WHAT CHANCE FOR CHEESE?

Dominion, Volume 4, Issue 1040, 1 February 1911, Page 8

WHAT CHANCE FOR CHEESE?

, . THE CHANGES OVERSEA. The reciprocity'agreement between Canada and tho. United States is likely to bo wido enough in its iniluenco to alfcct .New Zealand. Tho cabled items, however, have not been of''much heip m lorming ■" a clear opinion on the matter. Jlow far .will it .affect us? AVell, frankly, wo can:ao't.yet tell. - i ..'•. The "Spectator" remarks that tho agreement "ajnounts ta , Free-trade 'in i'arni 1 products." It is this "IW-trado" which concerns Now Zealand," and it is our dairying' industry which is chiefly afvected. i'or some years Canada has been Britain's source of cheese supply, .while New • : Zealand has also been making and , exporting cheeso to Britain in quantities . adjusted'according to the estimated cou- '. dition of the cheeso market. Jlany of : our big! dairy "factories'hare been litted with, dual'pmnts. in order:.that either butter or cheese can be made, according to, tho requirements of the British market. In; deciding the course to take. >in : any season's manufacture, one of the mast important things taken into consideration has been.the probable output of Canada: In some years it has been tho chief: basis on which we have worked.

So the importance of the fact that anotherdairy produce outlet has been made ■available to Canada is. obvious.' Hut to ■what extent this country will benefit is not so clear,. and, indeed, 'only a few years' experience could make it so. A few seasons of. -wild prosperity caused by a'boom - in its cheese industry is, .of course , , improbable. Our exports of cheeso. for the 19U9-10 season amounted to K>,"867 tons, valued.at ,£1,000,00!). It is difficult '.' to ascertain yet what Canada exported .'during-.her.-last. season, but about 60,000 tons had been made up to October 1. Bβ--tween then and December there would bo additions to the total,, and. a careful, scrutiny 'of newspapers from', abroadleads; ■ to] an estimate oi' 70,000 tons as Canada's output. . That, is more . than four times' jas much cheese as New Zealand exports. '■ '■ ■ . . •' '' .•' How much of Canada's spare 70,000 will the -United' States take? It can be .reasonably; reckoned that America will demand a. good' ' deal- of 'it. . But, again, we cannot toll' how much, 'i'he peopleof the United State's would iave been good . customers long, ago had the high tariff not been'in existence. Ataericans will probably be prepared to pa'?., this same price, or thereabouts, for Canadian cheese, as British consumers have been paying, and an" inevitable result is plain enough—portion of what is going to Britain will go to the-States. There will then bo'-'a-shortage of.-cheese on. the London and other Home markets -70. temporary shortage, to be by and.by adjusted by the inexorable operation at' the law. of supply and demand. But-that' eperation; would 'be slow, and, meanwhile, tie Dominion would have its chance.

.'■An effect of a shortage would be to increase Canada's cheess make, and Canada is a country.so. vast that the room for ; expansion is enormous. > Then . there is Australia to . bo', reckoned'with. If a shortage'of cheese'sent up the price of tho commodity in Britain, some of Australia's many million acres of semi-developed land would be brought into line, and by such m'?ans the deficiency -will be brought about. New.Zealand, however, could very quickly .make a large increase in. her, cheese output, by many of the r concerns. •w.hich now manufacture butter : turning" •over to cheese. . That, by the way, might ■assist in maintaining the price of butter. .Dairy factory directors and others who .contemplate '.any readjustment of their :'businesses in consequence of the agreement between the two countries ought to ■bear this in mind; it is a most unlikely thing that.cheese .will reach an abnormal price on the British market. Tho reason is.- that when the retail price gets much .above what"' the .customers are iii tho habit of paying, or when. it rises over .what they can afford, they -will leave it lalone. It is. one; of • those things that >can be done , without great hardship A very de.ar indication that the people ■or the United States want Canada's dairy iprodiiee was given 'some timo back, when •the tariff ivas revised. The revised tariff had an effect, as applied to butter and cream, which was not intended by tho legislators who framed it. The tariff on putter had. been prohibitive, but the rinsed tariff: admitted cream at a rate which'was. not.prohibitive: The openiii" was soon discovered, and Canadian fac°toi'ies withm- a reasonable distance of the border sent their cream into the States and on- the American side of'the line the-cream was manufactured into butter _A point which does not much concern ??V Zealand, bu . t which ■is interesting, is. that :the . admission to America bf Canada s cheese .would ".to sure to- have a-damaging effect'on''the lines which f a ,X? U P', to ,™e present time bsen substi-' tuting it.