PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Dominion, Volume 9, Issue 2595, 18 October 1915, Page 4

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Though events are marching rapidly in tho Balkans the campaign has not yet taken shape as one in which the contending forces arc visibly opposed in known strength. All the fignting so far reported has been between the Austrc-Germans and the Serbs in Northern Serbia and between the Bulgarians and the Serbs on the northern scction of the

eastern' frontier of Serb's. At time of writing thorc is no news of the Anglo-French army in eastern and south-eastern Serbia having come into contact with the enemy, nor of the Russian landing on the Black Sea coast, though this last is declared to be' imminent. Obviously until the area of conflict lias been extended considerably beyond its present limits the prospects of the campaign are more or less open. The announcement that Greece has decided not to intervene meantime on behalf of her ally materially weakens the position of the Entente and makes it somewhat unlikely that success will be reached in the effort to prevent a linking-up of the Austro-Gcrman, Bulgarian, and Turkish forces, but on, the other si do of the account is to bo set tho blockado of the Bulgarian Aegean coast which has been instituted by an Allied Fleet—the first manifestation of the sea-power the Allies are ablo to bring to the aid of their land forces both in tho Aegean and the Black Sea, and which may exort a potent influence upon the future developments of the campaign. It is now practically certain that at least the initial contest of tho campaign —with domination of the road to Turkey as the reward of victorymust be fought by the three principal Entente Powers and Serbia. Rumania is not likely to be readier than Greece in taking the field, and it is now reported that Italy will co-operate with her Allies only by continuing her pressure on Austria.

Another hope which has been considerably canvassed in rcccnt cablegrams must also, i't would now appear, be dismissed as without foundation. Circumstances lend weight to tho warning uttered by Dr. Dillon that British leanings towards Bulgaria and hopes that the Bulgarian army and nation may disavow the action of their leaders and rulers are dangerous at the present juncture. According to Dr. Dillon most of the recent reports of riots and mutinies in Bulgaria are unfounded, and, in his opinion, tho Bulgars will be faithful to their King unless he is ovortaken by failure in the schemes upon which he has embarked, in which event they will appeal to their Slav brethren in Russia. In all probability this is a just estimate of the_ position. Any undercurrents of disaffection that exist in Bulgaria, may develop into a factor of some importance in the event of an Austro-German and Bulgarian defeat in the Balkans, but it would be foolish as matters stand to consider the Bulgarians in any other light than as committed body and soul to the cause of their Austro-Gorman allies.

A German newspaper gives currency to a report that the King of Greccc has written to the King of Bulgaria suggesting a Graeco-Bul-ga.rian agreement. The known sympathies of the King of Greece rnako it not impossible that he has sought to reach an understanding with Bulgaria which would impose further shackles of neutrality on his country, but the German report on the subject may easily run ahead of facts. Making it-his object to get into touch with the enemies of the Entente, King Constantine might conceivably ovcrrcach himself. The political situation in Greece is evidently very delicate. It is stated, for 'instance, that M. Venizelos made no rejoinder to the Premier's expressed hope that tho Cabinet might have the support 'of a majority, and tho comment is added that it is clear tho Government exists on sufferance by the tacit consent of. tho majority. It is a reasonable deduction from the circumstances as they aro represented that the Zaiiiis Government is only likely to retain office in Grcece while the Austro-German and Bulgarian combination retains the initiative it has grasped in the Balkans. Any serious check to the Gorman enterprise would give M. Venizelos the opportunity for whichf he is presumably waiting, and it is unlikely that the subsequent policy of Grcece would be to the liking of King Constantine.

So far as military events are concerned it is evident that the Serbs are justifying every expectation based upon their magnificent achievements last year. According to one correspondent the AustroGermans have lost already 20,000 killed and 50,000 wounded in the area on and south of the Danube which up to the present has witnessed the heaviest fighting of the campaign. There are no means of testing these figures, but that the Serbs are offering the "incredibly stubborn resistance" upon which Austrian newspaper are said to be commenting is sufficiently proved by the position of the armies. Powerfully as they have been assailed the Serbs still occupy the almost untenable north-eastern corner of their country round which the Danube runs into Bulgaria. The AustroGermans, however, are still slowly forcing their way south from the Danube, and the Bulgarians, according to a German report, hold the mountain passes on a section of tho frontier north-eajst of Nigh. So far as this section of the campaign is concerned the Serbians are in the position of occupying a wedge, one side of which is being steadily driven in by tho Ausfcro-Gcrman southward advance from the Danube, while the other side, on the eastern frontier, is menaced by tho Bulgarians. The withdrawal of the Serbians from this perilous salient would at once open the route along the Danube into Bulgaria to tho invaders, and such a withdrawal will become inevitable unless the AustroGcrmans are quickly brought to a halt. A continuation of their advance would in itself enforce a retreat from the all-important section of the Danube even if_ the Bulgarians did not succeed in developing their invasion, _ which as yet has been chocked within a mile or two of the Serbian eastern frontier.

