BUTTER BARGAINS.

Dominion, Volume 2, Issue 493, 28 April 1909, Page 10

BUTTER BARGAINS.

THE CORNER RUMOUR. ' A SHIFTING OUTLOOK. Both in Dunedin and in Auckland • state- ■ mcnts luvo lately been made that somebody is trying to corner the winter butter supplies , of Now Zoaland. It is not very likely that tho factories would sell forward readily.in a time of uncertainty, and the rumour is more' probably , founded on a strong belief in tho uesiro of operators to buy cheaply and sell dearly in order to recover lost profits' of tho season now closing. Such a desiro very naturally does oxist every year, but tho task of getting control of enough of New Zealand's winter butter to dictate prices is—in proportion to tho powers of anybody likely to attempt it—a very great one. The corner rumour seems.to spring up.every.year. It is probably founded on 'nothing .m'oro than tho natural efforts which operators make at this' time of- year to securo supplies , for their , winter needs. . Sorao of thoso operators, it I is truo, aro believed to bo. imbued with . specu-lative-propcosities; but the great rivalry -Jliat is known to oxist between some or the merchants and agents who require portions of the supplies forms a strong barrier against a successful corner. Thero aro'about livo months to be catered for with tho winter supply—that is till Septomber next—and the factory butter consumed locally in that period would amount "to about 100,000 boxes, or 50,000 hundredweight. To purchase or contract for even half that supply at, say Is. per' pound, to effect a corner, would involve a capital of-.; £140,000. _ It may, however, ■be fairly assumed that, after the period of bartering with tho factory directors lias. passed, every interest of tho operators'will dictate "an increase in the New Zoaland prices above . those now,-.ruling. Opinions diSer as to tho possibility of accomplishing this. In Dunedin it is believed that winter-retail prices may just possibly be oven jlower than the present rates., With tho_ unusual events of last winter fresh in' their minds, however, it would seem unlikely' that factory clirectors_ will effect contracts on a,ny belief of that kind. It remains to bo seen how the .factories will. take- the■ advico of . the recent Stratford meeting, convened'by tho National Dairy Association, which counselled 'them to export tho bulk of their April outputs and not to sell for local cold storage. A similar meeting of factory representatives, last year, convened by the. same association,' factories to export a stated- proporr tion of their outputs. Some holders ■ took : that advice, and it is to the exporting which followed that tho subsequent 1 panic as to a winter butter famine was attributed. Tho unexpected Australian shortage—brief, but acute—further reduced our stocks; and those who a few weeks ago had lightheartedly exported •wished that they: had .their consignments back again. Prices soared up magnificently. - Several consignments' to Britain were. recalled, and ( . nlthough they arrived back when tho high prices were over, t-hey. served ' tho purpose of enabling their owners'to sell such supplies as they happened to havo on hand. The fact is-that the task of - gauging the futuro of the New Zealand winter market is. a very difficult one, and the Stratford roeetingi'. make a courageous attempt to copo with 1 it. It is reasonable, however, to suppose, that winter priceis are moro likely to bo high than low. Whatever effect-t-ho Stratford resolution may have/it ;is not likely that'the. exportation from row onwards will be extensive.-/.Prices in Britain are now so low that factories' stand to gaiii rather than to lose by deferring their irig till later,. when tho local outlook may bo : clearer. . ' , , ' -./ ■'.

■ The prospects of big winter supplies are becoming less cheerful with every ■ night of frost,; The'soil is also-yery: wet, and dairy' cows may. curtail their , ' "milk yields. : Tho quantity ' of' bnttor in store at the end of March ,w-a5:,:0n1y.;32,357. boxes,. : as 'against 42,711 boxes on the same date of 'last year. This, however, is' not^"indicative-, of decreased supplies,,hut is, rather a consequence of/tbe sensa'of security which the uicroasedsuppliee havo created; With a possible early diminution ,of th.e-.'supplies,. of. which dairy factory directors will .quickly .become., cognisant, inoreasod attention to'storage: may. be expected. In view J3{; all the circumstanceaivvery little exporting swould seem':to be advisable.