Slight swing to Labour detected in Auckland

Press, 4 August 1987, Page 3

Slight swing to Labour detected in Auckland

Voters in the Auckland province have swung towards Labour, according to a survey of the province’s 10 most marginal seats.

But the "New Zealand Herald’’-National Research Bureau poll showed that, while there is evidence of a swing in Labour’s favour, the balance is still very even.

The 20 per cent of uncommitted voters will determine which way the seats will fall in this group of electorates, which range from Pakuranga, held by the Democrats with a majority of 172, to Waikaremoana (National, 1737), in the 1984 election. The other seats in the group are Birkenhead (National, majority 1717), East Cape (Labour, 755), Glenfield (Labour, 809), Hamilton East (Labour, 1100), Hamilton West (Labour, 803), Papakura (National, 1477), Rotorua (National, 811), and Waikato (National, 1658). The novel all-elector-ates poll took place between July 15 and 17, with a sample of 30 eligible voters selected at

random from each of the 93 general electorates. Interviews were by telephone, from a sample of eligible voters randomly selected from the latest published electoral rolls available on July 10. The maximum statistical sampling error, with 10 electorates, was plus or minus 5.7 per cent. Voters were asked: “If an election had been held yesterday, which party, if any, would you have voted for?” Tabulated answers, compared with the results of the 1984 General Election, were: MARGINAL NORTHERN NORTH ISLAND SEATS

(Didn’t Vote) 20 8 Taking only the subsample of uncommitted voters, present party shares, compared with 19® - election results, we?#

MARGINAL NORTHERN NORTH ISLAND SEATS 1984

While the 6 per cent lead National held over Labour in these 10 seats at the last election has reversed to a 3 per cent lead to Labour, the edge Labour holds over National was not statistically significant to say Labour had achieved a majority. The 20 per cent of uncommitted voters were also asked: “If an election were held yesterday, which party would you have been leaning towards?” Results were: Uncommitted voters total Leaning towards % Labour 36 National 20 Democratic 3 N.Z. Party — Others — Refused 2 Don’t know 41 If these leanings translated into votjjag action, the party preference

would be Labour 50 per cent, National 45 per cent, and Democrats 5 per cent. The poll disclosed the following voter switching patterns: • Of 1984 Labour voters, 72 per cent would remain loyal, 14 per cent were uncommitted, 11 per cent would switch to National, and 3 per cent would switch to the Democrats. • Of 1984 National voters, 73 per cent would remain loyal, 15 per cent were uncommitted, 11 per cent would switch to Labour, and 1 per cent would switch to the Democrats.

The survey also asked: “Has (Labour/National) done something this year that has impressed you favourably in any of the following policy areas?” Results were:

Copyright 1987—The “New Zealand Herald"

1984 Party Poll Election % % Labour 39 34 National 37 38 Democrat 4 8 N.Z. Party — 12 Others —— — Uncommitted

Party Poll Election % % Labour 49 36 National 46 42 Democrat 5 9 N.Z. Party — 13 Others — —

National Labour has has POLICIES % % Employment 15 17 Defence 40 30 Economic 41 19 Law and order 25 38 Education 18 31