THE FARM INDUSTRY

Dominion, Volume 2, Issue 505, 12 May 1909, Page 10

THE FARM INDUSTRY

*. BUTTER SUPPLIES. THE WINTER OUTLOOK. PRICES HARDENING. > Gradually the task of determining whether there will bo much or littlo butter avaiiablo in New Zealand for the needs of the coming winter is becoming easier, and tho veTdict is leaning more and more- in favour of a somewhat narrow supply. Tho chief grounds for this belief aro that tho cnd-of-April supplies in cold storage were about 28,500 boxes less than the quantity in storo at tho corresponding date of last year, and that although about 20,000 boxes of last year's stored butter wore exported, the quantity retained was still 8500 boxes more than is now available. Even then tho narrowness of the margin finally caused great anxiety to thoso responsible for the local trade. It is recognised that tho current output of butter at tho factories is greater than it was at this time last year. In fact; thoso factories which usually closo to half-time at tho end of April aro keeping open full-time till the end of May. It would appear probable that the extra output of this month would make up the deficient 8500 boxes. But, some operators express doubt on tho point, and believe that a. deficiency will be still shown (after deducting tho 20,000 boxes exported last year) when the end of May comes. Although tho May output of this season may bo equivalent to an. April output of an ordinary season, yet the advantage cannot be expected to continue right through the winter. As ono agent said, "you cannot alter Nature," and the cows are_ bound to go dry very soon. The June output per factory is not expected to be any greater than the output of an ordinary June, and there are further factors that go to support the expectation of at least only a barely-sufficient winter supply. One of these is that'several large factories which made butter last season are now making cheese. Some of these with dual plants may perhaps make butter instead when the winter pmch comes, but even they will not be induced to come to tho rescue till prices. aro already up high. Some of theso factories who made . butter last year and cheese now, with an estimate of what their output in boxes would have been, are-tho following:—.. • v ■ ■'

May. June. July. Aug. Joll ."..:. ... 2200 550 275 550 Kaponga ... 400 100 50 100 Riverdale ... 2000 500' 250 500 Awatuna ... 400 100 50 100 Kaupokonui. ... 2000 '500 250-500 Total ...' . 7000 1750 . 875, 1750 ' In the secession of these five factories alone 11,375 boxes of butter are lost to the winter supplies, and this will not be balanced'by the output , of .butter factories newly opened this season. . .' •..'■;• A further matter ,of even more interest is tho probable extent of tho South African demand. A. large- part of- South , Africa's' supplies is drawn from Sydney, but the f.o.b. price in Sydney has increased in; the last fortnight till it is now Is. per lb. If' Sydney prices increase further, tho South African demand will swing over to New Zealand, and New Zealand-butter will either have to go to Africa or. have its price locally, raised in sympathy with African offers. At the present moment.some holders consider tho value of New ; Zealand, butter for the'.South. African demand is Is. or Is. Jd. f.o.b. This is afleast.a penny above- present ruling' rates. Factory directors aro beginning' to enlarge their ideas of values, and while some are .selling May-make and stored butter at lid., one factory at least has refused lid. and asked ll}d. ' .;.:■.'■';- •.■■'.••.."■' Very much will depend henceforward on the Australian supplies, and particularly on those of New South "Wales.''. It was ;tne sud- , . don Australian demand at big prices that finally upset .'the |New Zealand.balance last.winter, and the disturbance from tho same quartor this season, ia , 'beginning earlier.-. Tho Sydney market is always'looked upon as a very' fickle' one, however, and/, whilo it appoars at present to be likely to increase Now .Zealand yalues,,"it niay'-in,the end. have an entirely opposite effect..'. '. . •'-.. <\" On the whole, however, factory directors may rest assured .that. butter is -just now a very .saleable commodity. •, .'•' -f '■•,■'. -.■/ ■■';'; ■