The Dominion. FRIDAY, JANUARY 12, 1912. THE ALTERNATIVE IN CHINA.

Dominion, Volume 5, Issue 1335, 12 January 1912, Page 4

The Dominion. FRIDAY, JANUARY 12, 1912. THE ALTERNATIVE IN CHINA.

Although the fighting in China is still going on, und the negotiations between the Republicans and the Monarchists appear to be at a deadlock, it is probably safe to assume that the principal issue is settled. Both parties are agreed that China must have constitutional government, and must have it at once. The Manchu dynasty has, in fact, conceded everything except its own abolition. The main question still left open is whether the Government of China is to be a Republic or a limited Monarchy. If tho | latter, will the Manchu dynasty be ; retained, or will some new family mount the Throne! It is impossible at present to answer these questions, because'the immediate future of China depends upon the inter-action of vast forces whose relative magnitude nobody is competent to estimate. It is not surprising to find that the forecasts in the newspapers and reviews of different countries, while expressed in terms of great uncertainty, show a bias in accordance with the political institutions of the country of publication. _ English opinion leans to the English solution—limited Monarchy. American journals speculate upon the possibility of a Republic after the model of the United States. And the observer in either case dwells most upon those elements in the Chinese situation which favour his own quite sensible and not improperly prejudiced view.

Thus the London Times notes that the traditional reverence of the Chinese for the Throne as a sacred institution '-'dates back to times immemorial, and has survived numberless -involutions in the past which, however disastrous to the occupants for the time being of the Throne, never permanently affected its inherent prestige." The present dynasty, the Times admits, can never be a_ rallying point for patriotic enthusiasm, such as the reigning dynasty of-Japan proved when that country built tip a'now order of things. Butwhat is to be the substitute? "We certainly doubt profoundly," concludes the Times, "whether such a substitute can be found in the idea of a republican form of government, thoroughly alien to all Chinese traditions, and not least to that greatest of all Chinese traditions which is embodied in the doctrine of ancestral worship." The same general view n taken by Sin Henry Blake, exGovernor of Hong-Kong, who writes in the Nineteenth Century and After. He cannot believe that "the monarchical system that has in one shape or another lasted for thousands of. years is about to be swept away as lightly as thistledown is blown before a gentle breeze, at a moment's' notice, and without, previous agitation among an unlettered and peculiarly conservative population of -100,000,000." He points to the failure of the terrible Tacning rising of forty-six years ago, and the overthrow of the more recent Boxer conspiracy, which appears to' have been directed originally against tho Mauchu dynasty, as indications that the present revolutionary movement, if it has to contend against a compact well-drilled body of Imperial troops, may find its difficulties too great. He also points to certain Chinese religious observances for which au Emperor is re'quired.

Both these points are met, though we would not say they are disposed of, by some of the American critics. Tims Current Literature seizes somewhat eagerly upon evidence that the Chinese Imperial Army is a much less formidable force than has been generally supposed. True, the evidence comes by way of England, being drawn from the writings of an expert in the Mornini) Post, but the American journal makes the most of it by way of showing that Yu.ax-Swn-KiU, the banished statesman who has been recalled to save the Government, is ■ really powerless. ['He handles sham battalions of sham infantry for the simple reason that nothing in the shape of a soldier can be made out of a Chinaman." If that is so, the Republicans, with their enthusiasm and probably not inferior generalship, should 'be in the end more than a match for.the Imperial forces. As to the support which the Monarchy gains from its connection with religion, some observers consider that China may even break with her past to the extent of adopting Christianity as the official religion. Mn. W. T. Eixis, who writes" in the New York OuiInok, states that an eminent official loid him in Peking that he was advocating this step. Taoism and Buddhism were "practically dead," .Confucianism was not'a religion, but

a system of ethics, and many Chinamen in responsible places perceived the need of the restraints and impulses of a vital religion at this critical period. But one of the strongest indications of a republican future fov China is the influence of American ideas, through the constant stream of young Chinese going to the United States for higher education and returning to their native country. America, according to Mit. Ellis, "is looked upon as the special patron, protector, and leader of this ancient people, newly gone to school to the AVcst. The new ideals which to-day master this enormous Empire may be broadly described as the American spirit of democracy, human rights, fair play, and equal opportunity." It is, of course, quite possible that so good an American as Mn. Ellis may over-estimate these forces in their effect upon China. One of the recent cable messages from Peking suggests the possibility of a division of the Empire, with the present Government retaining the north and the Republic established in the south. In a country so vast and consisting of provinces that have hitherto been but loosely connected by the central Administration, such an outcome must seem at least credible, but in any case China is almost certain to become, when the crisis is over, a better governed and more prosperous country than she has ever been in the past.