Forecaster sees no drought relief

Press, 28 December 1988, Page 1

Forecaster sees no drought relief

By

GLEN PERKINSON

Tinder-dry Canterbury forests and scrub and parched farmland might not be relieved by significant rain until well into 1989, a Christchurch meteorologist says. Dr Neil Cherry said yesterday that from data compiled by the New Zealand Meteorological Service, Canterbury could expect little respite in the drought for at least three months.

The arid countryside might not even receive significant rain until May, he said.. The drought would not be broken until rain fell that was significantly greater than the level of evaporation. Just 299 mm of rain has fallen this year — with December recording a scant Hmm. In 1987 there was 580 mm of rain.

Dr Cherry said he was “hoping like hell” that the normal biennial variation in seasonal conditions would occur next year. Normally there is a dry year wi(h north-westerly winds in one year followed by wetter weather and southerly winds the next. It is called the quasi-biennial oscillation — nevertheless it was "a hope and not a forecast,” Dr Cherry said. Wet years could succeed wet and dry follow dry, he said. A 90 per cent chance existed that Canterbury’s summer would continue to be warm and dry, he said.

“There is no indication that this weather will change for the rest of the summer.”

Based on the Meteorological Service’s data Dr Cherry said there was a 40 per cent chance of significant — above average

—- rain in May. The chances of significant rain falling in April were nine to one against. Meanwhile, the service was predicting general rain tomorrow. Scattered showers are expected today. A tropical depression over the north of New Zealand should travel south, it said. However, Dr Cherry contended that depressions similar to the present one often drifted east rather than south, indicating no rain would fall here.

The Selwyn Plantation Board is praying for rain to reduce the risk of devastating fire flare-ups in the region’s forests. The seat of the big blaze in the Burgess plantation near Dunsandel that burned for days a fort-

night ago was still under observation. Hot spots are being dampened down daily and infra-red equipment is in use to detect high-risk areas. A total fire ban is now in force throughout Canterbury. In the city yesterday holidaymakers sweltered in 32deg. heat .— the third day this month temperatures exceeded 30deg. The hottest December day on record was in 1975 when the temperature reached 35deg. On December 12 this year temperatures reached 32.4 deg. The Press Association reports that the Minister of External Relations and Trade, Mr Moore, says South Islanders are tired of northerners’ lack of understanding of the drought crisis. People under the impression that the South Island was enjoying "fine and good” weather were mistaken. The weather was terrible, he said. “It would be an appropriate acknowledgement if broadcasters, airflight people and others stopped saying that the South is enjoying fine and good weather,” said the M.P. for Christchurch North. While spending Christmas up north, Mr Moore said he was appalled at the lack of understanding of the south’s problem. The East Coast floods galvanised public sympathy and the southern plight was no less terrible. "We are suffering our worst spell of weather in recorded history. The weather is not fine, it’s not good; it’s terrible,” he said.