PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Dominion, Volume 8, Issue 2539, 13 August 1915, Page 4

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

With the war in its_ present state and the biggest operation in sight — the German offensive in Poland—going definitely against tho Allies, it is just as well to make some allowance for an introduction of new factors which may not now bo very long delayed. Measured on a basis of battles and invasion; the war has been going consistently ancl definitely against tho Entente for some months past, but there is another side to the picture. Duri-ng these same months the Germans have been pouring out their resources in men and material witn reckless prodigality, while the most powerful division of tho Allied forces has been governed by a policy of economy and delay. Delays are" not always dangerous, and the delay practised by the .Western Allies may perhaps be leading up to 'such an onslaught in the Western theatre as tho Germans may have difficulty in meeting. At all events, it will be to strike a true balance in the war until a struggle for supremacy has been witnessed in the Western theatre. So long as this great test is postponed it is not by any means certain that the German invasion of Russia-, now being pressed so vigorously, will turn to the ultimate profit of the invaders. * * * *

In the light of late events it is interesting to read in the New York ■livening rost tho of what it calls a kind of semi-official German programme. The! plan is—(l) To continue and develop the Russian offensive (as is now being done); (2) to make a mighty sweep against the French in Alsace and Lorraine, so as to recover possession of every foot of German territory; (3) then at onco. to make peace overtures. If the rumours of German peace overtures which have, been rife of late havo any foundation at all, they no doubt rest upon some basis of this kind, and it may be said with a good deal of confidence that tho basis is very unsound. Even if the German plan were carried out to the letter, tho Kaiser and his Junkers would be likely to find that their utmost efforts had left them a long way short of' the point at which they aiuld demand and secure the pcace they desire. It is probable enough 'that the, plans of tho Germans aim at a deadlock promising an indefinite' hold upon the territory they have invaded, but the preparations of the. Allies point rather to a greater and more intense struggle than the war has yet witnessed.

As far as tlicy are available-, particulars of German losses furnish an even more definite indication of the progress of the war tlian the invasion of 'Russia, Franco, and Belgium, for an invasion can he rolled hack, hut Germany cannot in this war replace the man-power she has lost. 'To-day a message dealing.with German casualties is published which differs from an earlier one in adding the losses of the South German States to those of Prussia. The grand total of losses shown is 2,178,HB3. This means, if the information is correct (and it is said to be based on German lists), that Germany has lost more than a quarter, perhaps considerably more, of the total manpower with which she entered the war. Sot against related fuels, these figures should tend to allay

any misgivings aroused by the recent fortunes of the war. Though crippled for the time being by a lack of artillery and munitions, Russia has many millions of able-bodiecl men yet to draw upon. On the opposite front, France, it is true, has suffered heavy losses, but great British reserves arc available.

Austria's losses have certainly not been less in proportion to her total strength than tliosj of Germany, and it is estimated that she has mobilised from GO to SO per cent, the nlimber, of men mobilised by her ally. War wastage apart, the balance of strength against the Germanic Powers has been largely increased by the entry of Italy. Numbers are not by any means the only factor operating, but they constitute an important factor which goes with others to support the belief that sooner or later the Germanic Powers, having passed the zenith of their strength, will have to meet a crushing onslaught by tho Allies. * » * *

Very little is added by the news to hand to yesterday's accounts of the extremely important operations lately sct'on foot at tho Dardanelles, except Sir lan Hamilton's arresting statement that tho Australian and New Zealand Army Corps has nearly trebled the area occupied in the western zone of the Gallipoli Peninsula. This implies a. big forward move. At the lowest estimate, the Australians and Now Zealanders must have been holding five or six square miles of ground—possibly more—before the latest attack was opened. As yet tho baro outline supplied by General Hamilton's report is filled in onl.v by some details of casualties pointing to a big battle having been fought, but it is evident that by developments on the Peninsula itself, as well as by tho landing on the mainland north of Bulair, the general character ;of the campaign lias undergone radical change. Many reports of quite recent date have mado familiar the picture of the Allied troops on both the southern and western lines progressing as a rule oy -slow methods of siege warfare, but it was no warfare that enabled the Australians and New Zealanders to treble their area of occupation in a day or two of battle. . * * * *

The Balkan puzzle remains a puzzle, and late news regarding it serves hardly any better -purpose than that of emphasising ite complexities. On one hand it is stated that a solution of the Balkan problem—which means an agreement to take common action or pursue a common policy where the war is concerned—is at present unattainable, because none of the States wish to abandon their aspirations. On the other hand it is announced that matters in tho Balkans arc beginning to favour the Entente, as a-result of the offorts made by its diplomats to create a basis for a mutual agreement. This is contradictory, but some recent reports havo indicated' that Scrvia is manifesting . reluctance to cede a portion of Macedonia to Bulgaria in rcturii_ for her neutrality or aid. Possibly the chief activity of the moment is a united attempt by the Great Powers of the Entente to bring Soma to reason. Meantime Rumania is being bullied by the Central Empires, and, as the story runs, is being refused railway trucks ancl an outlet for her exports of grain. This is an extraordinary detail, because it might be expected that all possible supplies of grain would be eagerly welcomed by Germany and Austria, but if the story is true it supplies another reason for expediting the.Dardanelles campaign in every possible way. Already the necessity of providing an 'outlet for Russian grain supplies an incentive only second to the necessity of creating an avenue for the supply of munitions.

