PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Dominion, Volume 9, Issue 2683, 1 February 1916, Page 4

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Very interesting events appear to have been astir in Greece during the week or so that has elapsed sinco KiConstantike retired lamenting into the. background after, mak;-

ing his Yes-'No pronouncement upon the policy and actions of the Allies within his national frontiers. Two reports, apparently quite independent and coming from widely separated sources, agree in suggesting that Greece is being subjected to pressure by the Allies, though thev differ to some extent regarding the nature of the influence, thus being exerted. The Athens correspondent of the Observer states that the Allies have hinted to Greece that it is to her interest to demobilise m view of approaching development. 1 ;. Tiio somewhat different story conies by way of Amsterdam from Berlin that the Bulgarian Minister at the German capital has expressed a, fear that the Entente Powers will compel Greece to submit to their belu;sts. From the context) it appears that the meaning of this phrase is that Grecce may be. compelled to enter the war. Though these stories differ at a surfacc view, they possibly point to very much the same conclusion. The representations to Greece reported by the Observer correspondent would be not so much a direct suggestion as a presentation of alternatives. Presumably, if these representations have been made, the- Allies desire Greece either to demobilise or to take that part in the war she would have taken months ago had she fulfilled her treaty obligations.

Taking, this stand the Allies would have a strong case and occupy a strong position. Times have altered since their plans collapsed for the time being because Greece, under the guidance of I£ing Constantine, chose to betray her ally. The Allies, as far as is known, are now far advanced in preparation for offensive act-ion in which Greek aid is no longer essential, though it would of course be useful. In these circumstances it would be perfectly reasonable on their part to ask Greece to give full effect, by demobilising, to the policy of benevolent neutrality to which King Constantine has declared his country is definitely committed. As a soldier, the King of GitEECB will be able to appreciate to the full any reluctance the Allies may have to embarking upon an offensive campaign with a mobilised but inactive army established close to their main base and lines of communication. Taken at its full value, however, the suggestion is that Greece is being invited cither, to enter the war or to abandon those national aspirations of which M. Venizelos is the ablest exponent. If the Allies are asking Greece to demobilise and pressing the demand they are likely to bring her internal political divisions rapidly to a decision. Greece, in fact, appears to be at the. parting of the ways. To the extent that a demand by the Allies for Greek demobilisation would tend to force a decision as to entering or not entering the war, the suggestion of the Bulgarian Minister at Berlin that the Allies are subjecting Greece to compulsion may *bc warranted. But it is a form of compulsion which would, leave Greece an open freedom of choice between a policy of enterprise and the spiritless policy, marred by broken faith, she has hitherto observed. The compulsion would operate only in the way of enforcing a- definite decision in favour of one policy or ' the other.

A great deal of prominence has baen given in the news during the last few days to the spy who dined with the Kaiser in the ancient city of Nish, but there docs nob seem to be any reason for accepting him as a reliable authority on the important military questions with which he deals. All that is really established in regard to this veiled personality is that he has something of the storyteller's gift. He is quoted to-day as saying: "My few days in England convinced me that you are not taking the (Turkish) threats against Egypt and India seriously enough." If the spy has formed his opinions about Turkey and the other countries he has lately visited upon equally slender ovidcncc, these opinions cannot bo worth, much. Britain may'or may not be making adequate provision against Turkish enterprises aimed at India and Egypt, but a few days spent in England would_ hardly enable even a spy of exceptional qualifications to form a reliable opinion on tjic subjcct.

This and other weaknesses the narrative ol the spy must hinder any free acceptance ■of his information, and the reservation necessarily extends to the otherwise interesting account of conditions in Rumania which he contributes to-day. It is very pleasant news that tho whole Rumanian, army is crazy for war, but some better evidence of the fact is needed than a single doubtful and unsupported story. Much more plausible evidence as to the attitude, of Rumania and her relations with her neighbours is to be found in a message originating with _ the Sofia correspondent of the Berliner Tageblatt. It suggests, not that the Rumanian army is crazy for war. but that tho Rumanian Government is deliberately working out a policy which makes ultimately for war on the side of the Allies, and that developments under this policy have already reached an advanced stage. Tho facts, according to the correspondent of the German newspaper, are that four-fifths of the Rumanians fit for service are under arms— which at a moderate estimate would mean the mobilisation of anything from three to four hundred thousand men—and that the concentration of the Rumanian troops and artillery along the frontiers is so ordered as to constitute a direct threat to Bulgaria and Hungary, and to indicate that Rumania entertains no apprehension of a conflict with Russia. It must be said at once 'that this story is a little too perfect in its details. Rumania would be very foolish to concentrate her _ troops threateningly on the Bulgarian awl Hungarian frontiers at this stage, because by doing so she would be prematurely disclosing her plans (assuming always that these point fo an ultimate junction with the Entente) and inviting attack before her preparation's are completed or she is assured of adequate support.

