PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Dominion, Volume 9, Issue 2634, 3 December 1915, Page 4

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

There is a great deal of news today bearing upon the military and political tangle in the Balkans which nrtw absorbs bo large a share of attention. At a surface view military events have given place for the time being to planning and preparation for a greater ana more intense struggle than even Serbia has Witnessed in the days of her gallant but hopeless attempt to stem an overwhelming invasion. Practically the whole of the Serbian territory is now in the hands of the enemy, though' the Serbian Army, much reduced, but unconquered, remains a factor to be considered. In the refuges it has sought in Montenegro and Albania it is still formidable and may become much more so if the Allies are able to replenish its equipment and'supplies. According to the last news received the AngloFrench Army still holds a limited area of South-Eastern Serbia, and covers the western section of the Salonika-Constantinople . railway against approach by the Austro-Ger-mans and Bulgarians. Unless current reports misrepresent the position the Balkan campaign has halted for the moment at this point. There is no word a!t present of the enemy pursuing the retreating Serbians beyond the western frontier of their country , and some of the enomy_ reports imply that no such pursuit is intended. A Sofia communique states that a Serbian defeat at Prisrend,_ which is in Western Serbia opposite the junction of the Montenegrin and Albanian frontier, is probably the end of the campaign against, Serbia. Predictions and threats of an invasion of Montenegro have not yet taken definite shape. The Austrians, indeed, claim that they , are driving the Montenegrins in the direction of Plcvlie, but.this place is a border town almost at the north-eastern extrenlity of Montenegro. >

The question as to what the enemy will next attempt up the widest possibilities, but while it awaits an answer there is a certain amount of encourajgement to be drawn from .his tentatively manifested inclination to set a limit to his Balkan enterprise. Not much weight can be attached, of course, to vague reports that Germany is not going to continue the war against Serbia, and the somewhat similar intention credited to Bulgaria, but in considering this exceedingly undefined Balkan situation a hill margin must be allowed for the ultimate effect of Allied preparations which by this time are presumably well advanced. On visible indications it i's the most dangerous weakness of the Allied position tha't Russia is not ready to act and may not be ready for week 3. With Russia attacking Bulgaria in the_ north, the Allies, based on Salonika would be posted in a position of advantage, at the outer end of a practicable, _ though lengthy, route to' Constantinople. Russian aid being for the time withheld the Allies can only be regarded as occupying a perilous outpost, and if the danger that Greece may fall completely under Austro-German domination is as great as current reports imply, it would be good news to hear that the Allies had withdrawn from Serbia and wero in close touch with.Salonika, where their re-embarkation, if it bccame necessary, could be covered by naval force. * . * # * According to a correspondent at Rome, Greece has notified- the Allies that their demands regarding the evacuation of Salonika by Greek troops and the surveillance of the Greek coast by Allied patrols are not acccptable, and would practically amount to a violation of Greece's neutrality! Made on such grounds these objections wear a- distinctly , hostile look, and can only be attributed to enemy influence. In arguing from' the standpoint of a neutral, if she has done so, Greece is wilfully ignoring tlie facts of the position. Except in a limited sense she is not a neutral'in her relations with the Allies, and if she were she would have been guilty of violating her own neutral obligations by inviting and admitting the Allied troops to her territory and by every facility she has since accordcd them. Accepted at its facc value the account given of the position taken by Greece would practically, imply, that

I th Anglo ; Frcnch Army on the Salonika railway is threatened in rear as well as in front. ; If it is not so threatened and still occupies a reasonably secure position it must be assumed that Greece is in better control than news in hand suggests. As to this, much must depend upon whether the enemy is in a position to follow up the expulsion of the Serbian Army from Serbia by an overwhelming attack upon the Allies calculated to drive them back into Greece.

Taking only a surface view there may seem to be little standing in the way of such an enterprise s'y the enemy, but it cannot bo taken for granted that the bulk of the AustroGerman and Bulgarian troops who have recently been engaged in Serbia _ are now free to concentrate against the Allies in the south. One reading of the situation as it stands would be that the Bulgarians are desirous of calling a halt, in the hope of retaining what they .have won, and that the Austro-Germans are unable to throw such a force into the scale a-s would be likely to drive the Allies back into Greece. Even if Rumania maintains a balanced att-icude for some time to come events should soon do a great deal to clear up the position, but meantime it is.by no means impossible that the enemy is feeling severely tho drain which the Balkan campaign has imposed. There aie stories to-day- of a great movement of troops eastward from _ western and southern Germany which might be taken as heralding an extension of the German offensive either in the Balkans, or in Southern Russia with th# object of dcflccting the counterstroke which Russia is preparing to launch by way of Rumania. Taki",or the position as it is described in the main theatres, however, it is to be doubted whether Germany is in a position to send- many additional troops into the south-eastern theatre and there arc problems in this region other than that of destroying tho Anglo-French Army based on . Salonika which seem to demand her attention and the massing of force.

