LICENSING POLLS.

Dominion, Volume 5, Issue 1317, 21 December 1911, Page 6

LICENSING POLLS.

\ INCONSISTENT VOTING. I ft NO-LICENSE MINORITY BECOMES f . A PROHIBITION MAJORITY. i A TRADE VIEW 01' THE SITUATION. "Yes," said' the president of the New i Zealand Licensed Victuallers' AssociaI tion (Mr. J. S. Palmer), after checking ( tho Press Association, figures giving the i -results'of tho No-Licenso and Prohibition ! polls on December 7,'t.liat the interviewer I placed before him, "tho result, is icij i curious. On tho ono hand we . have, on , tho 'No-Licen'so issue, an actual majority' —a, small, one .it is true, but a majority: nevertheless —of tho electors of t lie. Do- ! minion favouring' Continuance, . and on f the" other hand a decided majority voting i tor National Prohibition. : J. think you I should place " tho. figures before your i readers, contradictory as they, may apf pear, because Ido not think is right I that the statements of, our Prohibitionist ' friends should go forth unchallenged, and ! that'we,. who are vitally' interested m i' the question. of No-License and License, I should :allow, it .to appear that'there is • not another side to this seemingly _ huge ; majority of . 60,000. odd-in favour of Pro- ! .hihition. Personally, I regard that vote ; in a very..dilferent light to that in which ■ it has been viewed by those who arc i aiming at the extinction of the liquor traffic. But, first-of all, I think you should get tho figures down. Take the i local; option issue first. • The approximate i results are summarised in the following ! table; and are, of course, subject to J modification by theofficial figures:— ... ' .. Local Option Issue. , . Votes." for Votes for Provinces.' • Contimianc'c. No-License, j Auckland 57,299 ■ • 61,449' ' llawke's Bay 0,55 l ; . 8,463. ' Taninaki 10,374 > .12,003■Wellington ■ 18,0% i' 1,775 : Kelson, Marlborough, , and Westland 2ft,057 ■ ■ 3(5,01 f i Canterbury •43,873"' 40,609 ' Otrfgo". and South'-' • liiid • 42,157 ; 44,012 ; .Totals 231,707 ... 229,960 '.'Now, allowing for informal bajjot paper's—and- thero" appear to' ' have." been- ; ruore : than the usual number," : Jlr. Pali nior continued, "thcro is no getting' away from tho fact that, on these..Press Asso- ; ciation figures, compiled from the returns 1 published in the daily-'and,weekly press, tho continuanco. vote has, for the first 1 time since 1899, overtaken tho No-Licenso vote. ; I think you.iiiight tako lheso figures: by. way ..of contrast, to show the growth' of this year's continuance vote. •' They giva tho results of tho'local option polls from 1394 (inwards, and," with the ' exception of this yearns totals, are ' comI piled from official sources. Here , they ; arc:—; . i .i ;;;V.;';^Votcsifor', t-j Vbtes fort Tear. . : -. Continuance.' 'No-License, t ISOi - " ' "3,771 81,ft30" V 189G ■ v.. . 439,580- r: 98,312:.' 1599' • 1 li2,if3 118,575 ' ! 1902' "■ '. '. 418.419 ' ' 151,524 " I JOS* 182,884' , '.j:'. 198,767. mos - ': 18'MIO; •• 221,171 ■ 1911 (approximate ■■ : '. totals) \.23i,707. 229,060, "There is evidence in'.these, figures of a .very .considerable growth in public opinion, in favour-of continuance, tho ad-; vanco being e<iual to rather niofo than 24, per cent. on. the 1 1908 .total,' while IKo' • No-Licenso .increase is barely equal' to 5 jter-ccnt. In tho. faco of this fact, it is i rather mucli to expect.us to believe that ■ the Prohibitionist sentiment is as strong as, tho national option figures niako it' appear to be, or that, the 60,000 majority, in that case, can be taken as a true gauge of public feeling upon the matter. , "But if the majority is (o bo token as a gaugo of public feeling in the business, . how do you account for the position? It I appears eminently unsatisfactory from 'tho trade' standpoint."

