THE PRESS TUESDAY, 26 APRIL, 1988.. Too many people

Press, 26 April 1988, Page 16

THE PRESS TUESDAY, 26 APRIL, 1988.. Too many people

111 I The announcement that there are .now. 5.1 . billion [I people inhabiting i the Earth! is’ disturbing. l 'Even; more alarming; is .the rapidity : with which the world will [add another billioi people. According to United Nations meat urements andj estimates, i the worldty population in 1800 was about 1 billion and it' took! |oughly 130 years for that to double! In only -33 years, from 1927 Until v 1960, [the word reached its third billion, >and in a mere I|4 more years reached the fourth billion;!- Now, 13 iyears later, the population has hit- the 5 oillion mark. The forecasts [are: 6 billion! peop e in 7 billion, in 2010, : and 8 billtyn in 2p22.[ ty ' | I I' ' J • Last, yehr I the world’s population, increased by about &0 million, which is more than [the present population of Mexico! (82 million) but' r ot as much as the population of Pakistan (101.6 [million). Of the 5 billion, about half are Under 24 years of age;and about a [third are under the! age of 15 years. Those; figures are particularly important becahse of the increasing concern about the large! number of adolescents in develdping countries who become pregnant. For example, the U.N. estimates that, at the ipresent rate of child-bearing among teenagers, 748 births will occur among every 1000 African women by the time they reach the age of 20. This contrasts greatly with the child-bearing, rates in North America (153 in every 1000) and! Europe (197 in every 1000). In [East Aria ; the fertility rate among teenagers may [be very ; low indeed, China, Japan land South Korea averaging 45. In certain- ■ ccuntries, Bangladesh, Nepal, Pak stan, Jo-dan, and Syria, the fertility rate among iteenc ger? is as high as 791 for every 1000 wome i. In many countries various taboos! prevent the use of contraception amojng teenagers and, in any event,-medical advice is often unavailable. • An eventual stabilising of the world's population Mas been predicted, although the estimates of| its size vary from 7.5 billion to 14.2 I billion!. This is expected to occur about the beginning of the twenty-second century. j ; _ I I ' ; ! How many ’ people the world ; can accommodate is a much debated question, but.[it is ludicrous[ to deny that the world’s resources are stretched now, particularly in some areas!; further increases! will stretch . them further. In many parts of the world, population pressures have far outstripped medical resources; Ithey strain the capacity of

,1.1 .'[.l [l ! Ity communities to proyice education and the capac ty of industries arid governments to provice work or housing, and in some areas the ability of the! land 1 to provide food. The world’s | resources have long been showiig the strain put [upon them by human dehiarids: forestslare being depleted, climatic exitrei|nes and human pressures have v combined to create unproductive wasteland; efforts to raise agricultural optput, and the destruction of forests, have led to| the damaging of rivers [and [lakes that were the source of fish supplies fflore people want to, or must, live in towns arid cities. By the[year 2010,[ it is estimated that half the world’s population will be ini urban areas. [This concentration alone 1 puts! tremendous demands on local water supplies, or on engineering resources to carry’ water to meet demand. ■lllj I i I I' ■ Some parts of the world still have tremendous capacity to. produce more food. In fact, agricultural Technology and the output of farms in some! places far exceeds the demand for food. The problem is that these surpluses, or potential surpluses, are not [apparent where the great population growths are occurring. People hunger on one continent; farms are suit; down or are worked below capacity on ariither. Even if the distribution of food! were by some miracle of economic management, corrected and people did [not starve, other [factors crucial!, to a decent standard of living would not be available. A change of attitude towards childbearing is needed in certain countries, and with it will run a change in the roles of women in the community. In many impoverished countries.[ women are already ■ pare of the workforce, eyen the main part of it. Often however, they [have! little choice of occupations. [ | Whatever course is taken to achieve population limits, no-bne can pretend that the > measures will fall short of being drastic. The political, legal, religious, and educational changes that are ; required are [all of momentous significance.; No great change can be expected where (governments are weak or diverted away from the critical question. Sad to Isay, many 'countries that should be [concentrating oh their [ population problems haye their attention ,on other matters, including international rivalries; and ambitions, and on.economic programmes that will .be defeated by [ population growth.