Future energy consumption

Press, 17 October 1987, Page 6

Future energy consumption

Wellington reporter Energy consumption in New Zealand is predicted to rise 1.8 per cent a year until the end of the century, according to briefing papers prepared by the Ministry of Energy. Energy use of 345 petajoules (PJ) in 1986 would rise to 460 petajoules by 2000 if present economic

trends continued. Electricity, at 88 PJ, provided 25 per cent of power In 1986 and this was expected to rise 2.5 per cent a year until it represented 27 per cent of the power by 2000, the papers said. Gas, at 62 PJ, provided 18 per cent of power in 1986 and was expected to rise 3 per cent annually

until it represented 20 per cent of power by 2000.

Coal, at 31 PJ, provided 10 per cent of power in 1986 and was expected by the papers to rise between 2 and 3 per cent a year (excluding coal exports) to 63 PJ by 2000. But the forecast market share for coal in the future was uncertain.

' Oil, at 155 PJ, provided 45 per cent of energy in 1986 and could increase annually about 1 per cent to 188 PJ by 2000. That would represent a decline in oil’s over-all share of the energy market to 40 per cent. Geothermal energy use represented about 6 PJ and this could rise to 8 PJ by 2000, the briefing papers said.

Household demand for energy could grow 2.1 per cent a year, from 41 PJ in 1986 to 47 PJ by 2000.

A critical factor influencing demand would be the extent of future rises in electricity prices, the papers said.

Industrial and commercial demand was 172 PJ with big industries (petrochemicals, basic metals, coal exports, pulp and paper) accounting for 68 PJ. Growth in energy demand in this sector would be variable.

Transport demand accounted for 152 PJ in the March, 1987, year and could increase to 175 PJ by 2000. The papers said the consumption of petrol and petrol substitutes could increase from 89 PJ to 100 PJ by 2000.