First and foremost 'amongst these problems must be reckoned that of stiffening the failing Austrian defcnce of the southern Isonzo front, where the Italians are assaulting apparently with open prospects of breaking through at no very distant date. Rumania, in all likelihood, represents another problem, and a grave one. Many reports today touch upon the attitude and probable of Rumania, and they almost uniformly support an opinion that Rumania is at least strongly inclined toward the Entente. As the news goes this opinion is held with confidence. in Paris, London, and Rome. It is not by any means an unfavourable sign that no such expression of opinion has come, at time of writing, from Petrograd. Since Russia is most immediately concerned it-may be supposed that opinion is better informed in Petrograd than_ elsewhere on the subject of' Rumania's intentions, but 'the same fact supplies an obvious motive for reticence on the part of the Russian authorities, and a strict guard upon information which might be of use to the enemy. Me. Maetin Donohoe takes another view of developments in Rumania than that of most of the correspondents who are quoted to-day, and suggests that the_ Austro-German propaganda is achieving a measure of success, but he is in a decidcd minority. ' The prevailing view is that , Rumania leans decidedly towards the Entente.

A late message declares on the authority of the Italian newspaper Gorriere Delia Sera that the Russians have once again invaded Bukowina (the Austrian crownland adjoining the Rumanian western frontier), that the Russian concentration on the Danube continues, and that Rumania is concentrating mo'e troops on, the Austrian frontii-r. News so important calls for confirmation, but taken at its face value it points to a full understanding between.Russia and Rumania. It is not news that the Russians are concentrating on the Danubian frontier of Rumania; but a renewed invasion of Bukowina suggests the possibility of Russian co-operation in a Rumanian invasion of Eung±-;v, while the concentration of Rumanian troops on the Austrian frontier— that is to say, o~ ihe frontiers of Transylvania, which Rumania covets—speaks for itself. ,

Vaguely as the position is indicated, (except in this unconfirmed Italian report, it contains clemcnls which suggest that the Austro-Ger-mans and their Allies may vary pcs:sibly be irtent rather upon c'.eff-nc" than upon an extended aggression in tho Balkans. They liavo '"'cured communications of a bind with Turkey, but the best route—the Bel-grade-Sofia railway—has been, put out of action by the Serbs, and according to a Berlin newspaper quoted to-day it may be months before unbroken railway communication is established with Constantinople. Until the railway is l restored the only heavy transport route available is one which follows the f)anube along the Rumanian fruitier. The protection of this route will' necessarily detain a considerable force. It will be noted that one report today, states that'fifty thousand Austro Germans have beeii at Rustchuk, a river port in Eastern Bulgaria. _ The ess.in <ial fact to be considered is that the eiismy Las by no means gained a safe and easily defend9d line of communication with Constantinople. On tho contrary, the route he. has gained is threatened in a fashion which may very well demand the concentration of a large part of his available forces in its defence. Between them the AustroGermans and Bulga-rs have to guard extensive land and sea frontiers, they must maintain at least a guerilla war with the Sorbs, and they are threatened by a formidable Enssian _ attack, with or without Rumanian co-operation at no very distant date. The Germans, of course, cannot regard with indifference tho continued of the AngloFrench force in _ South-Eastern Serbia, but in their general circumstances in the Balkans it is not unlikely that they may find it impossible to dislodge tho Allies unless by the intrigues in which they specialise they can succeed in winning Grcece to their side.

According to Bucharest reports quoted m a late message from Borne, the Germans have withdrawn large forces from Bulgaria and Serbia to meet the Russian offer sive in Galicia ancl Bukowina. If these developments are under way there should soon be positive evidence of the fact. Meantime news as it stands supports the opinion which has been tentatively expressed that the Germans are necessarily intent rather upon defence than upon a developing offensivein the Balkans. In conjunction with Italian attacks on the

Isonzo, Russian attacks in Galicia and Bukowina, to be followed by a Russian advance through Rumania into -Bulgaria, would threaten the Germanic combination in the- Balkans with comprehensive envelopment. It is also true, of course, that if the Allies effectively loose their forces in the northern part of the Balkan Peninsula and the adjoining territories, scope will be afforded for aggressive action by the army based on Greece. \ • * * »

Splendid news is contained in _ a Petrograd communique dealing with the campaign in the Caucasus, the theatre to which the Grand Duke Nicholas has been relegated by the Tsar. Taking the offensive soutji of Lake Van, the Russians have dislodged the Turks from fortifu'i positions, and the enemy is now .0 full flight to the westward. fn the Caucasian campaign, at-least, where the Russians have been so long at a standstill, the hour fov action appears to have struck, and it is highly probable that the forward movement in the Caucasus gives the signal for decisive action elsewhere in the Near East.