THE COMING WINTER.

Dominion, Volume 1, Issue 138, 5 March 1908, Page 6

THE COMING WINTER.

OUTLOOK FOR .TRADE AND ' .'INDUSTRY. UNFAVOURABLE'OMENS, OPINION IX BUSINESS WOLES. The state o'frtrado and the outlook for th'a coming winter-are being keenly discussed just now in commercial and financial circles, r 'u reCo S n * se f| that from the point of view of the genaral prosperity of the people, there are several unfavourable omens, such as \ha fall m wool and hemp, frozen meat,. hides, skms, and .tallqffi-;< the cessation of the export of dairy produce, the hardening tendency o the money nidrket, and tsw recent further; •increases in tKoOprices of sow# of the necessaries of life. Several leading commercial' and financial authorities wore interviewed yesterday by a Dominion roporter and asked to express their* opinions on tho state of trade and tho outlook for 'the coming winter as affecting' tho community in general. Tha replies given ■ varied in tone from rather gloomy foreboding buoyant optimism. , THE FARMER'S WINTER.". 1 r Harkness, President of tlie Wellington Chamber of Comnwrce, and Secretai'y of Uie Dairy Association, said . "'6re could bo no question that th« coming wmter .was ? going to be . a fairlj severe one from the- farming standpoint. Th< loss of feed through, drought, and 7 fires had been such _that livo stock of all kinds had been sold in all parts of the country; for a niere song. He. learnt'that the: root crops in laranaki; wore "a '.failure, and this was doubtless the case iri-, otlior parts of tho Dominion also.. -The, winter'was, bound to ■ e ii 1 ' Y. cv y ? tryixg one for the farmers, especially, for those who had' made no | other provision ..for winter feeding> than root crops. On tho other , ; hand, tho late splendid rains, it 1 followed , by. fine warm would result in a considerable : growth of grass for autumnand winter., "i" ,r " , r - Parkiiess thought that tho price of butter, which has now dropped to ; 118s: on the London market, would increase againbeyond that figure, but might fall.-further. Consequently, it would payi'.the makers of butter to sell locally, .'and therefore anticipated that the butter retained in tho Dominion would meet" requirements^

cue lioiidon market, would increase again beyond that figure, but might fall -further. Consequently, it would payi'.the makers of butter to, sell locally, .'and . therefore anticipated that the butter retained in tho I?ominion would meet requirfenients. .THE OUTLOOK FOR LABOUR, In regard to the, money market? Mr. Harkness observed that certain finaiioial institutions in Wellington wliich usually' had large' sums of money to lend, had at the presenttime no. funds available for-the purpose; .This fact, .with the : riso .of : the bank rate of interest, indicated a state of things that must give a check to industry' that would ■be felt by all classes. . In tjiis connection,' Mr. Harkness repeated his as ; expressed on other occasions, that the. Government .'should • rsise* its loans abroad,, and leave local capital • •for:;local requirements. ;He,'thought, that .during tho coming- winter the'dearn'ess . of money and other-causes; such as .the'probable closing. of_a number of flaxmills owing to reduced profits,, might .lead to. a'considerable amount of unemployment, 'although there was at the present time an unsatisfied demand for labour in-certain kinds.of- rural work. ... :;• A TIME FOR CAUTION. Mr. J. G. W. Aitken, M.P., said, tiie prospects were not. so good.. as- they..were this time last ; year. The prices "of our export products were lower, with the exception of butter, but, as we had no butter to send Home, the' exception would not help' us. In ■regard to the flax industry,".'and the'recent fall in tho.price of hemp, he did not see-how ! flaxmillers could carry on at a profit if they still had to pay the hoavy royalties which they had, lately been . charged. - The wool ; market was'.seriously'affected" by the'financial situation at' Home. The stocks held werri not hoavy, but tho possible .buyers hesitated- because, .they,(Were not; sure -of;, getting : money from the hank's joh'suitable, terms.' Thus the unc^rtainty*'of : tlto'moneymarket ! -wis''preventing the -wool from going 'into manufactures-;, . Money here was not so easy: to obtain as it had..been, and the conditions -generally tended''towards mo.re' unemploy'' ment than , usual during- the coming winter. He l anticipated that a great .deal: more, caution would be shown all rouhd than had been noticeable for somo years past. : - AN optimist; ' . The Hon.; T.\ Kennedy Macdonald, M.L.C., sounded quite, a different .note. He ,declared that the prospects for, trade,, locally at any rate, were never brighter.' The works to be carriedout in connection with the'.Wellington Harbourißpard during the,present year, would' .'involve ;an - expenditure, of between ' £250,000 and £300,0t)0.Then, there would' he a largo'expenditure on tho re-erection of the Parliamentary : Buildings,' l and also, lie was :surei' th 6. building of a; new,-residence for: tho Governoi\ The ,Gas Compaay, too, would bo commencing its /.new works at Miramar.•" All these:.'were', extraordinary works that would mean the circulation of enormous sums! of - money, quite o\ltside the regular run of business enterprises and city improvements. Therefore): business locally during; the ' ensuing winter 'certain to receive a great fillip.. ' 'i : ' 'All this talk. about' tho fall.in ;.wool and the, rest of it)", said Mr."Macdonald, "is true up'to a certain point, but it caniiot;he, gainsaid, 'that the selling prices of ■ all our agricultural, products to-aay aro such as to yield, a, . substantial profit to every; grower.' It is quite idle for men who'are pessimistio about everything connected'.' with'- their-lives to talk about bad times and'low prices.''-

