Mrs Thatcher’s reshuffle

Press, 29 July 1989, Page 20

Mrs Thatcher’s reshuffle

Mrs Thatcher was never one to do things by halves. Even allowing for that, the scale of the British Cabinet reshuffle caught many by surprise and left observers scrambling for explanations. What, for instance, had Sir Geoffrey Howe, the Foreign Secretary, done to be prised out of his post, which was given to a comparatively junior Minister? Sir Geoffrey was made Deputy Prime Minister, and this appointment must indicate that Mrs Thatcher trusts him, because he will head the party and Government when she is out of the country. Yet it is not necessarily a step on the way to being Prime Minister. Sir Geoffrey’s successor at the Foreign Office appears to be being groomed for that position. Sir Geoffrey might be on the way out. The new Foreign Secretary, Mr John Major, is acknowledged to be one of the ablest Ministers in Mrs Thatcher’s Government. Yet lie has little foreign affairs experience. Whether Mrs Thatcher thinks that because of his inexperience she will be able to persuade him of the correctness of her own views on world affairs, and particularly on European affairs, remains to be seen. It is an intriguing prospect. Mrs Thatcher remains stoutly British, venturing so far as to tell the French, at the height of their celebrations of the 200th anniversary of the French Revolution, that it was not the revolution which set Europe on the path to human rights, but the Ancient Greeks who laid down the principles, principles which Britain eventually incorporated in the Magna Carta. Such a view of European history is certainly arguable; Mrs Thatcher did not choose the time or the place to win adherents to her view. Mrs Thatcher is generally inclined to the attitude that her views and the actions of her Government are right on most things but are misunderstood. Sir Geoffrey Howe has been more pro-European than Mrs Thatcher. How Mr Major will treat Europe will be one of the most watched pieces of political behaviour in the new Cabinet. The promotion of Mr Major, and its implications for the succession to the Conservative Party leadership, are the most dramatic aspects of the Cabinet reshuffle. Moving Mr Kenneth Baker from the education portfolio to head the Conservative Party Central Office had been widely expected. He is regarded as a superb communicator. However, Britain has undergone extensive education reform and Mr Baker, despite his communication skills,

appears to have left education in something of a mess. Many middle-class people are coming to the conclusion that the only sure way that they can get a good education for their children is to send them to schools for which they have to pay. But Mr Baker has demonstrated a capacity to derive short-term political advantage from situations and he might be the man to steer Mrs Thatcher towards yet another election victory. Mr Christopher Patten’s move to the environment portfolio is a clear response to the need for the Conservatives to project a more convincing attitude towards green issues. In the recent European elections the Green Party took 15 per cent of the vote. The environment seems certain to be a key to the next General Election in Britain. A recent opinion survey showed that people concerned about the environment were as likely to vote Conservative as to vote Labour. Mr Patten’s role thus is politically important. The plan to privatise water supplies is one of the main factors in making Mrs Thatcher’s Government unpopular. The European Commission is threatening to prosecute Britain if it does not impose adequate purity standards before privatisation. Mr Patten must persuade people that the privatised water they will drink will be safe, but at the same time he will be unable to dodge the general disapproval of the sale of water supplies. The expression most commonly used to describe the state of the Conservative Party is “mid-term blues.” Inflation and interest rates are riding high and industrial unrest growing. Many reforms are disliked. Labour is about 13 points ahead in opinion surveys; Mr Neil Kinnock, the Labour leader, is considered by those polled to be doing a better job than is Mrs Thatcher. The heavy defeat of the Conservatives in the European Parliamentary elections, Labour’s by-election wins, and the rising concern about the environment present additional threats to the Conservatives. The next British General Election is not due until 1992, and a win by Labour is far from sure; Mrs Thatcher hopes that her extensive reshuffle will turn the fortunes of the Conservative Party around. However, many British people believe that some of her policies are wrong. Simply changing those who pursue the policies is unlikely to make an important difference to the fortunes of the party.