Voting support for big parties creeps closer

Press, 28 July 1987, Page 3

Voting support for big parties creeps closer

• The major political parties may now be closer in countrywide popular support than some recent samplings have suggested. • Yet Labour would still have led National by 10 points or more had an election been held less than a fortnight ago.

• Both the present Government and Opposition would have fared better than they did at

the 1984 election, despite evidence that about one voter in five is still undecided, or will not disclose a party preference.

• Even National has improved its 1984 level of support, though not nearly as markedly as Labour, mainly because of the collapse of the New Zealand Party vote arid, to a lesser extent, the Democratic (or former Social Credit) following.

Above are the main findings of the latest “New Zealand Herald” National Research Bureau poll — this time, a novel, all-electorates survey. As far as the bureau knows, it is the first allelectorates poll conducted in New Zealand, and possibly the first of that kind anywhere in the world. Polling took place between July 15 — not particularly propitious timing for the Government, since unprecedented consumer price inflation had been disclosed only the previous day — and July 17. The total sample was 2790 eligible voters and the maximum statistical sampling error was plus or minus 1.9 per cent, significantly lower than in most other such surveys. A sample of 30 eligible voters from each of the nation’s 93 general electorates was randomly selected from the latest published electoral rolls available on July 10. Pollsters reached respondents and interviewed them by telephone. They asked: “If an election had been held yesterday, which party, if any, would you have voted for?” Tabulated answers, compared with the results of the 1984 general election, were:

(did not vote) Taking only the subsample of committed voters, current party shares, compared with 1984 election results, were:

Other 0.3 1.3 The lead of 7 percent-

age points that Labour held over National at the last General Election has therefore since climbed to 11.7 points in the allelectorates poll. Much has been made, in some quarters, of the uncommitted element evident in most recent surveys.

But fewer than half of all electors in the socalled uncommitted segment lack leanings; and some, who have no doubt for which party they would have voted, are “won’t says,” not “don’t knows.”

Of all the eligible voters the “Herald”-NRB survey polled, 20.2 per cent were non-committal on a definite party preference.

So we asked them: “If an election had been held yesterday, which party would you have been leaning towards?”

It seems that this residual pool of voters is more

likely to boost. Labour’s than National’s share of the over-all vote.

For, although half of the subsample was not prepared to indicate which way its political preference had been falling, the rest were gravitating towards Labour and National in the ratio of three-to-two, respectively: Uncommitted voters Total leaning towards % Labour 30.2 National 17.1 Democrat 2.0 N.Z. Party 0.4 Others 1.0 Refused 2.0 Don’t know 47.3

The survey disclosed the following voter switching patterns:

• Of 1984 Labour voters, 78 per cent would remain loyal; 14 per cent are uncommitted; seven per cent would switch to National; and one per cent would switch to Democrats. • Of 1984 National

voters, 77 per cent would remain loyal; 13 per cent are uncommitted; and 10 per cent would switch to Labour.

• Of 1984 New Zealand Party voters, 45 per cent would switch to Labour; 33 per cent would switch to National; 18 per cent are uncommitted; three per cent would remain loyal; and one per cent would switch to the Democrats. • Of 1984 Social Credit voters, 30 per cent would remain loyal; 26 per cent would switch to Labour; 23 per cent are uncommitted; and 21 per cent would switch to National.

• Of those ineligible to vote in 1984, but who have since qualified as new voters, 47 per cent would vote Labour; 31 per cent are uncommitted; and 22 per cent would vote National. And what of electors’ attitudes to party performance and policies? Labour is favoured for its economic policies and defence policies, in that order.

The Opposition has impressed voters more than the Government has on law-and-order policies; education policies and employment policies, again in that order. Nothing, however, approaches the margin of almost two-to-one registered by Labour’s economic policies, particularly among men and among those aged 25 to 34. The survey asked: “Has (Labour/National) done something this year that has impressed you favourably in any of the following policy areas?” Responses were: Labour National

Copyright 1987 — "New Zealand Herald” TOMORROW: Focus on 10 most marginal Labour seats.

Poll 1984 elect. Party % % Labour 43.0 39.3 National 33.6 32.8 Democrat 2.7 7.0 N.Z. Party 0.3 11.2 Other 0.2 1.1 Uncommitted 20.2 8.6

Poll 1984 elect. Party % % Labour 53.9 42.9 National 42.2 35.9 Democrat 3.4 7.6 N.Z. Party 0.4 12.3

Policies has % has % Employment 15 17 Defence 39 31 Economic 41 22 Law, order 26 36 Education 23 30