"That is so," Mr. Palmer replied; "but I rtm convinced a great many votes were given under a misconception of the issues on the national ballot paper. The local option issues were t clear enough. Trio .man who wanted to vote for continuance knew what to do ,but the man who' wanted to vote against National Prohibition wiis not quite so clear. You would be surprised if you only knew how many' seemingly intelligent men and women were misled. I know of scores of cases in which the top line was struck out, because tho voter really believed that, in doing so, he was voting against National Prohibition! I cannot prc'teiid to ex-plain-.why it- was so; I only know that feeling,.existed,-and many of mr fellow licensees in Auckland have told me of enstfs similar to those 'of which lam speaking. This confusion of ideas, I am convinced, helped-to swell -the National Prohibition vote. Had the issues been as clearly stated as they were on the Jocal option ballot papers, tho case would have been different/' "J* there anything in the detailed figures that suggests a misconception of the issues r

i A -' .F c 9,L <lcal > 1 think." Mr. Palmer replied.. Thero is first of all the extraordinary turnover of votes, in some places whore tho so-called Temperance T > 15 m ot i near '. v as strong as in other places. Take Palinerston North as a ease in point, 'Ihere, 3380 votes were polled for Coatiuuance and 27-18 against Prohibilion. Iu the same towii 3008 votes wero ■_ cast for No-Liccosb and 3615 for' Prohibition. I am not prepared to aeeejit the theory that the 1)00 odd electors, who.so vote represent the difference betjveeii the Continuauco and anti-Prohibi-tion votes, executed a deliberate volte face; and I ran only conclude, therefore, that thero was a misunderstanding of the issues. Again, take Napier. What do we find there.? An actual majority of 580 .■votes recorded in favour of Prohibition, although, on the Local Option issue, they V a3 i a , mn i° rit >' °f f° r Continuance. And—here is another point that bears out the contention that thero was a very real misconception of the issues—at Kapler thero were no less than '101 informal votes! Omld anything point more conclusively to a. confusion of tho issues on the part of tho voters? And that, confusion appears to have been pretty general, lor at Timaiu, in the South Island, there were 310 informal votes—the returns in my posFession do not show anything like the full extent of the informal voting, but it must have been, as .1 have Already suggested, very extensive—and nllliongh 3092 votes were cast for Continuance, there wero onlv 2792 polled against Prohibition. What'becamo of tho 300 votes constituting tho difference? Are l.hey to bo accounted for liy the informal - voting, or may we not reasonably" assume that- a very considerable portion of them were allowed, under a misapprehension of the issues, to swell the National Prohibition majority of over 600 recorded there?" Dealing more generally with the figures, Mr. Palmer proceeded to point out that while every province had recordod majorities in favour of Prohibition, Hawke's Bay,' Wellington, Nelson, Marlborough, Westl,iiid, and Canterbury have given Mibstanl.ial majorities for Continuance. "Look at the city figures." he said. "Wellington turned its 1008 No-License, majority of 3003 into a minority of 2378, tho votes contrasting in this fashion-.— WELLINGTON CITY. Votes for • Votes for Continuance No-License. 1903 . 7,979 ■ 10,072 1911 12,281 9,918 But on tho Prohibition issue the Continuance vote dropped from 12,291 to 10,888, audi' on tho results before me, there is an apparent deficiency of 122 votes, as tetween the Local Option and National , Prohibition ballots; that is to say, tlio itumWr of votes recorded for and against Local No-License was 22,212, while only 31,71)0 votes are included in the totals for and against National Prohibition. Tho difference can only bo accounted for by. informal voting, or tho refusal of the electors to vote upon tho National issue." -, Mr. Palmer similarly contrasted tho Christchurch, Auckland, and Dunedirt results. In 1908. he pointed out, the Continuance, vote in Christchurch was only 9801; 'this year it stood at 11,907. The No-License voto in that city had, on tho other hand, only advanced from 10.1)1 in 1908 to 10,049 in ,1911. Thus tlio Continuartco vote had increased by 21C3, whereas tho No-Liccnse voto merely H9so by 808. 'In Auckland, again, tho.

Continuance vote in 1008 was 8235; this year it stood at 11,158, thus rising by 2903, whereas the No-Licenso vote actually wont back from IIWJS in IMS jo 10.!I18 this year, or by 77 votes, liven in Dunetlin, whe-re the No-fdcense wave appeared to be strougesl, the CcmtinimmM> vote had increased bv 307;'s that is from 8772 in 190S .to J 1,845 in Mil. The NoLicenso vote in. Dunedin lmd,' _on tlie other hand, only increased by 5(17 voles, rising from ll,(i8G in lOftjt to .12,25-1 111 i--~ veav. In the-face- of.su'ph .results, Jlr. .Palmer is strongly of opinion that the strength of the .Prohibitionist vote is- largely due to a misapprehension of the issues. Asked if he.ttid not think such a line of argument would cut boili ways, he pointed out that the Prohibitionists had been at great pains to educate their people, unit that overy N'oLieeuse voter went to the poll with the instruction to "Strike out the top lino" ringing in his oars. "If we want to save the position and to conserve the liberties- of the subject, we must," he said, "profit by tho example of our vigilant and overactive opponents, and set about educating the people ourselves upon the important issues, on which (hey are called to express an opinion. If we fail to do that," he added, "wo can only look for defeat at the polls in 1911."