Timaru man experiences ‘tangled web of Lebanon’

Press, 22 August 1987, Page 1

Timaru man experiences ‘tangled web of Lebanon’

By

CHRIS MOORE

Western hostages held in Lebanon are likely to remain captives of a highly volatile political and military situation, a specialist in Middle Eastern affairs, Dr Bill Harris, said in Christchurch yesterday. The Timaru-born political scientist is one of a small number of New Zealanders still living in Lebanon. His home in East Beirut is on the frontline of the civil war which has devastated the city. He has wide contacts throughout Lebanon — and first-hand experience of the paranoia and random outbreaks of hostility which continue to sweep the country. Yesterday Dr Harris discussed the tangled web of Lebanese politics, and expressed his pessimism about an early release for the captives held by the country’s various factions. “I think that these people will be held in the fridge for a long time. I don’t see any prospect for their early release. Some captives might be freed when individual countries take individual action to release them. It’s very difficult to see the heat going off the French and the Americans. Their confrontation’ with Iran is unlikely to result in a captive release in the medium term.”

Among the hostages is the Archbishop of Canterbury’s personal envoy, Terry Waite, who disappeared in Beirut earlier this year. Although no definite news about his location has been available, Dr Harris believes that he is alive somewhere in the city’s

southern sector. “There have been stories that he was taken to Iran. But the general feeling is that Mr Waite and the other captives are housed somewhere in the southern suburbs. Terry Waite would be a very valuable hostage. I’m amazed that he presented himself to them. After dismissing his Druze guards, he simply walked into his captors hands, an action which is difficult to understand."

The i Byzantine structure of Lebanese politics is hard for Westerners to appreciate. Dr Harris describes the region as one of a series of volcano craters in the Middle East which could erupt at any time.

The civil war in the Lebanese mountains had shattered the traditional links between the Druze and Maronite Catholic communities.

“The war has now assumed the dimensions of a civil conflict. Up until then it had largely been a large Israeli, Palestinian and Syrian component in the Beirut arena.

“The war in the mountains caused several times the physical damage caused during the Israeli invasion; 150,000 Christians left their homes in one area. From a 50:50 Druze-Christian area, it is now a completely Druze-domin-ated region, while the Druze leaders refuse to have any contact with the Lebanese President. Communications have been completely broken.” Despite American protestations that Lebanon was considered strategically insignificant, the region continued to be an important factor in the American entanglement with Iran. “It was behind Irangate and the confrontation in the Gulf. It’s as plain as day that while the Americans may dismiss Lebanon, it remains one of the central factors in propelling their involvement in the whole area.” Dr Harris believes that 1988 — the year set down for the changeover of the Lebanese President — will be a year of change for Lebanon. “The Syrians are looking to this as an opportunity to establish some sort of decisive footing in the Christian sector of Beirut. The Israelis will obviously have something to say about that.

“As this transition comes closer there is a new element involving Syria and Israel. 1988 could be a very dynamic 12 months in Lebanon, given the collapse of the economy and other factors. The stage is as much set for some sort of breakage as it was in 1982.

“Lebanon could resurface dramatically in the international arena and not simply over the question of hostages. Nothing has been settled since 1982. All the conflicts are present. Nothing has moved.” Life and work for a Western resident in Beirut continued to be overshadowed by the conflict. Dr Harris, a pragmatic bjew Zealander, describes the atmosphere as “livable” but a lifestyle with daily difficulties. “The telephone system has collapsed — you have to dial for an hour before you reach someone. The electricity is cut regularly. The voltage is reduced. Benzine is becoming difficult to obtain because the Government refuses to remove the subsidies.

“There are massive shortages at the petrol station. The Government has been paralysed following the collapse of the tripartite agreement. It will not meet to discuss these questions. “Central institutions are not functioning and the situation just carries on.”

The French and American involvement in the Persian Gulf had caused a “scare” among a small number of Western residents remaining in the sector.