OUR YORKSHIRE LETTER.

Dominion, Volume 2, Issue 319, 5 October 1908, Page 10

OUR YORKSHIRE LETTER.

DO SUPPLIES INFLUENCE PRICES? (FROM OUR SPECIAL COR RESPONDENT.) Bradford, August 21. During the whole of this year the question of supplies has been a lending topic of conversation and interest to the entire wool trade, due no doubt to the fact that these have gone off much more slowly thaii we have been accustomed to during the last few years. This really is the result of slackened trade, and an evidence of the heavy losses which wool users have had to face. Growers of the raw material since 1903 have- had the satisfaction of seeing consumption on tile top of supplies; in fact, this pleasant and profitable experience became evident towards the end of 1901, it increasing in volume, and force"up to tho middle of October,. 1907. Wherever wool was announced as being for sale, there buyers gathered to compete keenly for everything, it only being during the last eight months that we have seen a totally changed front on tho part of the trade. It is really surprising how men have sat upon the fence determined to buy as little as possible, this alone beiiig very sound evidence of the adverse times which have been prevailing. Everybody has tried to buy as little as they possibly could, simply because tli'ey have had little confidence in wool values, and to-day the trade is us much divided as ever in regard to the future. There would soon be a big buying movement if users were satisfied that prices had touched the bottom 1 , but with trade being so decidedly slow, prospects anything but cheering, and supplies extra large, there is little chance as yet for : an upward movement in values. The question of supplies which I specially want to consider is one that will always hnvo considerable weight in determining wool prices, though it is hard to see that this'feature of tho industry can be separated from its twin sister

demand. It's an oft-repeated axiom in all business circles that supply and demand regulato prices, but even here" there are at times exceptions to tho rule. The common idea is that a record supply of any commercial commodity means low prices, but in wool during recent years- this has hardly obtained. For instance, last year Australasia turned' out its record clip of 2,090,188 bales, and yet for all that values were uuusually high. . AMERICAN PROSPECTS. To many people in the trade the prospect of there being at least 200,000 bales available at the London September-October series, and the estimate that about 70,000 bales of unsold wool remained at Australian selling centres when the wool' year finished last June 30, is giving rise to some foreboding, for they fail to see how it can-possibly'mean any higher values. Very few- people expect that unless- America begins to buy in a very determined way, and I think there is little proof as vet to lead one to come to that conclusion. The candidates for the-American Presidency are both pledged to a certain-measure of tariff reform, but with the Republican chances being the brightest,, one can hardly expect to see any revision of the duties on fully manufactured textiles. If there is any amelioration of the excessive duties it. will certainly be on-raw wool, and thi's will "undoubtedly benefit all woolgrowing countries south -of ; the equator. In face of this promised tariff reform, I fail to see how America will operate freely unless they conic into the market and buy, deferring shipment until they see what is going to be done. It may bo interesting information to members of the trade to know that we have to go back to the September series, 1901, to' find anything like the quantity available at' this time .of the year for n London series, and in that year 283,620 bales were actually catalogued, tho series lasting 21 days, it being the longest series held since'that date. From that day the September series have graduallv got shorter and shorter, until in 1904' they lasted only nine days, 1905 eight days, 1906 nine days, and 1907 ton days. Suppose now there is available for the forthcoming auction's 200,000' bales', these could easily be got' through in sixteen or seventeen days, and if to-day's prices can be maintained, and there is no attempt made on the part of importers and dealers in futures'to sell prices.down' in order -to influence selling centres abroad, then I believe London -brokers .''i" their best to get rid of the quantity available before the hew wool comes on to the market. A changed temper on the part of buyers would very soon alter .prospective supplies, and it all depends upoir trade'inendincr.or otherwise as to whether the wool will', be shifted that is in sight. It can easily be done if the, trade has a mind to, and is at all 1 encouraged to lay in stock. / . THE STOCKS IN LONDON. . To t give readers some idea of what stocks are \ ll i .^ o on ' t" e following table supplies full details respecting the arrivals which are to hand up to the middle of this week. To make if "i i- s "F more complete; I include fiill details of the quantities held over from the July auctions:— . '; ■ 'Holdover Net Net ; and arrivals - quantify with- to Aug. availdrawn. 19.- able. „ ,r. , - Bales. Bales. Bales. N.S. Wales ... 15,(300 24.261 39.861 Victoria 11,800 12,101 23,901 Queensland ... 1,000 14,510 16,410 S. Australia ... 4,100 908 5,068 W: Australia . ... §00 ; .693 " 1,498 Tasmania. - ... SOO ■' .1,302" 2,102 New Zealand.,- ...'• 49,500 .. 45,027/ 94,527 A'uStraliisian 54.500 98;867' .'.183,367 South- African' ..; -. 3,500 4,954 :: 8,454 Net totals ... 83,000 103,821' . loi.sjl' I ain fully convinced that in the future verv adequate supplies are . going to tell Upon Avpol prices, and all the .more so because of an- ab'sfince of robust trade to give tone and strength to the market. Although nve are told that the 6omiiig : Australian ."clip will probably "show a' falling off of 25,000 bales,-still .what-with the largo quantity of tlio old clip unmarketed and tho lessened consumption, there is little chance yet of values recovering- materially. AVliateverybody is'wanting to' see is a move at' the manufacturing orid of the trade, and not until there is a response there, will any impression bo made upon values. Everybody feels very comfortable over supplies, but to. learn that the" coming Australian clip will show ho improvement on the last is not inspiring to those who were looking forward to longer stapled wools and less foreign matter. However, a brisk, trade would bring about a corresponding healthy demand for the raw material, and possibly there may be better times ahead notwithstanding poor.trade at present, and threatened trouble 'by ;way of a strike in the Lancashire cotton industry. Much short time-'is being worked, and -now the masters are determined on a 5 per cent, reduction in wages.