THE ELECTIONS.

Dominion, Volume 2, Issue 325, 12 October 1908, Page 6

THE ELECTIONS.

The coming General Elections will be of greater interest to tho country than has been tho caso for many years past, owing to the absence of tho dominating influence of tho late Mr. Seddon. Tho Ward Ministry has carried on the government of the country by virtue of the huge majority secured by the late Premier at the elections of 1905, and Sir Joseph Ward has yet to prove his skill as the organiser of a general plan of campaign, and his power as an "influence" jn those electorates which have not shown a satisfactory response to the claims of tho Government candidates. There ( can be no doubt that the present Prime Minister cannot hopo to exercise the personal sway so effectively exerted, where occasion required, by his predecessor. Sir Joseph Ward probably realises that he does not possess the driving powers associated with the domineering personality of his late leader; nor has he behind him to lend weight to his desires the same powerful political organisation which Mn. Seddon developed through the medium of tho Liberal and Labour Federation. It is a sore point with some of trio party that this Federation has rather run to waste since Mr. Seddon's time. His successor has not shown that interest in its well-being necessary to maintain solidarity in its ranks and enthusiasm amongst its members. Moreover, the attitude of the Government towards Labour has quite alionntod the support of the remnants of the Labour following which still cling to the Federation. Here and there the Federation may form a rallying point for the party, but, generally speaking, it will play a much smallor part than usual in the election contest. The position of tho Government from tho jjoint of view of organisation, therefore,

appears to be much weaker than it has been on any occasion during the past twelve years. There aro two other factors which tho Government must view with concern. No one can doubt that Labour is strongly resentful of the treatment, it has re-' ceivcd at the hands of Ministers, Tho weakness displayed in enforcing tho Arbitration Act against strikers encouraged Labour to make demands which woro strongly resisted, and the Attorney-Gen-eral's speeches and actions in connection with the Conciliation and Arbitration Act Amendment Bill filled the cup of Labour to overflowing. The candidates nominated by Labour for tho forthcoming elections have little hopo of success, but at tho ballot-box in November, next tho trade unions may, nevertheless, show their strong resentment of the treatment meted out to them by tho Government. The second factor which must cause Ministers some perturbation is the recognition by the farming community that the' Government is indifferent to, or at least ignorant of, the needs of the country settler. Certainly it has in election year provided a special vote for roads and bridges, but as against this wo have that utterly absurd measure, the Shearers' Accommodation Bill, with its ludicrous provision of luxuries which no shearer ever dreamed of asking for; the new dairying regulations which carried consternation throughout the ranks of the small farmers of tho country; and other evidences of ignorance or hostility to the farming interest. The Government will have to answer for theso things at the coming polls, and what possibles answer can Ministers give?

For tho reasons given above, it will be seen that Snt Joseph Ward will go to the country suffering under certain ' disadvantages which Mr. Seddon did not havo to contend against, To counterbalance these disadvantages, the Government have one new factor which apparently they imagine will be in their favour —tho Second Ballot Act. This Act, which : was not submitted to the country before its passage into law during the last session of a dying Parliament, is designed to remove the difficnlty which Mr. Seddon experienced in preventing a plethora of Government candidates contesting seats. Being conscious of his inability to ! carry through Mr. Seddon's methods of weeding out would-be Government candidates, Sir Joseph Ward adopted this moro subtle idea of preventing the possibility of Opposition supporters winning seats owing to the .Government candidates' votes being divided. It is not necessary for tne purposes of this article to. touch upon tho merits of the Act—we aro merely concerned with its probable effects. The Prime Minister imagined that it would benefit Government nominees, the ground for this belief no doubt being that he assumed that the votes recorded for Government candidates who foil out of the contest at tho first ballot would be given to tho Government candidates remaining in at the second ballot. It is also, generally considered that it' was hoped by means of the Act to remove any chance of Labour nominees being successful. There is little room for doubt that the second, end wili bo achieved; but it is not by any means so certain that votes .will be transferred from one Government candidate to another to tho extent imagined. Already •wo have had evidence that there is likely to be more bitterness shown between rival Government candidates for a |seat than between such candidates and the Opposition representative; and this will - certainly play an important part in tho casting of votes at the second ballot. Tho most important effect of the Second Bal- | lot Act, however, probably will bo tho fact that it will return to Parliament a greater number'of Government supporters than ever before who have won their seats without the assistance of Ministers', and who therefore will bo more independent of Government influence than heretofore. There is now 1 no reason why a would-be candidate should stand down "for the good of the cause," and there will be a much greater number of men come forward to fight the contest on thcirmerits even against the Government nominee. The Prime Minister's Second Ballot Act may, therefore, fail to help him very much at the elections, and may prove a source of considerable embarrassment to him in the handling of his party, should he be again returned to power. It is early yet to attempt to estimate results, but a lively,' if brief, election campaign may be looked forward to.