PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Dominion, Volume 9, Issue 2669, 14 January 1916, Page 4

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

The suspension for the present of the Russian southern offensive is announced in a message from Petrograd, which gives also what has every appearance of being an honest and dispassionate statement of the objects with which the offensive was undertaken, and the results it has achieved. It is claimed that the enemy has been diverted from France and the Balkans, and it is stated that ho has now brought up reinforcements, and that it is therefore not expedient to press the attack for the time being. This may seem a tame sequel to the great blaze of fighting which broke out recently on the Russian southern front, but 'a moment's i consideration will show that the results said to have been achieved are of very great : importance. It is to be said also that there is some evidence which tends to show that the claims made are a simple statement of fact. The; best proof that the Russians havo in fact compelled a withdrawal of German and Austrian troops from the Balkans is that the Allies have not yet been attacked at Salonika. That the Germans would attack Salonika if they could is certain.. The destruction of tunnels and bridges on the Vardar railway will hardly account for their failure to do so, since there are other transport approaches to _ Salonika which would almost certainly have been utilised had the necessary forces been available. Many explanations have been offered of the continued failure to attack Salonika, but the most plausible is that the Germans have not been able to assemble the necessary'forces, and it is not at all unlikely that the Russian offensivehas operated with decisive effect in compelling the withdrawal from the Balkans of Austro-German troops which would otherwise have joined the Bulgars, or the Bulgars and Turks, in an invasion of Greece. * * ft * There are no means of definitely testing the statement that the offensive in Southern Russia and Galicia influenced events in France and spoiled the enemy's plans in 'that theatre, but the claim is rot inherently improbable. If the Germans _ still contemplate an aggressive policy in the Mam theatres* the; must aim at concentrating upon offensive operations in one while playing for time in the other. The natural development of such a policy would bo to take action in prance while playing for time in Russia. The_ opposite course is clearly impracticable bv reason of the advanced stage to which the preparations of the Western Al-. lies have now been carried. Stronger motives than the Germans have for undertaking another offensive in the Western theatre before the winter ends could not well be imagined. They must cither concentrate with effect in one main theatre now or look forward to the war on two fronts in all its terrors—a simultaneous and concentrated assault by the Allies in East and West. It is not merely possible, but highly probable, that the Russian offensive has made such action by the Germans impossible. The fact at all events stands that with winter drawing to an end, the enemy has made no reallv serious attempt against the Allied lines in the Western theatre. His recent attacks have been developed upon no great scale, and the most important—the attack upon the French front in the Champagne

—was crushingly defeated. To-day there is news of a German attack in the Argonne, which as yet has failed to achieve results of any importance. Indications are thus being added to that the enemy is eager to take the offensive it the Western theatre, but it is plain that he has so far completely failed to develop his offensive on a scale promising to produce any material change, in the general situation. It can hardly be supposed that this state of affairs is in accordance with German plans and desires. The assumption is much move reasonable that a fullpowered assault upon the Allied Western front is made impossible by the concerted pressure of the_ Allies in East and West. This is equivalent to saying that the Russian claim to have influenced events in France by diverting the enemy from that theatre is both weighty and well-found-ed.

Apart from these larger issues it is stated that the Russian offensive cost the Austrians and Germans a loss of from 70,000 to 100,000 men during a period of three weeks, and it is mentioned also that the enemy's efforts to dislodge the Russians from Ohartorysk failed. This last is an important detail becausc it means that towards the northern flank of their attacking front the Russians remain established on the bank of the Styr, a river affording a strong defensive line. ■ They are thus favourably placed to resume the offensive when the hour strikes. Taking the evidence as it stands there is every reason for regarding the Russian offensive as a very definite move in preparation for the grand offensive for which the Allies are making ready. Its importance is not to be gauged by the ground it has gained. To split the enemy forces at a time when it is vital to his prospects that ho should be able to concentrate overwhelmingly in one main theatre and to compel the withdrawal of essential forces from the Balkans are positive achievements of immense importance. The position reached is that the enemy has been compelled to mass heavy reinforcements against the Russian southern front, which lie could undoubtedly employ much more profitably elsewhere, and lie can now weaken his forces on this front only at the risk of renewed at tack.' There, for the time, the matter stands. In all likelihood this preliminary effort is intended to lead up ultimately to a great westward drive -through Southern Russia and Galicia, but the time to press the enterprise and develop it in full power will como only when the Allies are taking similar action on the opposite front. .** # * It is no longer in doubt that the Austrians have captured Lovehen, the Montenegrin mountain overlooking Cattaro, and, so far as Montenegro is concerned, the prospects thus opened up are of the gloomiest. The Austrians are following up their initial success, and there is some reason to fear that the, Montenegrins may presently be no more able to retain a foothold in their own country than their neighbours and brethren, the Serbs. It is clear enough' that comparatively limited aid would have gone far to enable the Montenegrins to make good their defence, and when all allowances are "made for submarine blockade and transport problems on land it is not easy to understand why this aid was not rendered. The explanation presumably lies, however, in the difficulty of conveying supplies through the mountains. Mt._ Lovehen, a vitally important position,- was lost for lack of ammunition, and it cannot be supposed that this need would Jiave' gone .unsatisfied but for the existence of transport problems which defied solution.

The general position on the Adriatic sea«oard is to some extent obscure, but it seems probable that the Allies have decided to materially contract their operations in this region. It is announced to-day that the Entente has notified Greece that the Serbian Army is being transferred to Corfu, in order to save the soldiers from starvation. Corfu is a well-known Greek island, situated in the lonian Sea, opposite the Albanian and Greek coasts, where they connect. This news awaits confirmation, but if it is true not only is an early termination of the campaign in Montenegro implied, but a material contraction of operations in Albania as well. Witlf the Serbs removed there would remain representing the Entente in Albania only the Italian Expedition of 80,000 men. apart from Essad Pasha and his force of 20,000. Not long ago it was stated that the Italians nad extended their foothold along the coast from Valona to Durazzo. The removal of the Serbs rather suggests that the Allien may contemplate restricting their operations in Albania to the retention of these ports and portion of the coast-line. Corfu may, of course, have been occupied as a base, but it is hardly likely that the Serbs would have been removed from the mainland had facilities existed for maintaining them there. Jt * * #• Affairs 'in Mesopotamia have yet to take definite shape, but while the British columns moving up the. Tigris in an effort to relieve General Townshenp at Kut-el-Amara are apparently meeting with powerful opposition the latest report in hand states that they arc still advancing. An Italian report asserts that enormous quantities of German artillery are traversing Constantinople, going to Mesopotamia, but the present struggle on the Tigris is likely to reach a decision before "enormous quantities" of artillery can be transported over the long and difficult route from Constantinople.