It would bo very surprising to receive' confirmation of the story that Rumania, has given away her plans in this fashion. Much more probably she is carefully cloaking her intentions and retaining the fullest possible freedom of action. But it puts no strain upon belief to be told, as we arc told in effcct by this correspondent, that whatever warlike preparations Rumania is making <u'o viewed with alarm and deep distrust by the members of the Germanic Allianco and especially by Bulgaria. Nothing is more natural than that these feelings should be entertained by the Germanic Allies, nor is there any reason to doubt that they are warranted by the trend of Rumanian policy, though jt is most unlikclv that as definite indication as ths pqmspQ»dQnt alleges

have been given of the nature of that I policy. Setting aside these unconvincing details, the suspicions of Rumania to which he gives expression will go to strengthen an opinion which is steadily gaining ground that Rumania prepared to make common cause with the Allies when they have completed preparations for' a really powerful offensive in the Balkans. So far as the Balkans are concerned, Rumania represents to the Germanic Allies a danger in their midst, and there is no very obvious way in which they can eliminate the danger. The correspondent of the Bfrlincr Tmjrhlnll recommends that Rumania should be requested to explain her attitude—in other words, that she should be presented with an ultimatum—but this course easilv produce an opnositc effect to the one intended. Being 'warily determined to fight, if at all, on the winning side in the war, Rumania would be apt to regard an attempt to prematurely force her hand as an evidence of weakness and to act accordingly. Taking it that the general inclination of her policy is towards ultimate intervention on the side of the Entente, diplomatic pressure by the Central Powers, if it is attempted, is more likely to hasten than to influence her decision.

Not a great deal is added at time of writing to what has already been made known about the character of recent operations 011 the Western front. According to an 'unofficial message, French officers con'ider that the attacks of the past week represent, the enemy's maximum effort, but he does not seem in any of these attacks to have been within measurable distance of penetrating the Allied line. In some places, notably in-Northern France, the German assaults have been stopped only jn intense hand-to-lnnd fighting, but in not a few instances the attacking forces have been brought to a standstill by artillery fire. the battering of the enemy's fortified positions, which has been a normal feature of the Allied operations for months past, appears to _ have continued without intermission. The broad impression remains that the enemy must either be preparing some greater assault than he has yet attempted, or has wastefuliy expended his strength in minor enterprises which can yield him no commensurate gain. » * * *

An Amsterdam report states that the Germans claim that the prisoners captured south of the llivcr Sommc, and therefore a long way south of the known British froiit, included some English. This cannot bo regarded as conclusive, or even plausible evidence that the British front has been extended. Comment has been made upon the shortness of the 'British front as 'compared with the French, now that the numerical strength of the British Army has been so greatly increased, but in developing their offensive it will necessarily be the aim of the Allies to concentrate the greatest possible forGe in a limited area, Possibly the suggestive German report aboutBritish prisoners being captured south of the Somme is a case of the wish being father to the thought. Failing any more pronounced success, it is 'a vital matter to the enemy to compel the Allies to spread their forces in defence and hinder their effective concentration for an offensive stroke. There is no present reason to suppose that he has sueccedccl or is likely to succcccl in this aim.

A * * » While there is no evidence that the Germans have effected; any startling improvement in their Zeppelins, accounts of the raid on 1 aris on Saturday night indicate that they are using bombs of a ; much more powerful type than were used in their raids last year. One bemb. it is stated, pentrated a street and reached the subway of an ) underground railway, and other impressive details are given of the l»owo r of the explosives employed, ihe loss of life, also, was heavy, measured by the standards of former raids. The latest report so far received states that 25 persons were . killed and 30 seriously wounded. The damage' and loss of life were suffered, it will be noted, in a workingclass residential quarter of Paris. If they are using more powerful explosives, the. Zeppelins are evidently working under' their old limitations, and are no more likely than in the past to achieve any military object except by chance. The nature of Saturday's raid is likely to .reinforcc the rising demand for a policy of reprisal. It is likely that such a policy would provide a far more effective remedy than any scheme of defence against nocturnal raids. Paris bristles with anti-aft.'fl«a_ft defences, but the attacking airship on Saturday night got clear away, and it is now stated that another raid on Paris was made on the following night.

An unconfirmed report from Paris states that Persia is joining the Allies as a result of the success with which the Russians are stamping out the revolt of the Swedish-officered gendarmerie and other _ disaffected sections of the population. From some points of view it may seem to matter little whether- Persia joins the Allies or not. Regarded as an accession to their military strength, it is a small thing.' There is on paper a Persian army of quite respectablo strength, but the actual, strength of existing forces is veiled in obscurity. . Standard works of reference speak of 70 battalions of infantry, with a duo proportion of artillery, a body of irregular horse, and other arms, but admit that uncertainty prevails as to many of these units being actually in existence. 'For other reasons, however, the accession of Persia would be an event to be welcomed. It would tend to _ raise the prestige of the Allies in the Moslem world, and the full countenance and support of the Shah and his Government would assist them, to some extent in countering the German intrigues which aim at inspiring a holy war. While the reported adhesion of Persia is quite unofficial and lacks confirmation, there seems to be no doubt that the Russian expedition is rapidly extending its sway in a fashion to warrant a hope that it may soon havo the situation well in hand.

Keas are becoming fairly numerous on the higher peaks of tho Remarkables, savs the "1-ake County Press," and the shepherds on Kawarau Falls Station recently discovered several dead sheep which had evidently fallen victims to the birds. Last week Mr. J. 15-I 5 - si'lh'ide, accompanied by Dr. Edie and 51 r. Kennett, left the station at an early hour on a shooting expedition, and'after an arduous climb of about four hours, Lake Alta (7100 ft.) was safely reached. Several kens were, seen on tha shorns of the lake, and during a ptax. of two hours eioht birds wer.e sliot.