THE NEW ELECTORATES.

Dominion, Volume 4, Issue 1045, 7 February 1911, Page 4

THE NEW ELECTORATES.

A good deal of speculation has taken place as to the probable effects of the census results on the representation of the country in the next Parliament. Doubts have been expressed as to whether tho census figures, so far as they relate to population, will be available to enable the liepresen tafcion Commissioners to carry out the work of rearranging the electorates in time for tho general election this year. It would seem, however, that there is little ground for fear on that point. Special attention will be given by tho Census Department to the preparation of the population returns, which will be pushed through with all speed, and should be available long before Parliament rises. For a great many years past the trend of population has been to tho North Island, and there is no reason to doubt that the census returns this year will show that this movement has been maintained during the past five years. A very good idea of the change that has taken place in the relative positions of tho North and South Islands in the matter of population during the past 20 years may lie gained from the representation figures at the various censuses sincc 1891. They are as follow:— North. South. Island. Island. Census Year. Members members. 1891 30 40 1806 31 3!) 1901 31 36 1906 3S 38 1911 41 35 In a House of 70 European members, tho South Island in 1891 sent 40 representatives to Parliament, as against 110 from the North. In a Ilouse of 76 European members, the North Island to-day sends 41 members, as against 35 sent by the South. It has to bo borne in mind, of course, that in computing tho population for electoral purposes an addition of 28 per cent, is made to the country population: that is all persons living outside towns of 2000 inhabitants and over; but this applies equally to both 1 the North and the South Islands, and probably does not affect the position at all so far. as tho representation of each is concerned. It will be noted from the figures quoted above that tho; North Island gained three members as the result of the 1906 census, and it is generally anticipated that a similar gain will bo the outcome of tho ccnsus of 1911. The effect of this'on political parties may possibly be estimated to some extent by the present strength of parties in tho. two islands. The Opposition, for instance, is 'much stronger in tho North Island, judged by tho number of its members returned by North Island electorates, than it is in the South. The Government, on tho other hand, holds a greater proportion of South Island than North Island scats. . The actual figures are: North' South. Island. Island. Government ' 21 25 Opposition 17 10 41 35 Should the South Island lose three seats it will certainly embarrass the Government a groat deal more than it will upset the Opposition. As a matter of fact, it is generally thought that the seats most likely to be lost to tho South Island arc thoEO in possession of Government members. The Minister for Agriculture, the Hon. T. Mackenzie, for instance, is reported to have been looking round for some time past for a comfortable scat in the North Island, in anticipation of his present electorate, Taieri, being wiped away. The portions of the North -Island which arc thought likely to gain the seats expected to bo. lost, to the South arc one near Auckland, one. in the Hawkc's Bay district, and one along the Main Trunk line: On'the .whole,, therefore, the readjustment should, if anything, be in favour of the Opposition. Until the exact boundaries are ' determined, however, members and nrospective candidates gcn?rally will have a somewhat anxious time.