Sydenham poll gives Govt lead

Press, 25 September 1989, Page 1

Sydenham poll gives Govt lead

The Government has regained its lead over the breakaway New Labour Party in the crucial Sydenham electorate, according to a new opinion poll among Sydenham voters.

The Heylen poll, commissioned by “The Press,” shows that the New Labour Party is in third place, behind the New Zealand Labour Party and the National Party. This is a sharp reversal from another poll 4y 2 months ago, when the New Labour Party was shown as the highest-polling party in the electorate held by its leader, Mr Jim Anderton. The latest poll of a random sample of 300 eligible voters in Sydenham electorate was taken from September 16 to September 20.

Of those who expressed a preference, 45 per cent supported the Labour Party, 30 per cent supported National, 23 per cent supported the New Labour Party, 1 per cent supported the Democratic or Social Credit Party, and 1 per cent are listed as supporting “other” choices. The electors were asked: “If a General Election were held today, which political party would you vote for?” The proportion who replied “none/don’t know” has risen 8 percentage points to 36 per cent in the latest poll. The Heylen Research Centre said the maximum margin of sampling error was estimated at plus or minus 5.7 per cent at the

95 per cent confidence level. The May opinion poll, which was taken by Heylen for the “Holmes” television show, showed the New Labour Party at 41 per cent, National at 30 per cent, and Labour at 26 per cent. Although the Government has regained a lot of ground since May, with its support rising 19 percentage points in Sydenham, it is still well short of its 63 per cent following in the 1987 General Election.

National’s following has remained constant at 30 per cent in the General Election, the May poll, and the poll this month. The Sydenham electorate is important to the New Labour Party’s chances in 1990. It is the seat held by its leader, the party’s regional headquarters are based there, and it is one of four target seats named as winnable by Mr Anderton. Of those who support the New Labour Party in the latest poll, 55 per cent voted for Labour in the 1987 election. Former Labour supporters comprise less of the New Labour Party’s support than in the May poll, when 70 per cent of its support came from voters who had switched from Labour.

In the latest poll, 25 per cent of the remaining New Labour

Party supporters said they did not vote at the last election. This is 17 percentage points higher than the comparable figure in the May poll. The number of uncommitted voters in Sydenham is higher than the average level of uncommitted voters recorded in the nation-wide Heylen polls. The September nation-wide poll recorded 29 per cent uncommitted. The New Labour Party was officially launched in late April. Since the May poll in Sydenham, the party has held its national conference, and the Labour Government has undergone a leadership change. The Heylen Research Centre commented: “Subsequent Heylen polls have shown Labour closing the gap with. National, and on a nation-wide basis, support for the New Labour Party has declined from a high of 9 per cent in the May and July polls, to 2 per cent in the most recent “Eyewitness” Heylen Poll taken on September 1-3.”

It also said that in early May voter support for the New Labour Party was 41 per cent, mostly at Labour’s expense, but since then this support had largely eroded, with Labour having regained much of its former support.