South Westland

Press, 28 April 1989, Page 10

South Westland

Sir,—Alastair McArthur needs no lessons from me about setting up straw men. He originally claimed that soil conservationists misled the 1949 Royal Commission, in “just one of many cases of misleading information” and “constant propaganda” (March 7). Mr Cutler (March 16) replied that erosion was significant, and the map’s over-estimate only about 10 per cent. Mr McArthur continued to insist that natural pre-human erosion “put paid to the theory of ‘look at the mess we made,’ ” and he condemned those who still “push the manmade erosion theme” (March 28). Yet, now (April 17), he says he “did not say that no erosion was man-made.” His new complaint is merely that soil conservationists somehow “failed to change their tune.” Perhaps when he decides what he really means we could continue the

argument. I am surprised he • relies on scientific evidence, however. Many scientific conclusions are only likelihoods, not absolute certainties. His condemnation of conservationists’ optimistic statements about tourism show him to believe probabilities and trends to be very unreliable. What should we rely on instead?—Yours, etc., D. J. ROUND. April 19, 1989.