THE REAL PERIL .

Dominion, Volume 4, Issue 1115, 1 May 1911, Page 6

THE REAL PERIL .

DISUNITED EUROPE. ASIATIC DEVELOPMENT AND ITS DANGERS. A THREATENING OUTLOOK. A Pica for tho Abandonment by Cermany of her Present Aims and Ambitions. The Ccrinan Emperor's cwn Allsgerical Picture in Evidcnco Therefor. [To tho Editor.l Sir, —In the introduction to a series of articles that appeared in the "Daily Mail," by Robert Blatchford, he uses these words:—"! write theso articles because I believe that Germany is deliberately preparing to destroy iho British Empire, and because I know that we are not able or ready to dofend ourselves against a sudden and formidable attack. 1 write from a sense of duty, and from a conviction that tho. destruction of the British Empire wouH be a misfortune for Europe and a blow to civilisation throughout iho worl'i. I take this course against my own interests and against the feeling of most of my political and many of my private friends." There is no ambiguity about these statements by a man who is actuated by ardent patriotism, and ho does this, he says, "in the hope of arousing the public from the fatal apathy and complacent optimism which blind them to Iho greatest peril the nation has ever been called upon to face." When we find the Emperor of Germany on certain well-known occasions speaking of himself as an "instrument of tho Lord," and "an ally to Austria in shining armour," and in his message to tho Tsar using these, words, "the over-Lord of tho Atlantic to the overLord of the. Pacific," also the wellknown reference, to "the mailed fist," and further such expressions as theso: "Our future lies on the water," "The trident must bo in our fist," "Wo'must arm witli the view of meeting the most dangerous naval conflict possible" (see "National Review." Pages 396-397, May, 1905), there is but ono conclusion that wo can come to, viz.—that ho has been preparing and only waiting for a fitting opportunity to attack England. Arm, or Co Under? We are justified then in asking such questions as these: Whither goest thou? Whither art thou leading thy people and other peoples? Wo have leading newspapers telling us that "We must arm or go under." Is it any wonder, then, that wo have Lord Roberts in an important debate in tho Houso of Lords, on national defence, moving: "That in view of tho altered strategical conditions of land and sea in Europe, this House views with grave and growing concern Britain's inadequate naval and military arrangements." Speaking to the motion, Britain, said his Lordship, required a million adequately-trained men in addition to tho regulars to give tho Navy perfect freedom of action. His Lordship has never hesitated to give frank expression to his views, for ho has told us what a menace the presence of some 60,000 trained Germans in England are. It is an undeniable fact that a system of espionago has been carried on for some time past in England, as was tho case in France prior to the Franco-German war. Speaking on tho occasion when ho was giving away some prizes to tho members of the Ham and Petersham Miniature Rifle Club, who had won them, Lord Bercsford seized the opportunity of speaking from tho naval point of view. To bo brief, he stated that training was absolutely essential, a Navy loan necessary, our naval supremacy was challenged, the Declaration of London a rotten declaration, our trade, routes unguarded, and finally "if we lost the supremacy of the sea it.would be absolutely tho end of the British Empire." Further ho did not want to say 'anything arrogant or "irritating to other nations, but ho did want to seo his countrymen backing him up in saying what we had we would hold, especially our supremacy at sea, because on that ciopondsd our lives and existence. A Suicidal Struggle. Imagine a European war then, with tho Teuton, Latin, and Slav races on the ono side, and the Anglo-Saxon and Mohammedan races on tho other. It would bo an exhausting, weakening, suicidal war to those whoso mutual slaughter would have destroyed ono another. It is then that the yellow races would assert themselves. All tho invasions of Europe by Huns, Goths, and Vandals have been from the East. "Tho Peril to Europe and tho World" is tho heading of an article contributed by Sir Robert Hart to the "Fortnightly Review" in IDOO, in which ho gives his reasons for foreseeing in China a danger which will imperil the world's future. The German Emperor drew up a scheme for an allegorical picture, in which an angel with a flaming sword is showing the nations ,of Europe a vision of a Chinese god advancing from the distance, with burning cities in its wake. The Cross is seen above, tho nations of tho West (vide, "Sphere," November 10, 1900). Since then a new Power has stepped into the arena. In the "Shin-koroii," a-Tokio monthly, Count Okuma, speaking of the population of Japan, says: "During tho past half-century our population has increased by 20,000,000. As our population is at present estimated at 60,000,000, it. will ; should tho rate of increase become as high as ISO ner 1000 per annum, reach the mark of 130,000,000 by 1960. In other words, our population will in li) 0 years from now become as large as the present population of China." The paper frmm which tho above extract is taken says: "Where shall they go? America will not have them, Korea will soon be filled up, they do not care to emigrate to Africa—iii short, whero they would go they cannot, and whore they can go thev will hot." Japan, then, is like a full hive which must swarm off. Where can r.ho go? Let us consider first if the Commonwealth of Australia and New Zealand will be affected, and, -secondly, the menace to our km across the sen. in America. The island Continent, of Australia, with a population under five millions, lies almost empty. Facing her on tho north lie China. .Tanan. India, and Java. Ihe most denselv populated narts of the world. The Japs. are. a brainv.people, they have already established an outpost in New Caledonia, where there are some 2000. and more coming. It is an island worth having, and would make a strong stiategie.il base. It produces magnificent coal and is ono of the two places in the world where nickel, so necessary for .hardening sfrol. is produced in any nnanfity. New Caledonia is but some ODD milr-s distant, from Australia. They have n]. ready been surveying the Barrier Reef; there are now about- GOOO Jans, in Australia, mostly in the southern parts thereof. Wo are 1200 miles from Australia. Tho Valour of Ignorance. Lot us now consider the menace to our own kin across the sea. There, arc over 60.000 Japs in Honolulu, nearly 30,000 in the Western States of the United Stales; they hav« their feelers in British Columbia, and Mexico, and are to be found in iucieasiug numbers

