The Dominion THURSDAY, OCTOBER 15, 1908. THE BALKAN COMPLICATIONS.

Dominion, Volume 2, Issue 328, 15 October 1908, Page 6

The Dominion THURSDAY, OCTOBER 15, 1908. THE BALKAN COMPLICATIONS.

The devious ways of the diplomatists in the chancelleries of Europe as evinced in recent cables make any forecast of the course of events in the Balkans extremely difficult. It is now evident, however, that Russia, Germany, and Austria have been playing a double game ever since the signing'of the Treaty of Berlin. The dishonesty of these three signatory Powers is now patent enough. Austria enters into a secret arrangement with Turkey not to permanently occupy the provinces of Herzegovina and Bosnia, which she has now formally annexed. Next she forms a secret agreement with Russia and Germany in 1881 whereby she is to be allowed to seize the two provinces at the psychological moment best approved by herself. Needless to say, the other two Powers would demand a quid pro quo, for it is tho habit neither of the Slav nor of the Teuton.to give away anything for nothing. This act of largesse to Austria of another nation's property was apparently to bo the first move in the direction of a general partition of the various Slav States, after tho manner of Poland, and a brief examination of the trend of Slavonic aspirations in the Near East will confirm this view. In the first place, it must bo remembered that between Germans and Slavs there exists an innate, instinctive, and apparently inextinguishable antagonism. In temperament they arc 'utterly alien: they offend and repel each other at every turn. Tho Poles, Czechs, and Russians arc slowly drawing together, and Rumanians, Servians, Bulgarians,' Magyars, Ruthenians, and tho various other elements which comprise

the polyglot Slav nationalities of the Balkans have slowly but surely during the last quarter of a century been striving after tlic ideal of a series of Slavonic States independent of tho Gorman yoku on tha one hand, and of the Turk on tho

other, and linked together by a common hatred of each. There is, of course, the crying case of Macedonia, where Bulgar and Serb, having already fought ono fratricidal war, tear each other in an internecine guerrilla warfare, and inflict worse barbarities than tho Turk wreaks on either of them. This antagonism is due partly to ambitions . for religious predominance, but still more to fomentations by interested parties whoso metier is to check the process of Slavonic cementation.

The real, in spite of all, is moving to--1 wards the ideal. The divisions among tho Slav races now are not worse than were the former antagonisms between Prussians, Saxons, and Bavarians. Just as tho Teutonic stocks were welded together by common antagonism to the French, so Slav solidarity is being created by Austro-German pressure, and will some day be a tremendous fact, being hastened to its consummation by tho ever-growing advance of Teutonic power towards tho Adriatic and down the Danube. In fact, German aggressiveness tends to crcato Slav solidarity. In the light of these considerations recent developments in t!ie Balkans become intelligible, as also the machinations of the three Great Powers chiefly interested. Regarding the debacle of the Turk in Europe as a foregone conclusion, the three Powers flocked in anticipation to prey upon the carcass even before life should be extinct. Germany was to act her traditional part of "the honest broker," leaving Austria to pick the chestnuts out of the fire for her, and to make her own terms with her neighbours later on. Russia was to be given every facility to acquire a port in the Mediterranean, and, in fact, Slavonia, as an entity, was to suffer the fate of Poland and to be politically extinguished after subjection to a tripartite division. It has, consequently, been to the actual advantage of Austria and Germany to thwart any settlement of affairs in Macedonia. At all costs must Slavonic prejudices be encouraged and animosities fomented, until such time as tho interested Powers felt it safe to step in in tho interests of "Humanity" and—divide. Unfortunately for those plans tho resuscitation of Turkey and the permeation of democratic ideas into that presumed moribund Empire caused a tremendous flutter in tho Austro-German dovecotes—or, shall we say, hawkeries. Austria, taking advantage of the situation, has seized Bosnia and Herzegovina, opining that Turkey, in the throes of reconstruction, would be powerless to thwart her. Hence also the action of Bulgaria in declaring her independence of Turkish rule. Servia, while cherishing tho idea of a Pan-Slav-ism which will confirm her in her independence, is antagonistic to Bulgaria mainly for reasons mentioned above. Tho inspired articles in tho German press chiding Austria for her precipitancy may bo taken moro or less as an exhibition of spleen over diplomatic machinations which have sadly miscarried. Russia, on tho other hand, has waited long, and can now afford to await the consummation of Slavonic hopes, knowing well that in the event of a great Pan-Slav hegemony sho would be able to realise her ambitions in the Mediterranean. Britain, naturally, desires to keep both Russia and Germany from securing the desired means of access to the Mediterranean, and her way to this end is to preserve the Turkish Empire, which can' best be done by strengthening the position of the Young Turkish party. This view appears to be held also by France. It is rash to speculate wliero the actions of the Powers are so shrouded in secrecy, but despite tho many conflicting interests involved, the 'way seems to be clearing for a peaceable, if not wholly satisfactory, settlement for the time' being what is undoubtedly a grave situation threatening the peace of practically the whole of the nations of Europe.