POLITICAL CRISIS.

Dominion, Volume 5, Issue 1393, 20 March 1912, Page 5

POLITICAL CRISIS.

THE COMING CAUCUS. MEMBERS ASSEMBLING. A PROBLEM FOIt THE FORTY. Members of llio "Liberal" party aro already assembling ill Wellington iu readiness for the caucus ivJiicli is to bo hold to-morrow evening for tho purpose nf electing a now loader. Yesterday's arrivals included tho Speaker (Sir Ai'tluw Guinness) and the parly Whip*;, Messrs. H. CI. Kll and W. J). S. Maedonald. Most of tho southern members aro to arrive this morning. A meeting of (Cabinet was held yesterday, but as only throe Ministers were in town it. is unlikely that any vital political issues were discussed. Nothing was mndo public in regard to tho business transacted.

There are reasonable grounds for supposing that a great majority of those who turn up will enter tho caucus with only the vague.st kind of notion as to whom their new leader will be. At no stago of tho riimour-lillej weeks which will end with llio caucus has popular belief credited any one man with having the party leadership in his grasp. Whatever happens thoro must bo a sweeping compromise, and only a trial of strength within tho party can settle tlio direction which tlio compromise will take. Tlio issue is complicated by tho alliance of the "Liberals" with the Labour members, who aro confessedly bent on squeezing them until they cannot bo squeezed any more. Strictly speaking, it is not a party, but an obviously disunited congregation of units holding opposed views that will meet on Thursday evening.

It is. still a prevailing belief that tho Hon. T. Mackenzie tons n prospect of election as leader. Mr. Miliar is generally regarded as a stronger man for tho position, but it is considered that his views are too detiiiito to attract united support from the heterogeneous units of the Forty. Mr. W. D. S. Macdonald is regarded as a possible l'rirao Minister, und Mr. G. Laurenson has been mentioned in some quarters, but never with any confidence. Mr. A. M. Myers is looked upon as a certain member of the reconstructed Ministry.

Mr. W. D. S. Macdonald, the Junior Government Whip, is being persistently named in some quarters as a likely aspirant for the Prime Ministership, and some peoplo go as far ns to believe that ho has prospects of being elected. Mr. Macdonald has not had a distinguished Parliamentary career, but he is Tecognised as a useful worker for his. parly, and his fidelity to its interests has never been questioned. Those who favour his chances point out that ho has never mado an enemy since 110 entered tho House, and

argue that ho is more likely to be selected as a leader than a mora brilliant man, who has given rise to differences of opinion with their resultant political enmities. A story which is goihg tho rounds at

the moment, and is accepted by a number of peoplo who are usually well-in-formed, is that Mr. Wilford will rotiro from representation of tho Hutt seat and that it will bo contested at tho next general election, whenever it may come, by Mr. W. 11. Field, who was unsoated in Otaki at the late election by tho Labour candidate. Tho story presupposes Mr. Wilford's elevation to tho Upper House and his appointment as Attorney-General and Leader of that Chamber. A decidedly peculiar position has arisen in connection with tho ceremony of laying the foundation stone of tho new Parliament Buildings. Tho Government— that is to say, the Ministry which will go out of offieo when Sir Joseph AVard carries out his promiso of resigning tho Premiership—lias decided that tho ceremony shall take place 011 Saturday next. Presumably the abdication of tho Prima Minister find his colleagues will follow closely upon the "Libernl" caucus, which is to bo held to-morrow evening. All incidental feature of Saturday'? ceremony will no doubt be that the name of (ha Hon. H. M'Kenzio will appear upon tho foundation stone as that of the Minister for Public Works, during whoso regime the building was erected. Interesting possibilities are thus created. Conceivably Mr. M'Kcnzie may terminato his career-as Minister for Public Works on or about tlie dnto of Saturday's ceremony. 111 that event his successor in ollico may regard tho inscription on tho foundation stono as a grievance entitling him (o redress. Ignoring possibilities of this kind, however, it is clear that Mr. M'Kenzio will shortly go out of office. 'Whether he is reappointed or not is another matter altogether, and undoubtedly some threatening complications would havo been safely prevented if the retiring Minister for Public Works and. his colleagues had delayed tlio ceremony which has been set down for Saturday until a moro stable condition of things political had succeeded to their present cliaotic uncertainty.

"WILL STAND ASIDE FOR OTHERS."

ME. T. E. y. SEDDON AND THE PREMIERSHIP. (From n Correspondent.) „ . Hokitika, March 19. During the fierce election tight here, tho Government organ, which 'is always laudatory of every action ol' the Premier and of Mr. T. E. V, Seddon, declared taat young Tom Seddon was u conspictw oils star in the political firmament, that he was the "sou of his father," and even went so far as to state that ho was a "greater man than his father." Of course tho people only laughed, and the other day tho morning paper saraistiwillv suggested that now was the psychological moment, for Mr. Sctldon's frieuds, and his journalistic, sponsor, to push his claims to bo regarded as New Zealand's next Prime Minister.

Tho Government organ replied that it .liofed that tho morning paper hinted at Mr. Seddon being the probable Premier. It went oil to say: ''Having suggested it in the way that it lias done, there is nothing more likely to transpire. Indeed, if Mr. Seddon were willing to accept (ho position it would prove an admirable appointment. Mr. Seddon has all the. fact necessary to fill tho delicate position at tins stage, and he mould easily be a conspicuous success at the post, for, strange to say, there is not a more popular personage in tho whole House with both sides thivn the present member for Westlaud. Mr. Seddon, however, will elect to stand aside for others."

Of course, even Mr. Seddon's friends laughed at such a ridiculous suggestion, but it seems important that the so-called "Liberal" party should bo notified that thev have among tlieni a greater man than Xew Zealand's "Record-reign" Premier, aud this fact should help them in making the selection on Thursday. Young Tom Seddou may well sigh to bo saved from his friends, but the most important point is this, (hat the largo resolutions which were passed bv (he small meeting—ono hundred pro-Liberals—held hero last week, and conveyed to (lie Premier, emanated from the. sumo font of political intelligence as did'the ludicrous suggestion that Tom Seddon is competent to occupy tho position of Primo Minister. The outside public, can therefore place the same importance upon tho resolutions as thoy do upon the suggestion of New Zealand being governed by an administration with young Torn Seddon as Premier.