on tho western shores of South America. Sir Frederick Yillicrs, tho famous war correspondent, interviewed at Vancouver, on tho presences of Japs in the Pacific Coast of the, United Slates, said "that unless tlio United Stales recognises Hint she is a nation of imperfections, having for her defences a navy and an army wholly unlit for the strain of a serious war, an exchequer incapable of standing any drain, and a misguided people who understand that the aim nf tho Republic is money-making, flip is on the ovo of a terrible awakening." Ho adds: "]f Japan attacks her southern neighbour, the. Philippines, I fancy the outcome, will bo the certain quick and absolute defeat of the United States." Writing on this subject, General Herbert Lea, tho author of "The Valour of Ignorance," says: "That tho future of Japan depends basically upon the possession nf a sufficient number of positions sn distributed in tho Pacific that, they command all trade routes to and from' the East and West." Failure to secure those, lie says, will in time relegate, her to the environs of her rocky islands, and, "like Egypt, though twenty-nine dim centur-, ics shall pass, she shall rise, up not again forever." General Lea also points out that while America relies on her militin, Japan has trained soldiers. Japan has over a million men in tho regular army;. tho United States less than GO.OOO. Of tho population of the United, States, 30,000,000 arc of foreign parentage. Fourteen Japanese battleships, carrying 132 heavy guns, against 104 heavy guns in twenty-four American battleships. The latest, information that wo Invo is that the. Jananeso are endeavouring to peacefully occupy another outnost on an island facing the Panama Canal. It is the opinion of many observers that tlicre will be war between the United States and Japan b?foro th; canal is opened. The Invasion from the East. Speaking on a paper read by Mr. Archibald R. Colquhoim on "Sea Power in tho Pacific," General Sir Edward Chapman. Admiral Charles Bercsford, and Admiral Fremantlo advocated a suitable defence scheme in the Indian Ocean and tho Pacific, the immediate reinforcement of the Paiifie station, and that it was a fatal policy to withdraw British ships from distant stations. The peril then is near, and drawing nearer, and as we in the seas mentioned, with our kin across the sea, will be the. most affected, it behoves us to take time by the forelock—forewarned is forearmed—and t nite for our common protection. How this may be done. will be shown later on in this, communication. Meantime look at this picture: "Yellow and white races in death grapple for the mastery of the world: the Powers of Europe, with all 'their black and brown allies forced together by common peril, massing from tho Caspian Sea to the Persian Gulf; from the Caspian Sea north to the Arctic Circle, to hold the mountain passes against the on-sweeping advance of yellow men. A brief struggle, then perhaps a tidal wave of yellow humanity sweeping over Europe to tho sea." This is a picture that French army officers, men high in tho War Department and m tho secret service, have held up to the horrified gaze of Europe. Franco sets the date for tho beginning of the struggle for mastery of tho world at 1920. when army officers say China and Japan, with 120,000,000 men of arms, will assume the aggressive. The first move- of the world war. according to the French, will be the united action of Japan and China in seizing every port from IndoChina to the Arctic Circle, and ousting the warships of the Powers from all harbours. Then the united navies of tho yellow races will stand on the defensive." Lord Wolsplcy says: "China possesses every requisite for over-running the world. They are absolutely fearless of death. Begin with a foundation of millions upon millions of such soldiers as these men are capable of being made, and tell me if you can whero tho end will be. The Fats of Europe, Dr. Danekamp, who represented the Dutch Associated Press in tho FatEast, for five years, speaking at Brisbane, said from his observation he was convinced that within the next twenty-five years tho cry of "Asia for Asiatics" will be raised, and Chinese, and Japanese armies and fleets will bo fused into one. The Japanese would continue their present alliance with England as long as China was weak, but once China became strong, England would bo dropped, and, so far as Asia was concerned, European nations would have to take a back seat... Dr. Morrison, tho "Times" correspondent at Peking, speaking at the "Authors' Club" in London, said tho people of England spoke of the "yellow peril," forgetting that Ihero was _ in China an ever-present and mqro vivid menace than the European peril. "We constantly refer to the awakening of other countries," said Dr. Morrison, "but was not England, with her unwillingness to train her sons to defend themselves, slumbering and snoring, while preparations to give us our lesson were proceeding with terrible rapidity almost at our doors." The following extract from a paper the namo of which I regret I cannot give,, and hero acknowledge, has so important a bearing on this subject that i feel compelled to quote, liberally therefrom. It is headed "Tho Yellow Peril":—"The late Oscar tho II of Sweden was a man of great diplomacy and far-seeing political sagacity. Principally for this reason ho was the chosen head of most of the international Arbitration Councils which took place in Europe during the latter decade or two of his reign, and the diplomatic world of Europe was always eager for his opinion. Part of a letter written by King Oscar to Prince Adam Wizniowski, dated March' 22, 1896, long'before the Russo-Japanese war took place, was lately published in a number of "La Rovuo Diplomatique," in which tho King expressed himself thus: "I hope to die in peace. My military and warlike inclinations, which we're rather strong in my younger years, have gradually died down, and have- now all but disappeared. But I believe that in the blo.ody conflict sure to take place some, time, and on the outcome of which the fate of Europe will probably depend, the Occident will be conquered by the Orient, whero already each day sees tho organisation of tho strong face of the future and tho preparation for tho great battle. Japan's power of expansion, the energy of her patriotic people, tho efficiency of her Government the brilliant organisation of her military forces by land and sea, the valour and admirable patriotism of her soldiers, the capability and decision of her officers— all this has impressed mo tremendously. These Asiatic nations who have hitherto been the butt of our contempt must bo counted with, and I must confess to a iecling of worry and fear when I contemplate tho dangers to tho Western European civilisation sure to loom up from y>c coasts of the Pacific. It is to be hoped that 1 see things in a far too dismal light, and that the' reality of tho future will prove to be a brighter one. Hut at my age ono has lost so many illusions." A European Alliance. Oscar II saw tho necessity of an alliance nf tho European States, and ho held Emperor William II to bo the man suited for tho execution of this plan. In a letter to Princo Wizniewski, ho wrote:—"ln a few days I am going to Christiana, the'ro to receive. Germany's young Emperor, who will mark his placo in history as a luminous star shows its brilliancy in tho heavens." Prince Wizniowski adds that the Emperor William has expressed himself in favour of the formation of a European alliance. These are very pathetic words, full of deep truths. It is right, then, to heed this communication as "a plea

