The Dominion WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 7, 1908. THE EUROPEAN SITUATION

Dominion, Volume 2, Issue 321, 7 October 1908, Page 6

The Dominion WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 7, 1908. THE EUROPEAN SITUATION

Th£) European storm-cloud which has been hanging menacingly. 6vcr Morocco and threatening to embroil the Great Powers in an internecine strugglo has 'been suddenly transferred to the " Near East and appears to be on the point of bursting. The rise of the Slavonic national spirit, expressing itself in the declaration of Bulgaria of independence, coupled with the machinations of Germany and Austria—as represented by the latter s expressed determination tc. annex the occupied . provinces have cieatcd a situation w'hich frill call into requisition the Lest offices of international diplomacy if the European political magazine is riot to be exploded at once. The sudden violence of Bulgaria appears to be Germany's indirect reply to the Anglophile reform movement in Turkey, arid the substitution of Britain for Germafiy as the pbwerful friend of Constantinople. Germany lias predominating interests in Turkey—e.//., in the Bagdad railway; Austria aspires to bccftmc sole manager or the Sultan's domains in Macedonia. A more entangled political skein it would be hard to imagine; for, standing head arid' shoulders above the purely selfish motives of Aiistria and Germany, is tlie Slavonic movement, of which the Bulgarian seizure of the.. Oriental .liailwdy and her late frenzied reception of Pjuncb Ferdinand were a patent index enough, j Bulgaria has awakened to tlo fact that

* Austria is so heavily cncumbcred with Slav elements that she cannot without grave disadvantages annex any more; neither can she allow, other Slav States to assimilate the Macedonians, Serbs, and Bulgars. . The glimmerings of constitutionalism in Turkey, however, have tended, and, will increasingly tend, to depreciate the supremacy of Germany in Turkey, and that German influence in that country has suffered a severe setbaoi: is clear from the excellent impression created by King Edward's recent telegram of congratulation to the Sultan and the immense popularity of the British Ambassador at Constantinople. The Bulgarians have been sufficiently astute to gauge the situation to a nicety. They realise that with the decrease of German power ih Turkey, and the consequent weakening of Austrian influence in Macedonia .(for Austria, largely owing to the heterogeneous units wh'ich make -up her nationality, is dependent upon Germany), the hour for a bold bid for independence has arrived. seizure of the Oriental Railway, or, rather, that part of. it which passes through her territory, was evidently more th ? n , a IJ ' CI ' C try-on," to use a colloquialism, in view of her reciiht extensive army manoeuvres. The situation from her point of view is as follows:—She sees the wane of German power in Turkey owiH|; to the heo-constitutionalism of that country; she .realises that Austria, owing to national elements within herself sympathetic to Bulgai' aspirations, is practically impotent in the face of a rebuffed Germany; she knows that all but the Albahiaii population of Macedonia are anxious to become one with herself. - This concatenation of causes has produced the natural result—that Bulgaria is looking for complete independence from the Turk. If further endorsement of this view were rcquii'cdj it appeared in the cable message of Monday, reporting that Greeks and Turks were fraternising. Much as the Turks detest the Christian .religion, their liatred .scarcely approaches that of the Greek for the fiulgar. Though owning a common creed, Greeks and Bulgars acknowledge the sway of rival patriarchs, their mutual detestation is such that either would ally with the Mohammedan in order to crush the other, it is reported in an early message to-day that the arrangements for Austria's annexation of Bosnia and Herzegovina were carried out by Austria, Germany, Russia, arid Italy. France and Great Britain were stated to be left in ignorance of what was going on. This, Lowever, is corrected so far as Russia is concerned, in a later message. Russia's feettled line of policy, as far; baki' as the Berlin Treaty in 1878, has been against the annexation of Bosnia and Herzegovina by Austria, aiid Russian policy is ndt likely to have changed in that respect. Russia, indeed, will probably be foiiiid acting with Britain and France. It is against the interests of Great Britain that there should be any disturbance of European conditions, l and very much to Britain's advantage that the constitutional movement in Turkey should flourish. The sensational situation that has just arisen is therefore tho reverse of agreeable to British diplomacy. It is possible' that the Sultan ■ may seize upon the " Bulgarian menace " as an excuse for restoring the did condition of things. Whether Turkey will go to war with Bulgaria is uncertain, arid appears to depend-on the'support which the Porte can obtain from the Powers. In any event, the situation is fraiight with iriucb to the peace of Eui'ope.