THE REAL JAPANESE PROBLEM.

Dominion, Volume 1, Issue 20, 18 October 1907, Page 5

THE REAL JAPANESE PROBLEM.

$ AIUIAMEN'TS AND FINANCE; Mr.. F. A. M'Kenzie writes in.,thc. "Daily Mail": Viscount'Hayashii speaking not long ago at Tokio as Japanese Minister for Foreiga AHairs, expressed his. surprise at "the suspicion prevailing abroad, .even in high circles, concerning the alleged military expansion and'aggressive policy of-Japan." . Suchsuspicion ,he declared, was due to '"astonishing ignorance of the real, conditions in Japan." No statement by' Viscount' Hayashi can fail to be .received with respect in this, country. The cliarmiiig. personality., and high character of the former ex-Ministcr to Lqn- ; ■ ' ilon won for'him' universal regard and. con.' tidence. . ' •, A REMARKABLE BUDGET. It is undeniable that there,, is a . certain ; amount of.uneasiness existing to-day rcgafd- , ing the immediate outlook'in Japan. The high hero-worship cf the early clays of' the war was bound to' be followed' by a reaction. That "reliction. has been helped vby three , tilings: the continuous rise in Japanese.ha*.-., tiqnal'expenditure, the recent increase.of the. army and navy, and the wave of specular' tiou now passing over commercial Japan. : • Any- oilier- country presenting, a Budget such as that ofv tile Mikado's kingdom tiii? year would be regarded as oh the nigh road to . national -bankruptcy. Japan has in- the past exhibited 'such. striking financial skill, and her commerce is increasing'at so ainalzmg a rate.,that no Such fear is entertained. Still, the financial .outlook is overcast. Broadly speaking,, the regular incomo for . the pre- 1 sent year is £42,000,000, and the expenditure £61,000,000... The deficit of over .eighteen ;v millions'is made'up from surplus war funds, temporary loans; the sale of. Government pro-perty,-and the like. The Government docs., not ' propose any additional taxation, becauso . taxation is still on its war'basis, and is so high,-that.it i?. borne by .-tho,people with dif-, . licult-y. ' . - 1 .;' ' ■, There has\ rarely, if ever,-. been-a. case of ... national expenditure rising so rapidly as that of. Japan has risen. In olden times the Budget camo to six or- eight millions, a- year.. Ky.eii so l.i'te-Jis' 1893 thii' total expenditurewas only £7,800,000; by 1900 this had risen to £'29,000,000. How. can this increasing burden bo sustained? The one great fact in favour of Japan'is:that hpr commerce is also' : growing rapidly. During 1906 tho -export trade in-Japanese goods-rose fr0m.£32,000,000 to £42,000,000. 'Thus.tlic_ amount received from taxation, is increasing consider- ", ably. After 1911 ,whcn ; complete tariff autonomy is recovered,' Ja'pdri'.'will bo> able to .readjust her.Customs duties, to'tiny extent, she. pleases.. It is generally' assumed, also,- that Japanlias: a largo: balanco,/between twenty; '. and thirty j'millions sterling',, left'over from > its war-loans. -.But there aro;limits .to taxation, and. at the-bottom'.wo>,have'. the fact that/'Japau is essentially 'poor.; ■ TO BUSINESS RIVALS. , ; Japan is,.undoubtedly aided :by one of the most .able, group, of .financiers of tho,.time. Tho: Department' of Financo at'Tokio has do- , served as well of'the nation' as did. Togo or,, Nogi. But the clovcresi.'financiers cannot . . accomplish'the impossible."" ' ' .Some uneasiness, his b.e.en-oxcited in this, country, by the fact that all appreciable part , . pf, Japanese expenditure is. caused by\Gov-, pr.niiieiit' subsidies' and grants, to industries , that are directly competing -'■ with British. !y trade. Hero ivo.nccd to clear our minds of cant; ;'.''Ja'pan has' undoubtedly alright' to", ~. fight us cnmm'ercially'whilo co-operating with.,'; us. politically? W'e are military Jriends, 'but '' , political"'friendship . d6es' 'ni>texclude com- "; ' merciiii rivalry!' '- ' Japan has" every right- to grant special .;>■ subsidies to.'her. merchant ships vas points where they : are seekjng to drive British ships ~!, nIC the seas,' as ,sho does'; Japan has every , ' justification iii'hampering tho foreign' capi- _ t-alist' in 'her' own 'as $he.'does. ,- japan is only following the.example of many " Western I'owors when she utilises .her.position: in Manchuria-and in Korea for. the. ad- "" : ' vantage of her own trades and!to tho,detri- _ ilient of the'foreigner. It'isiabsiml for us to-- 1 -'-''-" wax indignant over this.' But Japaneso ;' must not bo indignant'on' their side if cur liiianc'iora dbcidc- in timb; that they will with-'-. hold .loans that. are to be used, wholly or m part, for buildiiig' up" in the'Pacillc "a com- ' niorco destructive to our own.': ■ _ > The recent enormous increase in . iiesearnlv and" iiavy has'caused some', surprise. . ! The '.1907- Budget: provides 'for', an 1 - oxtra four new divisions .to tho army,-besides special. ; cavalry brigades, .heavy' artillery brigades', and'arjtillcry' writh quick-fircrs. At'' the same'time an alteratkn is being made ' : in the poriodof service' witl 'tho colours that will- in a'short time add oC per cent. to the' strength of tho infantry- reserves.