for tho abandonment by Germany of her present aims and ambitions. Is Oscar's estimate of .tho character of tho Gorman Emperor to be fulfilled. When Edward the Peacemaker died there was probably no more sincere mourner than liis German nephew. Ho preached PEACE. AYill he act up to it now, antl ho the man to execute an alliance of the European States, and bo a third with England and America to show a bold front to a common' foe. Tho outcome of tuch an alliance would be, that instead of concentrating tlieir battleships in European waters and on tlm Atlantic seaboard, they could be statirjjied in the China, Indian, and Pacific. Sons. America could move lier ships to her Pacific- seaboard, where they would be available to act in conjunction with the fleets of other nations as occasion might require. A stream of emigration of European people could bo diverted for tho filling up of empty Australia. The Germans make admirable settlers when sandwiched with tho English. There arc large areas of unoccupied country in Brazil, where Germany is already largely represented, and many other waste places of the earth awaiting colonisation. This filling up of places v.itli our own peoples •cMild moan the keeping of others out. German colonists in Australia, and tho presence of German battleships in the seas adjacent thereto might he accepted as a proof of their "bona fiides" in the. matter. "To mark his place in history," as King Oscar said of him, if the German Emperor were to act as forecasted in tho forming of a European alliance, he would earn the abiding gratitude of his fellow-men, and his name bo handed clown to future generations as William the Deliverer. —I am, etc., GEORGE HENRY DAVIES. "Mamari," Karori. "Wellington, April 22, 1911.