The Dominion MONDAY, DECEMBER 6, 1915. A CRITICAL JUNCTURE

Dominion, Volume 9, Issue 2636, 6 December 1915, Page 4

The Dominion MONDAY, DECEMBER 6, 1915. A CRITICAL JUNCTURE

Recent_ cablegrams contain some , .striking indications that the German < people: are beginning to realise that j a very critical juncture in the war | has now been reached. A feeling of \ grave anxiety regarding the future f appears t.o pervade the nation. In , spite of the fact that tho armies of > the Central Powers have got posses- . sion of Russian Poland, the greater j part of Serbia, nearly ths whole of i Belgium, -and a considerable slice < of Franco, the pt.ople of Germany i see that, while en'i of the war i may be far off, their fighting power i has reached its maximum, and that 1 the down grade is about to begin, . if it has not already begun. There • can be little doubt that our enemies are at present anxiously regarding i the future. The fact that the Ger- \ man Socialists intend to insist tipon i discussing peace terms in tho Reich- i stag is significant. The glowing ac- : counts of tho achievements of the German forces are losing their power to maintain tie fighting spirit of the : nation. The working classes are having a hard time. According to the Yorwaerts thousands of people in Berlin are struggling every day to obtain a scrap of meat or a morsel of lard. This sort of thing was endurable as long, a-s tho belief existed that the war would soon be brought to a conclusion in favour of Germany, but as the hope of final victory recedes food' privations and other hardships become more difficult to'bear. Hope deferred is making the German heart sick. Wo are told that the public spirit of the people has lost its enthusiasm. They cannot understand why the Entente Powers, after their diplomatic defeats in the Balkans, have not inaugurated negotiations for peace. A leading Berlin newspaper complains that 'while Germany has always been ieady to make peace _ her enemies prefer to double their forces, and refuse to confer with German omis- , sarics in neutral countries. These things are making the people realise that they are not being told tho whole ■ truth. ' They are becoming disappointed and resentful _ There are signs that the authorities recognise that a 'serious crisis must soon be

faced. From their point of view the psychological' moment for. a settlement has como. As the London Daily Telegraph remarks, they no doubt feel that if any bargain Ss to bo made on the strength of Germany's successes over the whole line, it' must be. done before these succosses' begin to bo reversed. It would, of course, be sheer madness for the Allies to think of peace at such , a moment. .Their only answer to peaco proposals should be, as has been so often said, to hit harder than ever.

The Lohal Anseiger, a o leading Berlin newspaper, m discussing tho present military situation, makes this significant remark: "Unfortunately, we are not reassured regarding the future, considering the numgcr of our enemies.'' Major Moraht, the well-known German military writer, writes in a_ similar strain. He regrets tho inability of tho Germans to get to Paris or to secure a "Sedan" in Poland, and adds:

"Our attacks have not been failures, but we are surrounded by active enemies." This is equivalent to an admission that though Germany has gained successes 'ho has nowhere decisively succeeded. It is more than a coincidence that these ndmissioui}, and thin insistent i demand lor the waeideration pi

terms of peace, should take place just about the time when, according to the best expert calculations, the enemy is coming to the end of his reserve in man power. Mr. Hilaire Belloc discusses this point in a striking article in the Sunday Herald. Ho tells us that a calculation in which tho War Office, of every Allied Power has been absorbed for months past shows that the ctcclino of the enemy's effectives is beginning. In this calculation every kind o£ intelligence and evidence procurable has been used, and the result reached is very nearly the same in the case of every competent observer. He goes on'to say that

It is open to all of us who caro .to follow the important elements of tlio war and to neglect mere sensationalism to read what the General Staffs have published upon these 'matters. Many of us have tho further privilege of speaking to those who have actually undertaken the calculations, and who have corrected the figures under every possible check and counter-check, and the general result is this:—No one in Europe occupying such a position—of the hundreds, or rather thousands, engaged in the work—puts the decline in the enemy's effectives later than the turn of the New Year. No one puts it earlier than somewhere in the month of November. In other words, you have within a margin of less than two months a period certainly established —established with mathematical certainty -after which tho enemies' effectives begin to decline. /

Like other students of the war,' 1 Mb. Belloc is convinced that no decision can be expected in the southcast of Europe. It is, he says, on the two great fronts, the Russian and the Western, and particularly upon the latter, that the war can ' be won by the Allies, and it is there that tho rapid decline of enemy numbers, when it begins, will produce the most startling and decisive results. Mr. Belloc regards the Balkan campaign as a "diversion" made with the object of tempting the Allies, before the decline commences, to commit some folly, or to break up internally, and so save the situation for the Central Powers. It would be a colossal blunder for the Entente nations to show any sign of ■weakness or weariness. We must not give our enemies the slightest ground for hoping or believing that we are feeling the strain as severely as they are. The British Empire has not' nearly reached the limit of its resources either in men or money. New Zealand has certainly not done her utmost—far from it. Now is the time for oui; young manhood to make it clear beyond all shadow of doubt that this part of the Empire is not slackening in , its effort. Recruits are wanted to-day. It must not be our fault if the Germans find reasons for taking new heart. We must do our best to knock what heart remains out of them. The most effective way of doing this is to send more and still more men to the front. 'Notwithstanding all this peace talk it would be a fatal mistake to imagine that the enemy is practically beaten. Germany knows that our victory means her downfall, and she will fight with all the might she possesses, and to the bittev end, rather than submit to the terms rhich the Allies, for the future peace of the. world, must insist upon before they sheathe their swords. .