PROPHECY OR GUESSWORK?

Dominion, Volume 2, Issue 537, 18 June 1909, Page 10

PROPHECY OR GUESSWORK?

A 'WHEAT QUESTION. Can some North .Island farmer of experience, or city merchant, divine whether tho following was genuine, knowledgeable prophecy orjusfc vague guessing?, bir William Crookcs in 181)8 predicted that y the year 1911 there would bo a serious shortage in the world's production of wlicl.t, and that -by 1931 tho consumption of that gram would have to-be seriously diminished. It was unwise to indulge in any such forecast,, with 60 much virgin land , still at command in tho world. What has checked tho growth' of wheat has been the price, and if only present quotations- for the gram could last, wo should soon have the output in Australasia doubled, and the same would occur in Canada and Argentina. But it is. only natural just now, wlieii wheat is attracting,attention, that the abo.vo prediction should be unearthed. The trouble..about wheat, however, is tho fact that. it is 'almost impossible to stimulate consumption, when there is a good crop, or to restrict consumption when there is a bad one. Very'often a 5 per cent, difference in the yield will make a 50 per cent, difference in the price and happily _ it- is very seldom that the fluctuations in the world's yield exceod 5 per cent. ; ,