The Dominion TUESDAY, SEPTEMBER 29, 1908. HOME POLITICS.

Dominion, Volume 2, Issue 314, 29 September 1908, Page 6

The Dominion TUESDAY, SEPTEMBER 29, 1908. HOME POLITICS.

The defeat just sustained by the Liberals in such' a representative constituency as Newcastle-on-Tyne serves to emphasise the growing conviction that the days of the present British Government are numbered. The Liberals were returned to power in January, 1906, after an almost unbroken spell of twenty years in opposition, with the'largest majority known in modern times. The exact figures were: Liberals 379, Unionists 157, Labour members 51, and Nationalists' 83. Thus the Government had tho huge majority of 222 over the Unionists, and a majority of 88 over all parties combined. With such a majority there was a natural expectation by tho world at large. that some sweeping legislative changes would take place. It can hardly be claimed that these expectations havo been fulfilled. An unkind fato seems to have been fighting against the Government from the very outset. Precedent tells us that English Ministries usually hold their own in the constituencies for at least two years after- their return to power. The present Government lost ground at the first by-elec-tion, held'only six weeks after the General Election, and, save at one election, whore owing to local causes there was no contest, it has lost ground at every election since. The figures aro so interesting that wo aro tempted to give them. Excluding the Cornwall (St. Austell) election, there havo boon 49 elections sincc January, 1906. The Government has not gained a single ( seat. The Unionists have gained nine, Labour one, and the Socialists 1. In every one of tho 49 elections, tho Government majority has materially decreased, or has disappeared altogether. Taking tho 47 elections where tho real fight lay between tho Government and tho Unionists, wo extract the following striking figures, showing tho Government and Unionist votes for these seats. General Election, lOOfi By-Elcctions since Government votes ... 241,121 201,158 Unionist votes ... 191,377 214,367 Thus, the strength of the Government has fallen off to the known extent of 42.C26 votes, and the Unionist strength has increased by 22,990 votes, a total gain to the latter of 66,626 votes. And tho lofit scats include byoi£ .variety ol

constituency. There is another fcaturo that these figures illustrate. ! Tho Liberals in 1906 won no fewer thin 43 seats by majorities of less than 500j With so many seats held at the caprice of, at the most, 251 voters in each case, tho Liberal majority, as a writer at tho time would seom to have keen born with a delicate constitution.! Fortythree seats (counting 86 on a'division) were to be won by the transference of 10,800 votes, and already the Opposition are stronger by 65,000 votes. Ihe result of the next General Election scims to bo foreshadowed. I

Two points naturally suggest themselves for consideration. Why have tho Liberals so quickly and so completely lost the confidence of the country 1 And how soon will the General 'Election come? The fact that in March, 1906, people were beginning to regret the votes given by them in January, suggests that at the General Election many votes were given under the influence of some violent but fleeting impulse. An impulse of this may have been caused! by the terminological inexactitudes "j of tho Chinese labour campaign, arising out of the introduction of Chinese labour to the South African mines. Whatever it was, it quickly evaporated, and we havo only to deal with what we woiild call normal forces. Of these Tariff i Reform and fear of the Government's Socialistic leanings wero probably, at thtf outset, the chief factors in tho Unionist successes. Anti-Socialism seems to have somewhat receded from notice of late and Tariff Reform is a doubtful,issue. Latterly, tho Licensing Bill seems to havo helped to defeat its authors. But whilo we by no means undor-estimato the strength of these points, they :hardly supply a full explanation of the Unionist victories. To obtain this, we miist look at the actions of the Ministry itself. It has been charged against tho Government that it has elected to make two of its chief measiires weapons whereivith to chastise its political opponents. |Of tho first Education Bill, it need only'be said that it drew from Mr. John Bedmoxd the Temark, " Thank God, there is a Hcuse of Lords! " The Licensing Bill is a good Bill in many respects. It is the corollary of Mr. Balfour's excellent | Act; Unfortunately" it has given riso to suspicion of political partisanship of the worst class. The period iduring which compensation can be paid has been so shortened as to amount almost to confiscation and this step, it is freely assorted, has been takon to punish the brewery companies for their political opinions. On tho other hand the Government has definitely refused to includo the holders of grocers! liquor licenses within tho scopo of the Bill, and yet it is to this class of licenso that the growth of intemperance amongst women' of the upper and lower middle classes is mainly attributed. Because the House o'f : Lords will, amend both measures freely, and because tho ■ Cabinet is not exactly a* " happy family," it is believed that a General Election will take place in the early part of next year. Tho Liberal platform will probably bo abolition or amendment of tho Constitution of the House of Lords, old ago pensions, Free .Trade, and a measure of Homo Rule, though it will probably bear some other name. But there is one matter which, conceivably, may bring on an election at an earlier date. Recent cable messages toll us that English public opinion is seriously awakening to the idea tliat German preparations for war are aimed at Britain. From that to a general outburst of anger at tho manner in which the naval shipbuilding programme has been cut down is but a short step, and, at any moment, history may repeat itself, for the last Liberal Government was cjected for a similar neglect' of national defenco.