THE PRESS WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 28, 1988. Japan and the Soviet Union

Press, 28 December 1988, Page 12

THE PRESS WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 28, 1988. Japan and the Soviet Union

Japan and the Soviet Union appear ready to talk seriously about their relationship. They have an untidy piece of history to set right and as huge Powers and close neighbours, both seeking to influence events in the Pacific, they need to understand each other’s intentions. It is important for all the countries of the Pacific that Japan and the Soviet Union come to greater understanding. The untidy piece of history is that they have not signed a peace treaty after World War 11. But the issue which has primarily been responsible for them failing to conclude a peace agreement is also the issue that may restrain them from significant co-operation now.

The issue is four small islands lying north-east of Hokkaido, the large northern island of Japan. At the end of the war the Soviet Union occupied the islands and has refused to discuss returning them to Japan. Within Japan the islands are known as the Northern Territories. They have assumed a huge importance to Japan, to the extent that Japan has made their return a condition of any improvement in its relationship with the Soviet Union. The signing of a peace agreement and any Japanese commitment to the development of the Soviet Far East has been hinged on the return of the islands. To the Soviet Union, the islands have considerable strategic significance because they have a commanding position over the Sea of Okhotsk, a stretch of water which the Soviet Union tends to regard as an inland sea. The Soviet Union has been adamant that it will not give all four islands up. There have been recent signs that the Soviet Union is regarding the issue of the islands afresh. During August a former Prime Minister of Japan, Mr Yasuhiro Nakasone, visited Moscow, where he talked to the Soviet leader, Mr Gorbachev, for two hours and a half and discussed the subject of the four islands extensively. Mr Gorbachev gave no hint that the Soviet Union would return all four islands, but did say that the Soviet Union had once offered to return two of the four. He also said that “something, somehow,” had to be done about the issue. The momentum towards finding a solution was maintained by the visit in the last few days of the Soviet Foreign Minister, Mr Shevardnadze, to Japan. A joint Soviet-Japanese committee has been set up to study the issues that have prevented the two countries from signing a peace treaty. Although Mr Shevardnadze did not refer to the territorial dispute in the announcement about the setting up of the committee, the Soviet Union knows the issue has prime

importance for Japan. Although the Soviet Union clearly wants to improve its relationship with Japan, it probably has a series of issues to think through, not least of which is whether Soviet possession of the islands is of vital strategic significance. The territorial disputes within the Soviet Union involving Armenia and Azerbaijan will also make the Soviet Union unwilling to make any adjustments to borders for some time.

Japan is in no particular hurry to improve its relationship with the Soviet Union. One strand of argument is that Japan is less directly affected by the Soviet Union’s disarmament moves in Europe and does not need to fall into line with the general United States and European enthusiasm to improve relations with the Soviet Union. Much of Japan’s lack of enthusiasm arises out of fairly extensive dealings with the Soviet Union. Soviet warships patrol near Japan and Japanese aircraft are frequently scrambled because of the presence of Soviet military aircraft. Two-way trade between the Soviet Union and Japan amounted last year to more than SUSS billion. Japan has been investigating joint ventures with the Soviet Union but many Japanese business people have been unimpressed with what the Soviet Union has to offer. Much of the trade has been of steel and unsophisticated machinery from Japan in return for timber, aluminium, and gold from the Soviet Union. The trade is not as secure as the Soviet Union would like it to be because Japan’s demand for the raw materials the Soviet Union supplies may diminish. During 1987 there was a major row when it was discovered that Toshiba had supplied United States-based defence technology to the Soviet Union. Japanese banks have been unwilling to get too deeply involved with the Soviet Union because of the possibility that any Soviet bond issue in Tokyo might be open to criticism on the ground that the money raised might be used for military purposes.

Both Japan and the Soviet Union have said that they intend to play bigger roles in the Pacific. The establishment of the joint committee to look at the issues dividing them may not solve the territorial dispute immediately, but probably only good can come from the two countries dealing with one another in such a direct way. The change in the relationship is marked by the fact that they are prepared to deal with one another, despite their differences over the four islands.