Chile faces uphill struggle for democracy

Press, 8 October 1988, Page 10

Chile faces uphill struggle for democracy

NZPA-Reuter Washington The United States, heartened by a clean presidential plebiscite in Chile that was won by the opposition, yesterday expressed hope that the vote would mark the start of an irreversible return to democracy. A White House spokesman, Marlin Fitzwater, said Washington welcomed the plebiscite as part of a “democratic process and we hope it will be carried out peacefully and effectively over the next year.” American analysts, however, said the future of United States-Chilean relations would depend to a great extent on the outcome of the United States’ Presidential Election. At stake is how far the United States will go to aid the Chilean opposition in a tough struggle to push the military ruler, Augusto Pinochet, from power, the analysts said. Erik Weiss, a research associate of the Council on Hemispheric Affairs, said the Republican presidential candidate, George

Bush, would probably maintain a hands-off, friendly posture to Chile as long as it did not get involved in any openly repressive tactics.

Mr Bush would allow General Pinochet to manipulate the existing situation to his advantage, Mr Weiss said. The Democratic candidate, Michael Dukakis, would be more critical, putting pressure on Chile to break from its present constitutional framework and adopt true democratic reforms, Mr Weiss said.

Senator Edward Kennedy said the plebiscite showed the Chilean people had chosen democracy rather than the dictatorship of General Pinochet, aged 72, who seized power in a 1973 military coup.

"It is still a long road back,” he said. “Every friend of Chile hopes that the long-awaited transition will take place peacefully and that the military dictatorship will abide by its commitment to accept the return to democracy.” Peter Bell, vice-chair-man of the Inter-Ameri-can Dialogue, said:

“There is not a lot of precedent in the world for the opposition winning a plebiscite against a dictator.”

General Pinochet and the Armed Forces are still far from losing controlling power in Chile, largely due to the provisions of the 1980 Constitution under which Wednesday’s plebiscite was held. “It can be expected that Pinochet will insist on strict adherence to the 1980 Constitution,” Mr Bell said. General Pinochet was the sole candidate in the plebiscite, seeking voter approval for an eight-year extension of his Presidential term, but voters opted for the one and only alternative — multi-candi-date Presidential Elections to be held in December, 1989. “The problem now is that the victory was achieved within the context of a Constitution which is not a vehicle for a return to democracy, as we know it,” Mr Bell said. Under the Constitution, General Pinochet would continue as President until March, 1990, could retain his post as Army

commander and would become a senator for life along with other militarj' leaders.

It empowers the National Security Council, formed by members of the Armed Forces, to intervene at times of crisis, effectively restoring authoritarian rule, Mr Bell said.

Susan Kaufman Purcell, director of the Latin American programme at the Council on Foreign Relations, said the opposition victory was decisive and would probably force the military to negotiate. The 16-party Command for the No, the opposition front, has already called for negotiations to speed up the transfer of power and is expected to seek changes in the Constitution.

“It’s going to be hard for Chileans to tolerate Pinochet for another year and a half,” Ms Purcell said. She said General Pinochet’s defeat also could lead other sectors of the Armed Forces, particularly those that had opposed his candidacy, to distance themselves from him.