THE NAVY ESTIMATES.

Dominion, Volume 2, Issue 457, 16 March 1909, Page 4

THE NAVY ESTIMATES.

Tee British navy estimates, the chiei details of which were published yesterday, are the largest for five years, and they should satisfy the public that the Government is carrying out its policy, stated iii October last by the First Lord of the Admiralty, of "making sure that our Navy is strong enough to meet successfully any foe, or reasonably probable combination of foes." The total voto ■ asked for is greater by £2,823,200 than that of last year. But the real extent of the advance in naval expenditure is very much greater than that. Of the last vote for "new construction," amounting to £7,545,202, the sum of £6,795,202 was spent on construction sanctioned the year before, and of the new vote under the same head, £8,885,194,' only £2,285,770 will be available fo'r beginning the new ships proposed. Sincc battleships tako two years to build, the appropriation in the second year is always greater than in tho first year. On this occasion the new programme is a large one—including four Dreadnoughts, six protected cruisers and twenty destroyers, as against one Dreadnought, one armoured and six protected cruisers and sixteen "destroyers last year —and the vote next year may therefore be expected to be several millions more than the vote now proposed. Even without the four more large armoured ships which the Government is ready to construct if necessary, in addition to the settled programme, the estimates for next year cannot fall short of £40,000,000, a sum exactly twice as large as the last German estimates. The Daily News is, therefore, not incorrect in calling the programme "colossal." The advocates of the Two-Power standard, which has been accepted by the Government, base their calculations on Dreadnoughts, and in most of their pleas for increased naval expenditure every other kind of ship is left out of account. Of course, Britain does not possess as many Dreadnoughts and Invincibles as any other two Powers. On paper, taking the new programme into account, Britain will only possess, in 1911, three Dreadnoughts more than Germany, assuming that tho Germans can adhere to their programme and maintain their rate of construction. But there is some reason to believe that tho true comparison of strengths should not be a comparison of Dreadnoughts only, and that in making its naval policy a Dreadnought race the Admiralty is not taking a sound line. Lord Brass'ey, in the Naval Annual for 1908, expresses a preference for the type, preceding the Dreadnought, and advises more Lord Nelsons. Sir AVilliam White, who is probably the first authority on the subject, made a notable assault, in the Nineteenth Century for June last, on

what he called "the cult of the monster ■warship." "Not a few high authorities," he said, "are of opinion that some vessels of preceding types are individually superior in fighting efficiency to the Dreadnought type, and for a given expenditure a larger number of such vessels can be produced. Blind persistence in our recent policy, without further comparison of types, is therefore undesirable- It would bs foolish to plunge into a costly competition with the German programme and to construct large numbers of improved Dreadnoughts without further in quiry." A similar view is held by other weighty authorities. If, for this reason, reference is had to battleships and armoured cruisers of less than twenty years old, Great Britain has still a maritime strength greater than that of any two foreign Powers. The new estimates will set most people thinking upon the prospects of the maintenance of the Two-Power policy. Nobody, it may safely be supposed, would dream of saying that Great Britain can always maintain the Two-Power standard. In the February number of the CovlcmpovciTy Review, Professor Jevons discussed the outlook in this connection very convincingly. He quotes tho facts of history to show that Great Britain, in point of national and industrial development, has had a long start of tho Continental nations, which are now, however, making tremendously rapid progress. Half a century hence, he predicts, all the foreign nations will have gone ahead onorniously; Germany will be the equal of Great Britain in national power, and the United States will bo "tho most important nation in the world": "Ihcre can be little doubt that by that time Germany will be as well able to maintain a large navy as we, whilst the United States will be much better able to afford lit." L£ Britain attempted to m'aiutaiu

the Two-Power standard, what would lie. fclio result? PIIOFESSOK Juvons says, in effect, "national ruin." The needs of the Navy would require a stinting of the Government's eivil activities in every direction, with a resultant dccay of the nation. No doubt this is all quite true, but it is quite true also that the lwo> Power standard cannot he cast aside yet. Even if it cannot ho maintained permanently, it should at any rate sccure, what not even the Daily News would objcct to, the maritime supremacy of Great Britain for many years to come. What lies beyond is outside the scope of conjecture.