THE EUROPEAN OUTLOOK.

Dominion, Volume 1, Issue 302, 15 September 1908, Page 10

THE EUROPEAN OUTLOOK.

A CLOOMY VIEW. A very gloomy view of the present international situation iii Europe is set fortli m tho "Fortnightly Review," under tho familiar signature of "Calchas." Taking' as his text what is now' beiiig called "Tho Triple Entente" of Britain, France, and Russia, this well-known writer declares that in spite of diplomatic efforts to create an unprecedented system of; defensive tees, the actual position becomes more and not less. precarious. It is from Germany, tho most formidable and least satisfied of European Powers," that danger is threatened. The objects of , the conventions and understandings into which Groat Britain has entered, and.which .make her the centre of a sort of informal league of States, are purely pacific. Their main intention has to insure the; status quo against attack. The isolation of Germany has not been deliberately aimed at, or even desired, but it suits the Wilhelmstrasse, as the German Foreign Office is called, to pretend te see, in the' diplomaticreconstruction, a conspiracy against Germany's welfare. Through its Pross' organs it is' persistently suggesting this idea to the German masses, and leading them to infer that if war should come tho Prussian swol'd will be justly unsheathed to cut the toils. ... • The ; fact of. the matter ; is, that the "League of Peace," if we may so term it, is proof of the failure of the foreign policy which Germany has pursued,since the days of Bismarck:- That policy has been directed to securing German dominance in Europa by keeping other Powers, for example Britain and Franco, Britain and Russia,- France and Italy, Russia and Austria;'perpetually at variance. In the words of "Calchas," it'has been a policy of "acting as judicious bottleholder to' both sides, with a slight prejudice in favour-of the bigger man." Bismarck wrought in secret, and-did not scare'the Powers by disclosing ' his sinister purposes, but- he ' kept in his' hands- the keys, and prevented : other ; countries, whether allied with his own or 1 not,' from forming' any combination. - Germany was thus "a- block of granite in 'a mass -of .rubble." Emperor William, however,' does not possess the -Iron Chancellor's reticence. He loves to play his moves with a flourish of trumpets. Consequently, the Powers soou began to grow alarmed at .tho' open disclosure of Bismarckian methods.. When Emperor William's ostentatious display replaced the old Chancellor's .profound intrigue, they gradually' drew together,. until at last they were forced in defence of mutual interests'. to settle outstanding differences. " It had become clear to several of the' great powers .simultaneously,", remarks " Calchas," " that unless some strong counterpoise was set up, Germany would!.become in turn the arbiter of the' destinies of every nation on. whose interests she impinged. She had challenged the most vital of all British interests at sea/ She. had challenged the most' vital interest 'of Russia in the Near East. , By ' forcing the Third Republic to dismiss M. Delcasse, and adding terrorism to humiliation'—threatening war unless the entente, cordiale were submitted to tho veto of Berlin—the supreme interest of Franco was challenged, her diplomatic independence, the very life of her, national honour, her national existence itself." . , 1 Macedonia, the Persiaii Gulf, Morocco, to mention but three points, all provide possiblo pretexts for Germany to force a dispute. To_ prevent such a dispute is the great motive behind the Triple Entente, but tho international tension, according to "Calchas," is so great that it can hardly- be increased without coming to flash point. : "If,"is his conclusion—with special reference to the Near East,, but of general application —" if the course of policy, increases German chances of success in a postponed struggle, she will keep the peace.. If the diplomacy of other, seems likely to place hqr in the 'long, run. at a. serious military disadvantage, she will break the peace. But if war comes,at,<la^t; v .it can come-upon therinitiation of no power in Europe, but one. Unless war is declared at Berlin it will not be declared. And if the sword is drawn, at last, lest the insurance system ;of the: Triple . Entente should become more, effective witli the lapse of time, the cause will be simple. II will not be because Germany is isolated,' bul because the Bismarckian principle of isolat ing every other Power has finally failed;"