THE PRESS TUESDAY, DECEMBER 19, 1989. With and without work

Press, 19 December 1989, Page 12

THE PRESS TUESDAY, DECEMBER 19, 1989. With and without work

■.'Work; Today: Employment trends to 1989,” written ■by nesley Haines and published by the New Zealand Planning Council, is a sobering document. Although it concentrates on. the present day and on comparatively ; recent ' histdry, it makes a number of predictions, t about employment in New 19905. There is little to be optimistic I’; about. The- .study . ..sticks to ernpfoymeht and unemployment anddoesnot--ihfozsocial questions. But; the levels of have profound implications for and particularly for race issues Thus the questions that arise froni-the study are as disturbing as the study itself. •, Some of (the aspects will be impossible to change. Developments in the past have helped to determine the present position. For instance, during the 20 years to 1986, New Zealand’s labour force, that is the people who are in paid employment and those who are seeking paid employment, grew rapidly. This was the direct result of the baby boom of the 1950 s and 19605, and, because; of a rapid movement of women into paid work. The increase -ia the labour force is expected to slow, but unemployment is not expected to decrease until after 1992. Employment expanded in New Zealand in the last 20 years more rapidly than it did in many other developed countries; this did not continue into the late 1980 s.

One of the important aspects about the New Zealand labour force noted in the study is about education. About 44 per cent of people of working age have no school qualification. The study observes that perhaps this is not surprising because, until recently, the school system allowed only about 50 per cent of the candidates through the main national examination, School Certificate. Yet the writer notes that New Zealanders are still likely to leave school earlier than their counterparts in most countries within the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. Sixty per cent of New Zealanders have no tertiary qualifications. Again, this is a high figure compared with < other developed countries.

If such trends were to continue, the consequences would be disastrous. For one thing, the flow of investment might be inhibited. New Zealand has seemed a safe place for investment because it has a stable government and a reputation for a highly educated workforce. If the education of adults proves to be lower than that of most other developed countries, the country must seem less attractive to investors.

An even more serious consequence is that, without well-educated workers, New Zealand will fall behind in technological developments and productivity. New Zealand’s high standard of living in the past was largely the result of good prices and open markets for agricultural produce. It was not founded on an advanced educated workforce spread throughout the community.

Without the props of the past, New Zealand could slip into the status of a poor, undereducated country.

The Planning Council study also spells out the tragedy of Maori employment apd unemployment, and no immediate solution' is apparent. Again some of the trends have already been set'Tri the last 20 years, the Maori population - increased much more rapidly than the non-Maori population. Even in the 1980s;.this was apparent. Between 1981 and the study says, the Maori population increased by 5.2 per cent, wh|le the non-Maori population increased by 2.1 per cent.

The study estimates that the Maori population of working age will increase by about 35 per cent between 1986 and 1996, and the non-Maori working-age population will increase by about 6 per cent in the same period. Younger people are more likely to be unemployed and this means that a higher proportion of younger Maoris will be unemployed than young people in the population as a whole. Maori unemployment rates have been higher than non-Maori rates for at least 25 years. This has been attributable to a greater proportion of younger workers, workers with fewer educational qualifications, and the fact that many of the workers are in rural areas. At present about 40 per cent of the long-term unemployed are Maori people.

Developments in the type of work available will also make it more difficult for young Maoris without educational qualifications to be employed. Many Maori people are in manual occupations and between 1976 and 1986 there has been a marked shift from manual to non-manual work. Occupations which have continued to grow as a proportion of total employment are those in administration and management, professional and technical workers, service workers and, in the last two years, sales occupations. The proportion of self-employed people has also increased. Far fewer Maoris than non-Maoris are self-employed.

All of this adds up to a depressing outlook. The study seems to have been compiled with care and its findings need to be taken seriously. Increased education for both Maoris and non-Maoris is an obvious way of overcoming some of the problems the country will face. This will be a slow business; but the problems have to be tackled if New Zealand is not to slip further in its standard of living.

“Work Today” is not the Planning Council’s final word on the subject. It plans next year to publish an account of a sustainable, fully-employed, high-income society. It is already apparent that unless some major 1 deficiencies, particularly' insufficient education among Maoris, are repaired immediately, any Planning Council vision of what New Zealand could be will be utterly unachievable.