The Dominion. TUESDAY, JULY 28, 1914. IS IT WAR?

Dominion, Volume 7, Issue 2213, 28 July 1914, Page 4

The Dominion. TUESDAY, JULY 28, 1914. IS IT WAR?

Europe appears to bo on the verge of the-most devastating war. since the fall'.of Napoleon. Present indications at least point with sombre impressivcness' in., that direction. Though the report that war has been actually declared was not confirmed at time of writing, the movements of troops, the : establishment of a state of martial law. throughout Austria-Hungary and the* 1 attitude i and actions of tho Servians show that matters have been carried to such a stage 'that' it is difficult to see how either, of the parties can'l draw back. Aftor tho first blow has been struck oho nation after another may be drawn in until almost the whole Continent of Europe may become embroiled: What will Russia do ? This is the. first question that naturally arises, and the answer to a largo extent, will decide the fate of Europe. If Russia stands aloof other nations in all probability will not interfere. Shpuld Russia decide on interference then .Germany and other na : tions arc certain to join in. The general opinion,seenu to bo. that Russia is almost certain to come to the assistance of' Scrvia. As the greatbst Slav nation Russia could hardly/play a neutral part and look on:with indifference while -Servia was being crushed. Such an attitude would bo a great blow to her national pride and prestige. She.has not forgotten how, Austria took advantage of her weakness after . the war with Japan to'seize Bosnia and Herzegovina, and it is almost certain that she would resist by force of arms' any further aggression which would disturb tho balance of power in the Balkans in favour of Austria-Hungary. A few months ago a bitter controversy took placa between the German-Austrian and Russian Press, and we are now told that public opinion in Austria is so tired of these periodical outbursts, with their disturbing effect on trade and commerce, that the bursting of the storm would bo welcomed. Dr. Dillon declares that the assassination of the heir to the Austrian throne is not the real _ cause of the present crisis. The'dispute is the first symptom, of a gigantic struggle between, the Slav and the Teuton. It has been felt for years that such a. struggle must come sooner or later. Whether this great trial of strength is now about to commence will no doubt be revealed by the events of the next few days—perhaps hours. , It must be. borne in mind that Hungary contains a considerable Slav population, and quite recently facts were brought to light which pointed to an.active pro-Rus-sian movement in that country. Another point to be remembered is that the various racial elements of which the population of Austria-Hungary is made up are rather loosely held together, the personal influence of Francis Joseph, the aged Emperor, being one of tho principal bands of union,;, Austria' has thercfore ' to

consider the possibility of trouble at home before embarking on a career of aggression abroad. If Austria and' Servia should actually get to grips and Russia should take a hand, the attitude of Germany would , at once become a question of the most pressing importance. The German newspapers express approval of the Austrian ultimatum, and wo are told that Germany will como to the assistance of Austria if any third Power should intervene on the other side. It is stated that the Kaiser's Government is ready _to carry out to the fullest extent its duties under the Triple Alliance. And what will France do? It is well known that tho President (M. Poincahe) is in favour of a firm and strong foreign policy. The strengthening of the French Army by the extension of tho period of military service from two to three years was part of a concerted move between tho French and Russian Governments, Russia making a still greater increase in her military forces. The new national spirit which has arisen in Frcince will brook no further humiliation from Germany, and in any oase if Russia and Germany are drawn into the conflict it would be almost impossible for France to be a mere onlooker. This would mean a war of such magnitude that the whole world would be shaken. Though Britain's obligations as a member of the Triple Entente appear to be of a somewhat vague and undefined- char J acter, a serious alteration in the balance of power in Europe could not be a matter of indifference to her.' Even if she could keep out'of the frav a great European war would be felt by her in, many indirect ways. It , would'go far to disorgaaise the tuade of. the world, and would certainly have a most, unsettling influence on the money market. In this way the whole British Empire would be affected. The fact that the London Stock Exchange closed on Saturday in a state of, gloom is a pointed reminder of the w.ay in which war concerns other parties besides those actually engaged in it. Most people , ! will heartily agree with the statement of the British Attorney-Gen-eral (Sie John Simon) tEat Britain should play the part of, mediator. Nevertheless she may find it impossible to sbaJid aloof. The • present critical situation shows how foolish it would be for/the British' Empire to listen to the cry for disarmament or a "naval holiday." The growth: of the military expenditure of f oreigp. nations provides convincing proof that' the "holiday" idea is not Beri.oiisly entertained by other countries. The following figures speak for themselves:— ■■■'./' ' ■■•' .

, " ■ ' >.. 1907. 1913. '■/ > £ £ Austria-Hungary 17.330.000 22,580.000 Belgium ..."...... 2.280.000 3,2-10.000 France -. ...31.200.000 38.480.000 Italy 11.080.000 l-1.4f11.000 ■ Netherlands ....7 2,220.000 . 2,750.000 Norway ..' ■. 720.000 ' 860,000 Portugal ......... 1.690.000 2,290.000 Rumania 1.950.000 2.200,000 Russia .'..'42.220.000'•■■60.550.000 Spain ............. 6.3(50.000 , 8.840,000 : Swwlen'-..; 2.390.000 3.00,0.000 Switzerland .;.... 1,580,000 2,290,000"; The figures for Germany are not given to' changes in. the method of showing tl)e estimates. but it is'well known that the expenditure in that country: has enormously increased, while 'in France arid Russia the cost. of armaments has gone iip still further since 1913. The present 'is. so . grave and the possibilities so tremendous that no nation, however remote from' the probable' centre of \ conflict, can afford-to view it unconcern.