The Dominion. FRIDAY, MARCH 6, 1908. THE INDUSTRIAL OUTLOOK.

Dominion, Volume 1, Issue 139, 6 March 1908, Page 6

The Dominion. FRIDAY, MARCH 6, 1908. THE INDUSTRIAL OUTLOOK.

Tiie gentlemen whose opinionsupon the outlook for trade .and industry we published ypgterday . were free, from any. cphstraiiit to paint a rosy picture at aIE costs. . tlie majority 'of > them, therefore, differed, very greatly in. tone from the .speeches in which the Premier consistently '.assures' his audiences that everything is "simply magnificent," and that the country was never before in*so, happy and comfortable, a position, as it. is in at present. Nobody objects to the policy of putting a good face upon things, but the immoderate optimism qf the . Premier, : and his reluctance to dilute his rejoicings with even a suggestion; that prudence s is' as necessary in good times ;as in bad, tend to put a false . face upon 1 things... ; By poring upon the array)of |fip:ures : "w]iich ;th;e Premier .produced at Dargaville, and refusing 1 to consider any data save those which show ; an . increased reA'enue, one might easily come to the conclusion that the country ■ can,! without danger, indulge in a carnival of holiday extravagance. But when the observer turns from the v ledger, and pushes his: inquiry into the beneath or behind the figures, tlie reality turns out to'' be something very dift'erent from the iipage of the statistics. The gentlemen whom we. interviewed are all competent to, express an opinion upon the industrial and financial outlook, and the cautious attitude of the majority.is an arresting.fact: . According to' Mr. J. Gf. Harkriess, tlje doming Avinter is going to be, a '• fairly severe" one for .the agriculturist. The drought and the fires have not only resulted in a direct destruction of a large part of the fruits of agriculture, but have also inflicted upon farmers the secondary hardship , of forced sales of stock, in some instances at ruinous rates. . Mr. ,'A.itken, pointed out that there has been a general drop in most produce values with the exception of butter,. and that it unfortunately happens that the limited butter output will prevent our. taking advantage of the exception. The serious fall in the price of hemp lias already resulted in' the closing down of some of'the flfixuiills. There has also been a sharp fall in wool. Mr. Harkness and Mr. Aitken both agree in anticipating that the depression of the general body of industry will " prove sufficient to produce more than the usual amount of unemployment during the winter. Accompanying this ; setback to primary production is a tightening of.'the money market. With an optimism that even the Premier might envy, Mr. T. K, Macdonald thinks that '-the prospects for trade, locally at any rate, ; were never brighter," but Messrs. Beauchamp, Harkness, and Aitken take, and we think rightly, a contrary view. The tightness of the money-market, as displayed in the incrca6ed i bank-rate and the scarcity of accommodation, has results extending far beyond tlie bank and its immediate customer. Mr. Beauchamp especially safeguarded

himself at all points from quotation as a pessimist, but nevertheless there can bo only one interpretation of his references to " a substantial volume in the contraction of trade," to the feeling of " monetary institutions that would-be borrowers should not be encouraged to purchase farm lands at the (present) abnormal rates," and to the necessity that " caution should be the watchword of all." It may be that the Harbour works and .the new gasworks at Miraraar will stimulate business localty, as 'Mr. Macdoiiakl suggests; but it is (taking an entirely wrong view of economic principles to regard the "large expenditure on the re-erection of the Parliamentary Buildings" as so much gain. The labour involved in that work does not create new wealth: it merjely replaces an unreproductive but necessary luxury.. It is waste of time,,of course, to tell the public that it must be cautious. 'The public generally is cau-' tious, and the incautious speculator gets the cure for his recklessness in its results. The only quarter which can be addressed .with profit in such a situation 1 as the present is the Government. So far is the Premier, however, from contemplating a programme of economy that he appears'to think that he cannot too often or too emphatically, assure the public that the financial position of the country is buoyant almost beyond words. The country is prosperous, of Course, and its position is -good, but when a Minister for Finance never wearies of rejoicing over his revenue, it is reasonable, to suppose that he does not, contemplate a slackening of his'expensive , pace. As a matter of fact, ( he seems to be more concerned with 'a defence of every penny of his expenditure , than with the more prosaic business of considering how lie may save money. " I only count the sunny hours" is'a very good boast for a'sun-dial, but it is itlie busi-ness-of a Premier to take account of the passing clouds. '>■-■■■■