-Under -~- - (his now scheme Japan will bo able to put in tho field a. lighting army of 75,000 men, and to maintain it with adequate' reserves. J.'he.i infantry"are ' being re-armed, and-the coast forts have been given new guns.' " VASTLY'INCREASED ARMAMENTS- ' In the navy, all the Russian ships that wers captured are'tol.be thoroughly repaired, refitted, and commissioned. ■ A; number of fresh vessels aro being laid', down, one' of . > . thorn ovor;22,000 :,tons in, size, or about 18 • " ■ per cent, larger than our' Dreadnought. The ■ subsidised and ,'semi-ollicial dockyards in Kobe, Nagasaki,' and,.Osaka,.aro working, at high pressure,-, constructing submarines and , . torpedo-boat' uoistroycrs.;., ~ The growth of. naval and military: expenditure' can best be,, . jmlged by comparing tho figures iiuthe Bud- ~: ~ Sets foiviyOGiahd lyO(. ...', woe.; .;:.,1907. Army..:' . , Yeii:,..:. "Yoiii ■*, Drdinary expen.,, ...,' 50,400,351. ■ 53,663,783. , Extraordinary expen. 1,076,7.42 -. 57,953,380 ! Total 111,617,163 '.'. Navy." ■' fJrdinary cxponi - .28,9X4,07333,414,695 - .... liist-raordiiiany espen:.' 10,615j834 4.9,067,524 . ~ ; - ' : 39,529,927:-82,182)219,' ' ; One! s yen,is about.2s., - What is the purpose of tliis great'increase jf.i'armnment's'? It. is. certainly -unnetossary . lor. purposes of national .defence. Thanks to .. nor.- geographical position, .and to-; her aliinice .with Great Britain, Japan, to-da)- is in .{v« most seciirb' position 'in world politics',';. Nothing but an aggressive''and prov'oca'.tiva, actioh en her part can bring about any. coin-, bination of Powcrs agaitist her: An invasion jfdicr'soil.is practically an impossibility.; "I beg-' leave; to declnre, not only on the part of trovernhieut, but on .behalf of the whoi»' ' , nation, "that 'Japan has'iici aggressivo inteii'"''.;' jioiis whatever," said Viscount Hayashi. Tlia ' li'clarations aiid the actions' of the Govern. inent do. not 'apparently support one' an'', 1 jtiicr.- ' '' " ' ! ' ; -.'' 'JAPANESE SOOTH SEA BUBBLES. ■' ' The increase of official expenses has been iceqmpiinied by a great .wave of speculation .: ' in business life. ; Diiringilast;Decembei'alone new companies were established ill Japan,i'or iltl ones oxtended, with a capital of about" L' 17,000,000. .. Tli.o'"new companies,-begun. siiiee the und of the war reckon tbqir capitals , by tlie liundreir.millions. Cotton mills, electfio- power,-,work's, electrjc .lighting stations, . ■' ihipping. c6in])anies, baiiks, and insuraiico are ill joiiiing in tbi r mini rush.. The,inflation of, . nominal capital'is far bcyond;what real business ihstilies.. The state, qf,'(affairs in the-...-iiusinesK world iymore and tiiorc resembling, the sitifation in ' England at tho . time of the , South Sea Rubble.'. No'scheme'.is too mad to. obtain support 1 . There is,undoubtedly a very, solid .increase''in Japaneso' business, but this . spcciilatiro' fever is-rjiiitc apart from it. A race of speculative millionaires is arising. All:.that people'aro. content-to trouble- . / themselves nowadays,'! said Count jkiinia, a well-known statesman of Japan, , 1 recently, "is tlie so-called inauguration of lew., companies,.' speculation: in shares, " racing,' lotteries, rcstauratit-s, tea-houses; and' ivhatinot.">: -' .■' A situation such as that shown by Japan :o-day unqubstionably prMonts gravc'tUngorr" ! or world peace. The Japanese Governmont is.driven, to. launch out into-schemes of tor-; " ritonal aggrandisement. HSnancial pressure • it home has its corollary in the aggressive lojicies now; being maintained"in Maiichiiria ' in'd , Korea. We cannot forgot, that this i nation' is, and must be. for sonio years, faced 1 !iy one great t-omptotion. The history of tho i lyor.ld .has. rarely,... if, evor, shown a Power poor in money but strong, in fighting force ;oivtont to allow a rich and feeble neighbour-' ing' nation to ; go unplundered. ■ Japan ia ; poor,', but. a siiprome lighter. : China is rich, <•- jut has not vet developed her fighting force. Liow : long will Chinese territory remain un-' , ouehedlf