A late message states (on tlie an-, thority of the Piiris Journal des Debate) that the Entente Powers arc asking Servia and Greece to cede Macedonian territory . to Bulgaria and Greece the Aegean port of Kavala, as the price of her co-opera-tion. The proposal is on the lines of that made, with a similar end in view, by M. Venizelos . before he resigned. It cannot be said that the request is unreasonable, for Servia, and Greece also, if slio enters the war, stand to. win much more territory than they aro asked to resign, ancl tho general effect of the changes proposed would bo to adjust the Balkan frontiers basis of nationality.

Not much weight can be attached to the story that Italy has gathered 650,000 fresh troops "convenient for dispatch to France or tho Dardanelles within three weeks." Information of this kind, if accurate, would'bo gratefully received by tlie enemy, and the fact that it is retailed furnishes a good reason for supposing that it is not accurate. Ati the sariie time tho possibility that Italy may go to war with Turkey is not unlikely to materialise, ancl if it does the action of Italy would tend to bring the Balkan countries, and especially Greece, to a decision.

No very notable development in either of the main theatres or in the Italian campaign is reported at time of writing. Marshal von Hindenberg's presence in the Baltic Provinces perhaps implies'that the Germans arc maturing the promised attack on the flank of the Russian northern armies. Some messages declare that the Russians are about to retire from the fortress of Kovno, but neither Petrograd nor enemy official messages show the retirement i;o be imminent. As to operations east and. south of Warsaw, tho Petrograd communique indicates that tho Russians are firming, up, and have been reinforced on their now line. One enemy column in Southern Poland has been driven back, a refreshing departure from the normal tenor of the news during tho last few weeks. In tho Western theatre there has again been fierce fighting in the Argonne. In ono attack tho Germans, though repulsed and beaten back for a distance, retained a footing in the French first-line trenches. Detailed accounts of the recent battle at Hoogc, near Yprcs, show that the British made free and most effective use of a powerful artillery train.

For the second time a submarine has been sunk by a submarine in the Adriatic, but on this occasion the victim was one of the newer Austrian boats, and the attacker was an Italian submarine. The .circumstances must have been similar to those which led to the' loss of the Italian Medea, one submarine lying in wait with only its periscope showing, and the other rising and exposing itself to attack. It is re.-, markablo that two such unusual incidents should occur in the Adriatic within a brief space of time.

Natuiiaixv enough tlio Germans nmkti light of the recent naval encountor at the entrance to the Gulf

of Riga. A Berlin report alleges that the German attack was merely a reconnaissance to ascertain the position of the mines (which cannot bo true if Russian accounts of tho force employed arc accurate), and that two small mine-sweepers were lost. The Russian reports wore not very c-xplicit as to the ships sunk, and it is possible that their reference to the loss of a German cruiser and two destroyers was an exaggeration, but as to the broad position it is clear that- the Germans are not likely to obtain an effective command of the Baltic as a highway for sea transport while Allied submarine flotillas of any strength are ranging in its waters. If it were not for tho submarines; the German command of tho Baltic would be undisputed, but the reservation is a big one. The Baltic Sea being narrow, and broken in places by islands, lends itself in a high degree to successful submarine operations, and these conditions are intensified where a gulf like that of Riga is concerned. A great part" of tho mouth of the gulf is closed by islands, and the widest entrance is only about twenty miles across. Probably only a portion of this space is available for the manoeuvring of heavy ships. On tho whole there is a rather more dangerous threat to Riga in the German land operations than in anything that seems likely to happen in tho Baltic. And it is- to be added that whether or not Riga, is to be captured by land or sea 'operations' or a combination of both, its value as a seaport to the Germans, oven apai'fc from what the Allied submarines may do, is limited. Wintor is rapidly approaching, and Riga- on an average is frozen in for 127 clays in each" year.

The tone of a meeting held in London with the object of urging the Government to take more effective steps to stop the passage of cotton through neutral countries into those of tho enemy indicate that the cotton problem is still far from having been solved. It was emphasised that neutral countries adjacent toGermany were importing quantities of cotton many-fold greater than would meet their normal requirements, and the statement was made by _ Sir William Ramsay, a distinguished British chemist, that if we stopped supplies of cotton wo. stopped the war. _ Hi's attitude is an answer, to stories , lately current that the Germans are experimenting with wood-pulp as a substitute for cotton. In brief, he declared that cotton was the one substance required in the manufacture of munitions for which the Germans could provide no satisfactory substitute. The history of the treatment of the cotton problem by the Imperial Government' is, briefly, that in the early days of the war ail assurance was given to America that cotton would not be placed on the contraband list. Sincc Maroli last. Britain has . enforced a blockado under which powers arc taken to arrest goods intended to reach the enemy through neutral countries, compensation to tho owners of ship and cargo being assured. This blockade, however, has not prevented neutral countries importing big excess stocks of cotton which havo provided Germany with a considerable ' source of supply. Now that the new American crop is becoming available it is' absolutely necessary to devise a more elective blockade unless Germany is to be allowed to obtain a stock of cotton which will mean an ample supply of explosives for a long time to come.

A sharp difference of opinion with America is no doubt inevitable in the event of effective treatment of tho cotton problem, but even some American newspapers have admitted that disputes with Britain over interference with trade due to the war are based rather upon principles of law than upon any more substantial grievance. Tho Chicago Herald, for instance, points out that England's blockadc "hasn't been notably effective so far as an American tradestopper," and cites the following figures in proof of the 'faot: Decrease of American sales to Germanic countries, £67,000,000. Increase of sales ■to neutrals adjacent to Germanic countries, £60,000,000. Net loss, £7,000,000. As an offset, sales to tho four members, of the Entente have increased by £69,000,000. The amounts arc given in round figures. Possibly the statistics of American overseas trade might not show up so well if measures were taken to absolutely stop the passage of cotton to Germany through neutral countries, but it is none the less necessary to take these measures.