ELECTION CAMPAIGN.

Dominion, Volume 5, Issue 1303, 5 December 1911, Page 5

ELECTION CAMPAIGN.

j OTAGO AND SOUTHLAND. HOPEFUL -OPPOSITION OUTLOOK. Iliy TeSceraoh.—Suocfal CorrcaDondent.l Christchurch, December 1. A rcsidcijt of Christchureli, who has been on a visit to tho .south, gives tJio following impressions of tho position gained by many inquiries in various quarters. He states that tho contest in the Waitaki electorate appears to be between Messrs. F. 11.-Smith (.Opposition) and \V. G. Paul (Labour), the .Government candidate (Mr. ,1. A. Maephcrson) not appearing to make much headway. ' On a second ballot between the two first-named, Mr. Smith's chances are honoured, as Mi. Maephcrson's supporters, being largely farmers; are more likely to veto i'or tho Opposition. Mr. E. I'. Lees's chances of winning the Oamnru scat for tho Opposition aro considered exceedingly good. He will get a .fair amount of supiwrt in tho town of Oamaru, and tho country districts appear, to bo strongly in his favour. Mr. Hilligan, who is a baremajority man, will poll a good few votes ill tho town, and 'also in tho southern end of tho electorate, which goes down to Wailiouaiti. Mr. Duncan's yoto will be largely a sympathy vote.' A second ballot is practically cortain, with tho chances in favour of Mr. Loos. A keen fight i* taking place in Port Chalmers, tho member (Mr. E, H. Clark) having two fairly strong Opposition candidates against him, but, given the Laliour votes that will go to Mr. M'Carthy on tho first ballot, Mr. Clark is expected to about win on the second. Sir. G. M. Thomson (Opposition) is considered safe lor Dunedin North.

The most interesting contest, in Dunedin is, of course, between tho Hon. J. A. Millar and ill. H. 3). Bedford, but, in spito of Mr. Bedford's big meetings and tho enthusiasm of his supporters, . Mr. Millar and his following seem to bo confident of victory, though it .may be so close, that a second ballot—through the appearanco of tho Socialist candidatemay be necessary. Mr. Arnold is being run very hard lor Dunedin Central .by Mr. C. E. Statham (Opposition), and the result cannot safely bo predicted. Mr, Sidey, for Cavershaui, is a certainty. Mr. Jas. Allen has a strong opponent in Mr. P. M'Kinlav, tho Government candidate, who is an effective platform speaker, but Mr. Allen is a difficult man to beat, and tho fact that ho is giving time to other constituencies shows that hn is confident ol' his position. For Mataura, Mr. G. J. Anderson (Opposition) is expected to win fairly easily from Mr. M'Gibbon. Mr. R. Scott (Opposition) ii expected to hold his position in Otago Central, as neither of his opponents uro very strong. Mr. J. Horn (Government) is putting up a keen fight against the veteran Oppositionist, Mr. W. Fraser, for Wakatipu, but a recent visitor to tho district considers that Mr. Fraser is quite safe. Mr. Hanan will, it is thought, win in Invercargill. The Awarua contest is likely to bo largely decided by the, Bluff, and, if tho l'rime Minister loses tho support of tho workers there, tho chances of Mr. Hamilton will, be moro favourable. The ramifi-' cations of tho Prime Minister's business in Southland may play as important a part in his own favour as his politics. Though Mr. J". C. Thomson has two Opposition candidates against him in Wallace, tho lato member lias tho better chance, as being . moro generally known through the largo and scattered district. A second ballot may, however, bo necessary. Mr. Livingstone, who is contesting Clutlia on behalf of tho Government, is expected to poll well, but not sufficiently to oust Mr. Malcolm.