Surprise in Pakistan

Press, 2 June 1988, Page 12

Surprise in Pakistan

General Zia ul-Haq, President of Pakistan, plainly has an addict’s taste for power. He overthrew a democratically elected Government in 1977 on the pretext of shoring up democracy, but has never found the time or the inclination to carry out his aim. Even now, 11 years on, his taste for power appears unsatiated. A widely accepted interpretation of his recent dismissal of his own Prime Minister is that he wants to hold on to power into the 19905. General Zia plans elections in 90 days, but neither of the two Opposition parties, the Pakistan People’s Party and the nine-party Movement for the Restoration of Democracy, says it is prepared to contest an election supervised by him. That leaves the ruling Pakistan Muslim League in the field. That party is pliant, dominated by the general. But he has attacked it; he has ordered an investigation into the financial affairs of some of its members and has accused its leader, the recently dismissed Prime Minister, Mr Junejo, of corrupting and bankrupting the nation. This, together with an Opposition boycott, would mean the election of few candidates able to oppose a rampant General Zia. (

That may be the way he wants it. President Zia has said that he will appoint a caretaker Government. Judging by General Zia’s past expressions of intention and his reluctance to match them by deeds, Pakistan’s new caretaker Government may be around for some time in one form or another. The possibility also exists that President Zia will have trouble forming a caretaker Government. In that case, even more power would fall to him. The most significant recent change in Pakistan’s circumstances has been the withdrawal of Soviet troops from Afghanistan

and it seems highly probable that President Zia’s moves are in some way connected with what is happening in that country, Pakistan’s neighbour. Because Pakistan is host to about 3 million refugees from Afghanistan, the Soviet withdrawal raises new questions about the future of Pakistan and of the refugees. Thus there is considerable uncertainty in the region. Last year there was a great deal of violence of ethnic origin, mainly between Pathans from the north-west Frontier Province and Karachi’s dominant Muhajirs, Urdu speakers from India who moved to Pakistan after Partition in 1947. Tension was reported to have developed between President Zia and Mr Junejo over riots in Karachi. President Zia might expect more violence and consider that only a Government wholly under his authority will be capable of dealing with it. Pathans live on both sides of the Pakistan-Afghanistan border and tribal loyalties are strong. The British divided the area in 1893 but the Afghanis have never acknowledged the dividing line. About 15 million Pathans live in Afghanistan and there are more than that in Pakistan. Some are committed to the establishment of a new state called Pakhtunistan. To annoy the Pakistanis,' the Afghanis occasionally encourage this secessionist agitation. Pakistan has been retaliating by backing the Afghan rebels, a ploy used even before the Soviet invasion. Recently, some of the demands for an independent Pakhtunistan have died away, but now that the Soviet troops are going home, the idea may be revived. If that happens, there is bound to be more violence. President Zia may think that he should be free to deal with it in any way he wishes, untrammelled by the trappings of party and democratic aspirations.