‘Uncommitted voters for Sir Robert’

Press, 4 April 1987, Page 3

‘Uncommitted voters for Sir Robert’

By

OLIVER RIDDELL

in Wellington Part of the potential threat Sir Robert Muldoon poses to the present leadership of the National Party lies in his ability to attract uncommitted or non-National voters. So successful is he in this that he poses a real threat to Labour as well as his own leadership, .which reinforces his threat to that leadership. The March “Eye Wit-ness”-Heylen public opinion poll put Sir Robert at more than twice the popularity of the Leader of the Opposition, Mr Bolger, in the preferred Prime Minister stakes — at 19 and 8 per cent, respectively. Details of how this popularity was made up will not be available for a week. In the February poll, which unlike the March poll had National five points ahead of Labour instead of four behind, Sir Robert at 18 per cent was exactly twice as popular as Mr Bolger at 9 per cent. Of the 165 uncommitted voters out of 933 respondents in the February poll, Sir Robert was preferred by 9.5 per cent and Mr Bolger by 2.4 per cent. This gave Sir Robert almost four times the voter-

pulling power of Mr Bolger among uncommitted voters. The poll also identified those who switched parties in February. Of those who switched to National, 30.1 per cent preferred Sir Robert as Prime Minister. Mr Bolger was preferred by 18.8 per cent Of those who had switched from National, 14.2 per cent still preferred Sir Robert while only 2.7 per cent preferred Mr Bolger. But Sir Robert poses a threat to Labour as well as to Mr Bolger. Of those who switched from Labour, 17.4 per cent preferred Sir Robert and 9.3 per cent preferred Mr Bolger, while 18.4 per cent preferred Mr Lange even though they were switching from Labour. The proportion of preferences for Sir Robert and Mr Bolger were fairly consistent in February with the earlier December and January polls, which had had Labour in front of National. With Labour back in front again in the March poll, and Sir Robert further ahead in the preferred Prime Minister stakes than before, there is no reason to expect that Mr Bolger’s popularity has increased.