Labour Party doubles lead
Labour’s lead over National doubled to six percentage points between early December and mid-February. The change resulted from a gain of one point by Labour and a slip of two points by National.
In the latest “New Zealand Herald”National Research Bureau survey, Labour is now the choice of 50 per cent of committed voters and National is the choice of 44 per cent.
In six polls from October, 1985, Labour’s margins over National have been 10, 12, one, five, three and now six percentage points.
Seven months before the 1984 election, Labour had a three-point lead over National.
Support for the Democratic Party has risen one point to 4 per cent. The New Zealand Party continues to show 1 per cent support. In the February poll, 23 per cent of eligible voters were uncommitted, as
Of eligible voters, 23 per cent were uncommitted (that is, they said they would not vote, or did not know, or refused to say which party they would vote for), as compared with 18 per cent in December and a 9 per cent non-vote in the July, 1984, election. The poll figures are subject to a maximum statistical sampling error of plus or minus 2 per cent. Labour has lost 29 per cent of its 1984 voters, most of them (19 per cent) saying they were uncommitted. National has lost 18 per cent of its 1984 voters, with 10 per cent uncommitted. The February switching patterns (with December figures in brackets) are: Of 1984 Labour voters: 71 per cent would remain loyal (69 per cent), 19 per cent are uncommitted (19 per cent), 8 per cent would switch to National (10 per cent), 1 per cent would switch to the Democrats (1 per cent), 1 per cent would switch to the New Zealand Party (1 per cent).
compared with 18 per cent in December.
The interval between the December and February polls included much controversy about a proposed Maori loan and about payments to gangs. National’s Extax proposal was discussed; party leaders issued state-of-the-nation assessments; and just as the poll began, the Leader of the Opposition, Mr Bolger, launched an advertising and publicity campaign in preparation for the election.
The poll was held between February 13 and 17. It covered 2000 eligible voters selected by random probability methods from the 20 main population centres. Interviews were face-to-face.
People were asked: “If an election had been held yesterday, which party would you have voted for?” The answers of intending voters were compared with those in previous polls and with the vote in the July, 1984, election:
Of 1984 National voters: 82 per cent would remain loyal (81 per cent), 10 per cent are uncommitted (8 per cent), 8 per cent would switch to Labour (11 per cent).
Of 1984 New Zealand Party voters: 50 per cent would switch to Labour (43 per cent), 25 per cent would switch to National (28 per cent), 20 per cent are uncommitted (20 per cent), 3 per cent would remain loyal (7 per cent), 1 per cent would switch to the Democrats (1 per cent), 1 per cent would switch to “all others” (1 per cent). Of 1984 Social Credit voters: 31 per cent are uncommitted (20 per cent), 30 per cent would remain loyal (29 per cent), 23 per cent would switch to Labour (27 per cent), 16 per cent would switch to National (20 per cent). The switching of votes leaves the four parties — and the uncommitted group — with support derived as follows: Present support for . . .
Feb 87 % Dec 86 % Sep 86 % July 86 % Mar 86 % Oct 85 % Jun 85 % Feb 85 % Dec 84 % July Oct Elec84 % tion % Labour 50 49 50 48 52 50 41 44 44 48 43 National 44 46 45 47 40 40 43 4’2 39 33 36 Democratic Party 4 3 3 3 4 5 6 5 6 6 8 N.Z. Party 1 1 1 1 3 4 10 8 10 13 12 All others 1 1 1 1 1 1 — 1 1 — 1
Labour National N.Z. Party Democratic Party Uncommitted Comes from % % % % % 84 Labour voters 65 9 38 13 29 84 National voters 6 69 8 4 12 84 N.Z. Party voters 13 7 23 2 9 84 Social Credit voters 84 All other 4 3 — 70 9 voters 1 1 — — 1 Non-voters in 84 3 4 7 4 23 Newly eligible voters 8 7 24 7 17 Copyright, 1987 — ‘‘New Zealand Herald” TOMORROW: Voters give their choices for Prime Minister.
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Press, 5 March 1987, Page 7
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753Labour Party doubles lead Press, 5 March 1987, Page 7
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