AT MANCHESTER.

Dominion, Volume 1, Issue 178, 22 April 1908, Page 7

AT MANCHESTER.

SUFFRAGISTS ACTIVE. THE SOCIALIST AND IRISH VOTES. EIGHT HOURS BILL. BV TF.Lr.GHAPH —PHES3 ASSOCIATION —COPYRIGIIT. , London, April 20. In connection with by-election for Ncrth-wcst Manchester, the suffragists aro straining every ner'vo to heat Mr. Winston Churchill, President of the Board of Trado. ■ "Tho Times" says that apart from the prospect of tho loss of a hundred votes to Mr. D. Irving, tho Socialist candidate, tho transfer of,five hundred votes to Mr. iJoyn-son-Hicks (Unionist) must rather Upset tho calculations of Mr. Churchill. He had great hopes of carrying the solid Irish vote. .Mr. Joynson-Hiolcs, .in a speech, described tho Mines Eight Hours Bill as a tax on raw material, and said the action of Freetraders in supporting it was inconsistent. SOME HYPOTHETICAL ARGUMENTS. Pre-election arithmetic is always of uncertain quality, but "The Times" apparently is relying on the previously cabled statement that, out of 000 Irish "electors in Manchester, 500 will not .vote for Mr; Churchill; while 100 will vote fort'/.e Socialist 'candidate. If the hypothetical filO lfiavo Mr. Churchill and vote for the' Unionist candidate Mr. '.Toynson-Hicks, the effect must be to reduce Mr. Churchill's majority- by jIOOO votes, as he loses 50Q; which his .opponent gains. On the other haucj, the hypothetical 100 votes that'< go to tho Socialist .candidate will only help Mr. .Toynson-Hicks to tho extent of reducing Mr. Churchill's total by 100. Mr. Churchill loses GOO, Mr. Joyiison- . Hicks gains 500; Mr. Churchill's total at last election is therefore reduced from 5G39 to ■5039,.whi1e Mr, Joynson-Hicks's total is raised from 439S to i?9B;' making the Churchill majority HI instead' of 12-11. All this is, of ; epu'rso, subject to tile, hypothetical figures being correct, and subject to there. being no transfers, of votes. in. the, .reverse . direction,' that is: from Joynson-Hicks to ChurchilK In fact, the amount of "if" about' the whole calculation is excessive. The faot that the present election is triangular, whereas tho last one was dual, has an unsottling effect. Still the Unionists rely on the. proabbility that the Socialist candidate will take more' Liberal than Unionist votes; that tho Irish will support. Mr. Jovnson-Hicks in preference to Mr. Churchill; that tho suffragists will do somo damage with , their "agin the Government" policy; and that thnso influences and tariff reform—combined with tlio general disintegrating tendency noticbablo in-Government majorities—will just about (urn Mr. Churchill's margin .of mi votes into a deficit. "■