THE CRISIS.

Dominion, Volume 5, Issue 1379, 4 March 1912, Page 6

THE CRISIS.

: WILL THE GOVERNOR ACT? PARLIAMENT MAY MEET NEXT MONTH. J "THE FORTY. ,, '■> Tho end of tho session has left tho I political situation as full of uncortainty 1 as ever. It now appears to bo possible '•'; that in spito of all that intrigue can I do, the new Ministry may bo forced to ■;■ face tho House at a comparatively early /, date, for there is a belief in certain !'. usually well-informed quarters that Par:t linmont will meet again in April. In ' this connection it is of interest to recall ' the Canadian precedent of 1858, as quoted • by Mr. James Allen in last Thursday ■ night's dobato from Todd's "Parliament- - ary Government in tho British, Colonies." '■:' The citation is from a memorandum by '■ the then Governor-General (Sir Edmund ~' -Jlead):- \; The Governor-General has no objec- -- tion to prorogue the Parliament without themembers of tho new Adminis- :; trillion taking their seats during the ■:. present session. But, if he docs so, I it. ought, his Excellency thinks, to be ' :'' on. an express understanding that Parliament shall meet again as soon «3 possible .... Until the new Ministers meet Parliament, his Excellency •; has no assurance that they possess '; the confidence of tho majority of tho ,i .Houfe. The business transacted in ' . tho interval, ought, in his opinion, to ::'. bo confined to matters necessary for .; the ordinary administration of the '■'~. province. .At present Parliament stands prorogued to March 30, and it is within the power of his Excellency the Governor to cause the Houses-to assemble, soon after that :'d.ate.

' Gloom and. Secrecy. In the'meantime, nearly all the members of Parliament have now returned to .their homes. • 'They havo departed with- '; out. knowing;anything about the personnel or policy of the Cabinet that is to bo - ; formed'.-Svithm tlio next "two or three ■n-oeics.; 'There is nothing to add to the Speculations'-on ; 'these' matters that have ' alreudy been published, except that the ■ : Hon. l J. : /K'. ' Miliars chances of leadership ' ere 'now..'thought in some quarters to be ' improving,- !tho'ugli.; still, not at all good, ' 'end that .a considerable increase of tho graduated'.land tax. will, certainly bo'pro- '. posed as a.uiatter upon .whicli. all, sections of last week's majority may be expected to agree. . The "Liberal" members as a body are apparently just, as mucli in the dark on these matters as their opponents. ; - Members of every shado of opinion admit the difficulty of framing a Cabinet and a policy which will retain 'the support of the Socialists and Labour members on tho one hand, and of the ■''.■.moderate, men ,from rural districts on. ' tho other hand. Threats of secession are ;':■')' already ,in the- air. And to a Govern--S, ment which, can only command a major!.j; ity.of tw ft q, or at most three,, any.secession »'•• means death. Moreover, the danger is ... ; xiofc merely tho loss of ono or two indivi- ':..<■ duals, so as to bring the Speaker's cast- !■' ing vote again into play, but the revolt '•'■■, of whole groups. The "Liberals," howV-. iver, are trying to believe that nil differ- ',[. ences will be adjusted by means of tho v: , , "tact" and "diplomacy" which are now 'V. to be exercised through channels secure % from public observation. Their assump- ;■; tion appears to be that this work will bo '■■'■] carried out by Sir Joseph Ward, at least :jj: tip to the time of his promised resigna- ;'; tion, and probably longer. They take It ;•■,'; for granted that ho will not resign his "' seat as member for Awarua, for some ' time to come, at any rate, and some of them anticipate that after the crisis is over he will again.be Prime Minister.

.The Coming Caucus. y.':- These are admittedly little better than ''/speculative views, and the Wardists them-: '.solves apparently do not expect to have ■ much definite information until the cauv"cu9. which' is to, be held in Wellington ■ about.: a.'fortnight hence. . All the forty \iiiembOT3' who voted;'for Wardism last ■Thursday will be invited to attend this but it is understood that somo iwill find it inconvenient to return. 1 to /'Wellington for the purpose. Tho official •'■ theory-of the causes is that it wilj ensuro /'tho -setting-up of a - Ministry in which ■ tho forty will have confidence. That is •i-why it i 3 jestingly described as "tho real (Parliament." Tho transaction actually contemplated (under whatever sort of formal palliation) is that tho Labour mem;*bers will nanie tho political (not of -course, monetary) prico of their adhesion, ami Wardism will offer'to pay as much •ofit as the Moderates will allow. Whejther a bargain can be- struck, and whe'ther the outcome will stand the test of a division in Parliament will be the next questions. As for tho answers, it is ;/.enough- to say at present that even prom- ■;;, inent "Liberals" now recognise the prob- '■• ability of a dissolution, and another gen- ■■'■. ernl election this year.

What's In a Name? An endeavour is being made to repreisent the composite majority of last week as a solid and united party, nnd to claimfor them tho new name of "Progressives." It is not likely that their right to such a. designation will bo allowed to pass unchallenged. In the meantime, seeing that they, have all obeyed the bidding of Sir Joseph Ward, it seems correct to call them "Wardists." But pqrhaps the only quito fair and necurate name for them is just "The Forty." Among the Ministerial Jonahs wh~o are supposed to be standing upon the deck of tho Cabinet ship, bound hand and foot and waiting to be thrown overboard, to satisfy the whale of party disaffection, there is one who is said to bo struggling violently. In other words, he has been told lie will have to go, and he says (if report speaks trnly) that he absolutely and definitely won't. Should ho carry this determination so far as to declare that, if excluded from tho new Ministry, he will voto against it, he may carry his point, for tho Forty cannot afford to loso a single vote.