Though the Germans have suffered some heavy losses by submarine attack in the Baltic, including that of the battle-cruiser Moltkc, the attacks made by the underwater craft upon their shipping have until recently been spasmodic. British submarines have now entered upon a regular campaign in tho Southern Baltic, which has already resulted in very heavy loss to the enemy. Danish reports declare that in addition to a number of merchant ships two enemy torpedo-boats have been sunk in the Sound, one of them, it is stated, by a submarine which relied upon its guns instead of torpedoing its adversary. It seems rather unlikely that ii snbmarino would offer itself as a target to the more powerful guns of a desfcjoyer, but as the reports run there can be little doubt that German patrolling squadrons and British submarines have been in action, and that the former have come off second best. There is adI mittndlv some doubt as to tie exact ' details." No such qualification at-

taches to an official report that a British submarine sank six German transports and compelled one to run ashore. The locality of the exploit is not staled, but Ihe report accompanies .Russian news, and the Baltic is the only se-s. in which Gorman transports are likely to be encountered. Probably the squadron thus dealt with was bound lor Libau or was setting forth upon such another enterprise, as was defeated some weeks ago in the Gulf of Riga. In any case the squadron would certainly he under naval escort, and the exploit of the submarine must be accounted a very notable one.

If the submarines in 'the Baltic continue their campaign on its present lines they may exert a more powerful influence upon the war than the German flotillas have yet approached. Heavy as their depredations have been, the German submarines are as far as ever from instituting an effective blockade of Great Britain, but an effective blockade of the German Baltic seaboard seems to lie within the bounds of possibility. ■ The blockade of the sca-transport routes which the Germans would otherwise be able to uU.jse in furtherance of their campaign against Russia is equally important. The actual achievement of the Entente submarines in the Baltic may ultimately appear to be neither more nor less than that of neutralising the enemy's sea-power in the one sea in which he has a predominant force in surface ships. The Baltic is at all events thg only sea in which the submarine has oome within measureable distance of attaining a definite ascendency. German submarines have wrought havoc both in the seas around Great Britain and in to Mediterranean, but they have nowhere achieved the decisive success of compelling the abandonment of a trade route or a route of military supply. It is probable, on the other hand, that' the Germans, as a result of submarine attacks, are making very limited use of sea-transport in the Baltic. Their latest experience will certainly incline them in that direction.

An official return gives the total of British casualties at the Dardar nelles as 92,699,. including close upon 20,000 dead. Australian and New Zealand losses total 29,121, including nearly 6000 dead. These figures were possibly in the hands of lioed Milner when he advocated, in the House of Lords, the abandonment of the Dardanelles campaign, but they do not of necessity point to the advisability of that course. The Allied Army on Gallipoli has won its footing at terrible cost—increased undoubtedly by the warning given to the enemy by an abortive naval attack—but it is fighting for a- prize which, if it were won, would balance even the heavy sacrifices entailed in winning it. The opinion is evidently gaining ground to some extent in Great Britain that it is hopeless to further press the direct attack on tho, great sea fortress of thfi Turks, but there is weight also in. the view taken by the Manchester Guardian that the "proper reply to tho defection of Bulgaria to the enemy would have been a-n .attack upon' ths Turks in overwhelming strength. Even at this late stage there is a bare possibility that such an attack may do delivered, but it must bo recognised that if tho Austro-Gcrma-ns succeed in passing supplies of war material through Bulgaria into Turkey ths prospect of any early success at the Dardanelles will be diminished.

A developing intensity! of conflict is reported in the Western theatre, which points to the probability of developments of the first magnitude in the near future. In the attacks and counter-attacks of the last few clays fortune has not always favourod the Allies. The British have maintained their hold upon the ground won south of La Bassfee a few days ago, and made some further headway, but the French lines have been penetrated—apparently for no great distance—at the western end. of the front which witnessed the opening attack of the great offensive in the "Champagne. They were dislodged also from the summit of Hartmannsweilerkopf, the commanding height which overlooks the Alsatian plain towards Mulhausen, but this position has been recovered. In the other main campaign the Russians report a series of local successes.

Tiie proud distinction of being the first New Zealander to win the Victoria Cross in this war belongs to Corporal Bassett; a soldier who has been decorated for conspicuous heroism under a crucial test. His achievement in laying a field telephone on Chumik Ba-ir in full daylight and under the heaviest fire, called for cool self-possession as well a's the perfection of daring, and he has worthily earned the supreme reward of valour: