Income fall forecast

Press, 13 March 1987, Page 18

Income fall forecast

Wellington reporter

Arable fanners’ incomes are predicted to fall by 9 per cent during 1986-87, according to the Minister of Agriculture, Mr Moyle.

His Ministry had based this forecast on the model of a South Island mixed cropping and fattening unit, which was representative of arable farms.

Based on that model, about 40 per cent of gross arable income had been earned from wheat production.

He said that individual intensive cropping farms normally derived about 75 per cent of their income from cropping with the remainder being obtained from pastoral production. Therefore, the wheat enterprise was contributing about 30 per cent of gross farm income.

However, that contribution could range from zero to a maximum of about 60 per cent, Mr Moyle said.

There was still considerable uncertainty about the average of wheat prices during 1986-87, although his advisers had suggested that prices could fall by about 30 per cent from the national average price in 1985-86. Based on that price movement and a 30 per cent contribution by wheat to gross farm income, the impact would be a fall in arable farmers’ gross farm incomes of 9 per cent, he said.