Gap between Labour and National widens

Press, 13 May 1987, Page 2

Gap between Labour and National widens

By

OLIVER RIDDELL

in Wellington

The gap between Labour and National in recent opinion polls is widening in Labour’s favour, according to the authoritative M.R.L. poll for Radio New Zealand and the “National Business Review.”

A pilot poll of 2500 people on March 28 had shown Labour at 38.9 per cent support compared with National’s 38.6 per cent, with 22.5 per cent undecided or planning not to vote.

Another poll of the same 2500 people on May 2 showed support for Labour at 41.5 per cent and for National at 37.9 per cent, with 10.4 per cent undecided and 5.2 per cent planning not to vote (a total of 15.6 per cent).

This poll cannot really be compared with other polls because it includes the undecided voters in its

100 per cent, while the others make percentages out of party support only.

It differs from other polls too in that it finds virtually no difference in the support of women and men for National and Labour, while the other polls show women supporting National more than Labour and men supporting Labour more than National. The real interest in the M.R.L. poll, however, is in its regional breakdown of party support. This shows an astonishing variation in party support between the regions, certainly greater than in the 1984 General Election. In Otago/Southland, Labour led by 43.1' per cent to 40.6 per cent. This suggests National may have trouble holding onto the marginal Invercargill seat now that Mr Norman Jones is retiring.

In the northern South Island (including Christchurch), Labour led by

. 43.5 per cent to 34.6 per cent This suggests Labour may be able to hold onto its highly marginal Waitaki seat . while putting under severe, threat the National-held electorates of Fendalton, Rangiora and Timaru. The greater support in Christchurch threatens the blue-ribbon seat of Fendalton while the very small margin by which National holds Rangiora makes it vulnerable too. In Wellington, Labour is ahead by 50.7 per cent 1 to 28.2 per cent This startling result must make the Labour-held marginals of Horowhenua, Kapiti, Ohariu, Miramar and Wellington Central reasonably safe. How accurately it can be applied to the highly marginal rural seat of Wairarapa is open to doubt. In the northern North Island (excluding Auckland) National is in front by 45.5 per cent to 36.4 per cent. This means the

Labour-held marginals of Hamilton West, Hamilton East and Tongariro are in trouble, and maybe East Cape and Gisborne too. In greater Auckland, Labour is ahead by 39.3 per cent to 38.2 per cent This is worrying for the Government because the marginal seats of West Auckland, Glenfield and Eden are under threat while - National should pick up at least Pakuranga from the Democrats and maybe East Coast Bays. - ft. One region the polls does not identify is the East Coast North Island. Labour holds five potentially marginal seats there —- East Cape, Gisborne, Hawke’s Bay, Hastings and Wairarapa. The M.R.L. poll confirms in direction what other public opinion polls, and private polling by the parties, have been showing. Its extra relevance comes from its capacity to be more specific.