THE PRESS WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 21, 1987. Ignoring a dreadful war

Press, 21 January 1987, Page 14

THE PRESS WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 21, 1987. Ignoring a dreadful war

Suppose two European countries — say, Portugal and Spain — had been at war for more than six years. Suppose, too, that casualties on both sides numbered hundreds of thousands; that both economies were shattered; that shipping from other countries was likely to be attacked by either side if it ventured near; and that success continued to be measured by advances of a few kilometres, or even a few metres. Surely the outcry in the rest of the world, and the pressures for a settlement, would become enormous.

Why, then, the amazing indifference from much of the rest of the world towards the long, long conflict between Iran and Iraq? Iranian attacks in the last three weeks have led to the biggest battles fought anywhere in the world for at least a decade. Even allowing for the exaggerations of war, casualties on both sides number thousands every few days. Both are using limited air power to attack cities and civilians far from the front line. The outcome, if either Iran or Iraq should gain the military advantage, will affect the shape of Middle East events for decades. World oil supplies, from neighbouring countries as well as from the two combatants, are under threat. The war is being fought close to the border of the Soviet Union, and in a region riddled with volatile animosities. Surely the international pressure for a settlement should be enormous.

To dismiss the fighting as simply an incomprehensible scrap between Muslim fanatics is surely too simple. It is not sufficient to recall that Iraq was the aggressor, in September, 1980, and that if Iraqis are fighting desperate defensive battles now, this is no more than they deserve. Part of the answer to the world’s indifference must lie in the uncertain attitudes of the United States and the Soviet Union. When neither super-Power has clearly chosen sides, most other States seem reluctant to do so. Without a clear lead from the largest Powers, no adequate pressure has been built up to encourage a negotiated settlement. These are miserable reflections about the general

behaviour of a supposedly peace-loving world community. Not that the Americans or the Russians can resist dabbling in such troubled waters. Both, either directly or by proxy, have provided degrees of help to both Iran and Iraq. Generally the help has been in secret, an attempt to back both horses in a two-horse race, but not to wager much on either. More recently, the extent of American aid to Iran, however bad relations may be between Washington and the Ayatollah’s regime, has been displayed in the United States. The Soviet Union, inheritor of hundreds of years of Russian mistrust of Persians, is showing increasing generosity to Iraq. Yet both great Powers seem to do no more than maintain the capability of Iran and Iraq to fight on. Neither is promoting a winner; both are trying to ensure there will be no loser.

Humanitarian considerations aside, that surely is the most sensible attitude for outsiders. A victorious and fanatical Iran would menace half a dozen weaker neighbours. Even the. Soviet Union, still at war in neighbouring Afghanistan, would feel uneasy with such a regime on its southern border. A victorious Iraq would be less powerful and probably less erratic. It would still disturb the fragile peace elsewhere in the Middle East. Nor is Iran without its Muslim supporters, and taking revenge on behalf of one’s friends is not unknown in the Arab world. An Iraqi victory might be no more than a prelude to a new, wider war. Yet to contemplate a permanent, major war astride the oil export lanes of the Gulf is a grim prospect. The United Nations remains as impotent as ever. Regional groupings of Arab and Muslim countries have been unable to make progress in encouraging a settlement. The outcome still seems to depend on the bravery of Iran’s human-wave attackers; and on the more sophisticated weapons and military skills of Iraq’s smaller forces. The whole bleak business is hardly helped by the pretence elsewhere that one of the most devastating wars for many years can be ignored.