The Dominion. THURSDAY, DECEMBER 26, 1907. WHEAT AND THE WHITE RACE.

Dominion, Volume 1, Issue 78, 26 December 1907, Page 4

The Dominion. THURSDAY, DECEMBER 26, 1907. WHEAT AND THE WHITE RACE.

"As the. world's wheat crop has been given so much prominence this past quarter, it may be interesting to.compare the total returns for the different countries in 1907 as against those of 189S, as given in the V' Corn Trade News':— '' 1007. .■;.... 1898. Quarters. Quarters.. Europe ... 199,040,000 ■; 198.410.000 America "... 110,500,000 114,000,000 Asia ... '... 41,500,000/ 39,500,000 Africa ... 7,000,000 .6,789,000' Australasia ... 0,500,000 0,778,000 World's total 304,510,000 360,077,000 This is an apparent shortage of only 1,537,000 quarters, or, as one .might say, in dealing with such huge figures, approximately the'same this year as ten years since.". In these terms Mr. Kaye, the President of the Canterbury Chamber of Commerce, in his address at the Chamber's ■ qμartcrly meeting not long ago, dismissed the wheat problem that had- been disturbing the world for several ; months. The quotation is typical of the average man's determination to pooh-pooh the bogies of the scientists who have so often raised false cries of "Wolf!" in the past. Yet, in spite of the reassuring figures given in the '" Corn Trade News," thoughtful people are paying more respect than usual to the warnings of Science respecting the .gradual outstripping of the world's wheat productiveness by the world's growth of population. In due course, it is pre-

dieted, the soil of tlie world will reach its utmost capacity, but the population will' continue to increase,, and starvation will follow. The scare is an old one, originating, we believe, with Maltlius, who was led by a consideration of the dreadful outlook to' urge the restriction of population with which his name is associated. It has been revived again by two of' the foremost living scientists, Sir William Croolcea and Professor Silvanus Thompson, the latter of whom contributes an article on the subject to the October number of the " World's Work." The wheat area of the world is 240,000,000 acres, and although it only yields U bushels to the acre at present, according to the figures quoted by Kaye, it can be relied upon to furnish 3,0(30,000,000, bushels annually when properly exploited, or food for 660,000,000 people. Ii is estimated that the wheat-eating peoples, who are the white peoples and the peoples in contact with them, number 585,000,000 persons. According to Sir William Crookes, they will number 671,000,000 in the year 1921. It would seem, therefore, that the limit to the amount of food that can be raised would cause a shortage of wheat to set in within twenty years. Were it not for the Chilian nitrates, the shortage would have been felt by now, and it seems to be an established fsct that the Chilian

deposits will be exhausted ' 'in a period estimated by various authorities at from sixteen to forty-eight years." Scientists are now turning their attention to the greatest of. all nitrogen reservoirs, the atmosphere, in order that the world may not starve. Already there are processes in operation which " fix" the atmospheric nitrogen, the most interesting being a Norwegian process for the production of nitrate of lime by burning nitrogen to form nitrous acid, and combining the acid with lime. The wholesale use of atmospheric nitrogen for the manures necessary to bring out the full wheatproducing .possibilities of the earth is therefore to be expected before many years have passed. Against the scientists' gloomy predictions may be set the plain fact that the 585,000,000

wheat eaters exist very well on the 1J bushel average, and that therefore the 12i bushel average which Science will yield will support over 4,600,000,000 eaters of wheat. But if population continues to increase at its present rate, and is assisted in the future by the disappearance of war and pestilence, Science can only postpone the day of trouble. Will the world tend towards a gradual dwindling and a final cessation of the rate of increase? More than once the stationary point has been forced upon Japan by natural causes.

For tlic white races, a grave problem will precede the final difficulty. Wheat is the most nourishing , of cereals, and the early history of Europe is at its root the history of struggles for possession of the fat lands that furnished the white bread. With the restriction of their wheat supply, and its gradual dwindling, forcing them to support life upon a basis of the rice and maize of the East, the wheateaters must suffer in strength, and it is believed that they would gradually lose their places to the .fellow and black rice-eating peoples. Naturalists long ago discovered that birds or animals, taken from natural conditions and given food to which they were strangers, may thrive and improve.in a remarkable degree. But it has never been shown that animals which, either by accident or by the intervention of man, have left a poor natural diet for a good new one, can keep up their standard when turned back to the old methods of subsistence. The "wheateaters " will therefore suffer when driven, as whole races, to subsist on the poorer cereals, and will in course of time be unable to maintain' their dominance over the coloured races. Of course'there is a lesson for New Zealand in this condition of things. No small country can support more than a fixed number of people, and if New Zealand is thoroughly well 'populated, and agriculture is at the same time encouraged by every possible moans, there will be little cause for anxiety over anything but armed invasion. We ought therefore'to encourage agricultural keep within our borders the agriculturists who are seeking , the more profitable land of Australia. We ought at the same time to give every encouragement to the farmer, and.at least to' refrain from adding to the burdens at present resting'' upon his shoulders. Professor Lowrie, of Lincoln College, declares that he could more profitably work the malice-land of Australia ;than£3o-per-acre land in this country.. While that state of things continues the primary industries of New Zealand, are enormously below the efficiency that alone can make this country stable, wellpopulated and prosperous. •