NO CAUSE FOR"ANXTETY; , Mr. Harold Beauchamp , said ..'.that'.', the rade of the Dominion had been affectcd by ;ho considerable fall in the-'Values.'' of • wool, iemp, and. other product's. This, as well, as ;he lengthened drought-and "other "'"causes,' lad led' to the storekeepers throughout tho lountry adopting a cautious, policy ill buy. ng, with tho result had been a. substantial contraction 'in the volume of :rade. " Still he' thought ' there 'was- no. occasion for any real anxiety, as. tho ;drought lad terminated, and the present .warm rams vould result in a good growth of grass be-, 'ore the winter. Tho engagements of-trad-es were being .well' met, and up to the piosent, thero 'was an immunity from bad, debt! )f any consequence. FALL IN LAND VALUES. v , ,"I would not say that-there is an actual scarcity of; money;"■ coutinued- Mr.. Bcauiharnp, "but monetary institutions seem to 3e impressed with: the idea Mat lvould-be ■ • Dorrowers should riot be encouraged to pur:hase farm lands at the abnormal rates that . aave been ruling for somo timo past, v " As chairman of-the Bant of New Zealand ; I have on more than; one occasion Ira'wn attention to the high land ; values, .vhich were based on the prices obtained for jur leading products. I emphasised the fact thaj; there was no assurance that these high' prices would, continuo for-any length; •• jned. period, and'that a fall would lioccssarily do accompanied by a reduction in the ralue of farm lands, and.that is now taking • place."-. '. , THE WATCHWORD. . Mr. Beauchamp did not timiK the. condition of the money markot would lead to any serious restriction of trade: Caution should je tho watchword of all, but there was not ;he least occasion for alarm. - One had only to look at the.savings of tho people in-the Post Office Savings Bank, \and . tho large imount of. money held on fixed and freo ieposit by the banks throughout the county, to realiso how comfortable tho circumstances of the people were on the' wholo. L'lie hardoning of the rate of interest in the Dominion was' duo largely to the diminution n the value of our leading exports. Mr. Beauchamp estimated that the shrinkago in ,vool would amount to not less than two mil. ions: storling. . This, spread, over, the comnullity, must have an. eft'ect equivalent to - •educing the- spending pover of. every man, ,voman, and child by £2. This would ,not, lowover, be greatly accentuated by the high : vices of some of the necessaries of life. riio recent increases in the prices of butter, '■ neat, and milk in tile local market would )o, Mr. Beauchamp thouaht. onlv. tomDoriry, ■,