Parties conscious of farmer influence

Press, 22 May 1987, Page 10

Parties conscious of farmer influence

By

OLIVER RIDDELL

in

Wellington

Although farmers may no longer be dominant in the electorates in which they vote, their influence may still be decisive and for this reason both Labour and National are aware of the importance of farmers in the General Election this year. The two most marginal electorates in the South Island are Waitaki and Rangiora, and it is no coincidence that these two have so much in common. Both contain towns almost entirely dependent on rural servicing as well as farmers thinly scattered over wide areas. Waitaki is based around Oamaru, Waimate, Geraldine and Temuka, with smaller centres such as Orari, Winchester, Wes-

ton, Tekapo, Twizel and Omarama. Rangiora is based around Kaikoura, Rangiora and Kaiapoi, with many smaller centres such as Oxford, Cheviot, Amberley, Waipara, Hawarden and Hanmer Springs. Not only will the farmer be decisively important in who wins these two electorates, but farm servicing industries in business and personal touch with farmers will be important too.

Then there is the exNew Zealand Party factor. Many farmers left National and voted New Zealand Party in 1984. This cost National the Waitaki electorate and almost cost it Rangiora. If this vote drains back into National’s catchment, then both seats will go

National this time. A similar situation will affect many North Island marginals too — Tongariro, East Cape, Gisborne, Hawke’s Bay, Wairarapa and Horowhenua. Like Waitaki and Rangiora, these electorates have a strong horticultural as well as pastoral fanner component. Having all these eight electorates go to National, plus the two new seats outside Auckland, would be enough to change the Government. In each of the eight the vote of a few hundred farmers would swing it one way or the other.

Farmers may not have the numbers or the clout they used to have, but there is no doubt a bloc vote by farmers can still change Governments.