THE PRESS SATURDAY, AUGUST 12, 1989. Pressure on National

Press, 12 August 1989, Page 22

THE PRESS SATURDAY, AUGUST 12, 1989. Pressure on National

The change to the leadership of the Labour Party has raised questions about the leadership of the National Party. The bitter struggle between the contenders for the presidency of National has been going on for months, but Labour’s change has given a sharper focus to the vote at the National Party conference this week-end. The party’s leader, Mr Bolger, will not be directly challenged in Dunedin, but the stage may be set there for such a move. The most obvious pressure for change brought about by Mr Palmer and Ms Clark heading the Labour Party is the emergence of the view that the National Party should change its leaders too. This tends to be an instinctive reaction and alone would not force events. However, other pressures are at work. One is the narrowing of the lead the National Party holds in the opinion surveys. Another is Mr Bolger’s poor position in the preferred Prime Minister stakes. He could survive such low ratings provided that the National Party’s ratings stay high. If both remain low, then Mr Bolger’s hold on his position will become more tenuous. There will also be intellectual pressure. Neither Mr Palmer nor Ms Clark will speak with the flair of Mr Lange, but the things they say will not lack substance.' Although it is possibly too early to be sure about the point, there is evidence that New Zealanders now expect substance in political and economic pronouncements from politicians. Recently Mr Bolger has shown more of a propensity to abuse and denigrate the Labour Government than to address the issues sharply and with detail and depth. National Party people might want an approach more in tune with the new attitudes towards politics. Yet an intellectual response may not be forthcoming. The front-runner to replace Mr Bolger must be Mr Peters, who while undeniably clever, is a populist. He is given to grand, sometimes extravagant, gestures. Perhaps he is in the Muldoon mould, able, as Sir Robert was able during the 1970 s and early 1980 s, to seize on the issues troubling people and turn them to political advantage, but he has not demonstrated Sir Robert’s

formidable brains and tactical skills. The time may have gone in New Zealand politics when it was possible to play the issues, without being convincing on the answers. Mr Peters is not highly regarded by his party, but for a long time neither was Sir Robert Muldoon. Never really accepted by many National people, Sir Robert was tolerated because he had the supreme advantage of winning elections. Although in rhetoric the National Party is the party of private enterprise, it is the ultimate pragmatic party, dominated by the desire to hold power, if it believes Mr Peters can deliver on that, then personal dislike will give way to the convenience of tolerance. Whoever leads it, the National Party is caught in a deep philosophical hole. Mr Peters offers a Muldoon-Keynesian-interventionist approach to economics. Ms Richardson offers something more extreme than Rogernomics. It is difficult to be convinced that either formula is a winning formula. The Peters and Richardson camps apparently are now dealing with one another, but it is difficult imagining them presenting together a credible alternative Government. In terms of caucus numbers they cannot do without one another; in policy it seems unbelievable that they could accommodate one another. The Caygill Budget, offering a moderate form of Rogernomics, seems close to what middle New Zealand wants at the moment. So where can the National Party go economically? That is one of the biggest challenges the Labour Party has set the National Party. Doing nothing is often the standard response of a conservative party. As a strategy for winning the election that may not work. In any case, there certainly is a mood in some sections of the National Party that it will not be handed the election on a plate. This more activist approach has centred on Mr Collinge. Perhaps the National Party will see its way through its difficulties in the clear air of Dunedin. At least delegates will be unable to complain that there are too few issues to grapple with.